Bodø/Glimt vs SK Brann - AI Prediction & Analysis

Bodø/Glimt sit 3rd with 19 points, just 6 clear of 6th-placed Brann. They've won three straight and know a slip-up here could drop them out of the top spots. With no European distractions, their focus is fully on the league. Brann, on the other hand, have lost two away on the bounce and are under pressure to halt the slide. But their motivation is obvious – close the gap and stay in the top half. However, Brann's massive injury list (7 key players out) will seriously dampen their confidence. Bodø/Glimt smell blood and will go for the kill.

Bodø/Glimt are in blistering home form: 5-0 vs Tromsø, 5-0 vs IK Start, 3-0 vs Aalesund – three consecutive home wins with 13 goals scored and 0 conceded. Their xG numbers back it up: home avg xG 2.7, NPxG 2.7. They're overperforming slightly but creating plenty. Brann's away form is a rollercoaster: they scored in every away match (7/7) but also conceded in all but maybe one. Their last two away losses (2-1 at Aalesund, 7-5 at Bodø) show they leak goals. The 7-5 thriller in the reverse fixture is fresh – Brann actually had better xG (2.88 to 1.64) but lost. That suggests they can hurt Bodø, but their defense is Swiss cheese.

Brann are absolutely decimated by injuries. Seven key players are out: goalkeeper Dyngeland, defenders De Roeve, Knudsen, Pedersen, midfielders Gudmundsson and Sørensen, and forward Magnússon. That's their entire spine missing. The backup keeper Vidtun Nilsen starts, and the makeshift defense will be exploited by Bodø's high-pressing attack. Bodø/Glimt, in contrast, have only one rotation player missing (Vetti). Their full-strength XI features stars like Hauge, Høgh, and Berg – all available. The squad depth gap is enormous.

Both teams are labeled 'defensive' but the numbers tell a different story. Bodø/Glimt average 60.7% possession at home and create tons of chances (avg 5.33 big chances per marker match). Brann, despite being 'defensive', have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 away games. Their own style is corner-heavy, which adds to goal threat. This matchup historically produces goals: the last H2H ended 7-5, and all recent meetings cleared 2.5. With Brann's weakened backline, expect Bodø to dominate possession and create overloads. Set pieces will be key – both teams average high corner counts.

HOME MARKERS: 1) vs Brann (7-5): wild game, Bodø out-xG'd 1.64-2.88 but converted penalties and chances. Brann had 6 SoT and 2.12 NPxG. 2) vs IK Start (5-0): total domination, 4.34 xG, 7 BC, 13 corners. 3) vs Aalesund (3-0): 3.51 xG, 4 BC, 11 corners. 4) vs Fredrikstad (5-0): 3.32 xG, 4 BC. Pattern: Bodø create heavy xG and rack up corners (avg 13.5 total). All matches went Over 2.5. AWAY MARKERS: 1) at Bodø (5-7): Brann actually had 2.88 xG, 2.12 NPxG, and scored 5. 2) at Tromsø (5-0): they won 5-0 but were out-xG'd 2.47-1.06 – huge overperformance. 3) at Viking (2-3): another high-scoring loss with 1.68 xG for, 2.31 against. Pattern: Brann's away matches average 4.08 total xG, and all three went Over 2.5. They also averaged 11.33 total corners. CONCLUSION: When these teams meet, goals are inevitable. Both create chances and have leaky defenses, especially Brann now with injuries.

Three meetings in 12 months: 7-5 (May 2026), 2-1 (Oct 2025), 3-0 (June 2025). All three went Over 2.5. Even the 3-0 had 1.71 xG for Bodø and 0.99 for Brann – not a classic but still three goals. The 7-5 thriller is the most recent and perfectly captures the dynamics: both teams attack, defenses are secondary. H2H averages show 3.43 total xG, 9.22 total corners, and 3.55 yellow cards. Patterns hold: high scoring, many corners, cards near league average. With same coaches on both sides, tactical continuity supports these trends.

Small markets: Corners Over 10.5 at 1.73. Home markers avg 13.72 total corners, away markers avg 11.33 – both comfortably above 10.5. H2H corners average 9.22, but the most recent match had 13. With Bodø's high possession (60%+) and Brann's corner-heavy style, 11+ corners is likely. Yellow cards: league avg 3.6. Home markers total yellows avg 2.67, away markers 3.78 – close to the line. No referee assigned makes card markets risky. First half goals: home markers avg 3.61 1H goals! That's insane. Even if an anomaly, 1H Over 1.5 looks strong – both teams have scored in first half in most markers. But no odds available. Recommended: Corners Over 10.5.

The market has moved massively. Over 2.5 shortened from 2.88 to 1.29 – a 55% drop. Under 2.5 drifted from 1.40 to 3.60. This reflects the market's anticipation of goals. My probability estimate for Over 2.5 is 90% (all markers and H2H went over). That gives fair odds of 1.11, so current 1.29 offers an EV of +16.1%. BTTS Yes at 1.53 also has value: Brann have scored in all 7 away matches, and Bodø score for fun at home. Estimate 80% probability (fair 1.25, EV +22.4%). Home win at 1.30: fair probability 75% (fair odds 1.33), slight value but less attractive. The odds movements confirm market leans heavily towards goals – we agree.