Bologna vs Inter - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is the final matchday of Serie A, and the dynamic between these two sides couldn't be more different. Inter have already sealed the Scudetto with 86 points – a 31-point gap over Bologna. They are champions, but with nothing tangible left to play for. The risk of mental relaxation is real. Their manager Chivu might rotate or simply see lower intensity. Bologna, sitting 8th with 55 points, are still fighting for a European spot. A win could leapfrog them into the Conference League places, depending on other results. The home crowd will be behind them, and the players know a win here could define their season. The contrast is stark: Inter playing for pride, Bologna playing for a continental ticket. This motivational edge is worth at least half a goal in itself.

Bologna's recent form is a mixed bag. They lost 0-1 to Atalanta (xG 0.79-0.70) but then beat Napoli 3-2 away (xG 0.75-1.32, overperforming), drew 0-0 with Cagliari (xG 0.49-1.07), and lost 0-2 to Roma (xG 0.50-2.13). Their home form has been poor: only 2 wins in the last 7 at home, with a -0.52 xG underperformance. They struggle to create high-quality chances at home. Inter, on the other hand, have been rampant. Over their last 7, they scored 2.2 goals per game from 1.59 xG – significant overperformance. Away from home, they are even more dominant: 2.22 goals per game from 1.53 xG. However, that overperformance suggests regression is due. Their last away match was a 3-0 win at Lazio (with a red card), but before that they drew 2-2 at Torino. Inter's form is formidable, but the numbers hint at potential cooling.

Bologna are without two key players: midfielder Michel Aebischer and defender Nicolò Casale. Aebischer is vital for ball progression and defensive cover, while Casale is a leader at the back. With both missing, Bologna's already leaky defense (conceding 1.88 xG per home marker match) is even more vulnerable. Inter have almost full strength. Only Hakan Çalhanoğlu is doubtful, but he is a rotation option. The core of Barella, Mkhitaryan, and Lautaro Martínez is available. This gives Inter a clear squad advantage, but the key question is whether they will play at full throttle.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy, but this is a mismatch in quality. Bologna, despite high possession at home (55%), often concede big chances. In their marker matches, they allowed 4.45 big chances per game. Inter, with 60.6% possession away, create 3.06 big chances per match. The tactical battle will be Inter's patient buildup against Bologna's attempts to counter. However, Bologna's defensive structure has been breached repeatedly by top sides. The game could see Inter dominate possession and create multiple chances, but Bologna have shown they can score on the counter. The earlier 4-3 H2H shows this matchup can produce goals. Expect Inter to control the tempo, but with their motivation in question, Bologna might find spaces.

Bologna's home markers against strong teams tell a clear story of defensive frailty. Against Roma (0-2), they had 0 big chances and 2.13 xGA. Against Aston Villa (1-3), they allowed 1.64 xGA and 4 big chances. Against Celtic (2-2, red card), they conceded 2.11 xGA. Only against a distracted Inter side did they win 4-3, but even then they allowed 1.52 xGA. The pattern: Bologna struggle to contain elite attacks, conceding an average of 1.88 xG and 4.45 big chances per game. Their own xG is just 0.98. Inter's away markers show dominance. They averaged 1.68 xG, 3.06 big chances, and 60.6% possession. They kept clean sheets in 4 of 7 marker matches, but the exceptions were high-scoring (2-2 at Torino, 3-4 at Bologna). Inter's defense is solid but can be breached by a determined home side. The pattern overlap: expect Inter to create chances, but Bologna can score at home, especially given the reverse fixture.

Only two meetings in the last 12 months, both this season. At Bologna in December, the hosts won 4-3 in a chaotic match. Bologna had a penalty, Inter dominated possession (58%) and shots (14-8), but Bologna were clinical, scoring from 1.45 xG. At Inter in January, Inter won 3-1, dominating xG 2.93-0.85 and big chances 9-2. Both matches had over 2.5 goals and BTTS. The pattern: Inter control the play, but Bologna can be clinical at home. The high goal count suggests this fixture is prone to goals. Coaches are the same, squads have minor changes. The H2H supports an open game.

Small markets reveal interesting patterns. Bologna's home markers average 10.30 corners, 3.48 yellows, and 7.35 shots on target. Inter's away markers average 8.84 corners, 2.68 yellows, and 7.52 shots on target. Total shots on target are similar, but Inter's big chance creation is higher. Fouls: Bologna average 27.14 total, Inter 21.32 – a 5.8 foul difference. This suggests Bologna may commit more fouls, leading to cards. First-half patterns: Bologna concede 1.26 goals in the first half at home, while Inter score 0.99 away. This points to Inter potentially scoring early. Bologna's 1H xG is only 0.41, so they struggle to start fast. The first half could see Inter take the lead.

The odds have moved notably. Inter's draw no bet drifted from 1.53 to 1.61, while Bologna's shortened from 2.38 to 2.20. This suggests money coming for Bologna. The draw drifted from 3.50 to 3.75, indicating less confidence in a stalemate. Over 3.5 cards drifted from 1.91 to 2.25, under 3.5 shortened – likely due to referee Bonacina's average of 4.36 cards, but market disagrees. For the match, Inter are slight favorites at 2.20 (fair odds 2.32), Bologna at 3.00 (fair 3.16), draw at 3.75 (fair 3.95). No clear value on the outright given Inter's quality, but Bologna's motivational edge could make them worth a punt at home. Over 2.5 at 1.57 has a fair probability of 63.7% given the H2H and marker patterns, which is close to the implied 63.7% (1/1.57) – no edge. BTTS Yes at 1.50 is priced tightly. The value might be in Bologna +0.25 or corners markets.