Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense - AI Prediction & Analysis

Cruzeiro sit 13th with 20 points, just 4 points clear of the relegation zone, so every home win matters. They have a Libertadores clash in 4 days, but rotation risk is low – the squad depth is adequate, and Artur Jorge will field a strong XI to secure three points against the bottom side. Chapecoense are dead last with only 9 points, 6 points from safety. Desperation is high, but their away record is abysmal: no wins, few goals, and a leaky defense. The motivation edge goes to Chapecoense due to survival stakes, but they lack the quality to match Cruzeiro at home.

Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, including convincing victories against Grêmio (2-0, xG 1.85-0.48) and Red Bull Bragantino (2-1, xG 2.03-0.59). Their home xG average is 1.37, and they create big chances (2.22 per match). The team is scoring consistently – 13 goals in 11 home games. Chapecoense's away form is a disaster: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in their last 5 away trips. They have scored only 4 goals away all season (0.57 per game) while conceding 2.80 xG against. Their last away match was a 1-1 draw at Mirassol (xG 0.42-1.13), but they were thoroughly outplayed. Against stronger opposition like Internacional (0-2, xG 0.46-3.69) and Athletico (0-2, xG 0.18-1.23), they offered nothing going forward.

Cruzeiro are missing three key players: goalkeeper Cássio (doubtful), midfielder Keny Arroyo, and midfielder Matheus Henrique. However, the starting XI still boasts quality with Matheus Pereira and Kaio Jorge. Chapecoense are decimated by injuries: 7 key players are unavailable, including defenders Bressan, Jhonnathan, Rafael Thyere, and Victor Caetano, plus midfielders Bruno Matias, Camilo, and Everton. That's their entire defensive spine. The backups are inexperienced, and the backline will be vulnerable against Cruzeiro's attack. With so many absentees, Chapecoense's defensive solidity – already poor – takes another hit.

Cruzeiro at home are possession-dominant (54.9%) and build through the middle. They average 13.97 shots and 4.70 shots on target per home game. Chapecoense away play a low block (43.3% possession), but without key defenders, that low block is fragile. They allow 21.11 shots and 7.00 shots on target away. The tactical clash favors Cruzeiro: they have the creativity to break down a weakened defensive unit. Expect Cruzeiro to control the game, create multiple big chances, and keep Chapecoense pinned in their half. Corners should favor the home side, and the match could see a high volume of fouls and cards due to Chapecoense's desperate defending.

Cruzeiro's home markers (11 matches) show consistent dominance: average xG 1.55 for, 0.86 against, 2.22 big chances created, and 8.30 total corners. Key matches: 2-0 vs Grêmio (xG 1.85-0.48, 4 corners), 2-1 vs Bragantino (xG 2.03-0.59, 9 corners), 3-0 vs Vitória (xG 1.94-0.12, 11 corners). Even in draws (0-0 vs Santos, xG 1.22-0.12, 6 corners), they controlled the game. Only 3 of 11 matches featured an early red card, so the pattern is reliable: Cruzeiro dominate possession, create chances, and earn corners. Chapecoense's away markers (only 3 matches) paint a grim picture: average xG for 0.41, against 2.80, big chances for 0.44, corners for 1.78. In their 1-1 draw at Mirassol, they had 0.42 xG and 1 corner. At Internacional, 0.46 xG and 4 corners. At Vasco da Gama, 0.31 xG and 0 corners. They are consistently outshot and outcornered. The tactical pattern is clear: Cruzeiro will dominate, while Chapecoense will struggle to create anything.

No meetings found between these teams in the last 12 months. Historical record (10 matches) shows Cruzeiro 4 wins, 2 draws, Chapecoense 4 wins, but those data are too old to inform current form.

First half: Cruzeiro average 0.92 goals at home, Chapecoense 0.00 away. 1H home win at 1.83 looks plausible given Cruzeiro's strong starts. Corners: home avg 5.05, away avg 1.78, total avg 9.78 – under 10.5 at 1.80 has value. Yellow cards: home avg 2.47, away avg 4.33 (chapecoense foul heavily away). League baseline is 4.7, so over 5.5 at 1.83 is attractive. Fouls: home avg 15.15, away avg 14.33 – high physicality expected.

Home win at 1.33 (fair 1.42) offers no value. Draw at 5.00 (fair 5.35) and away win at 8.50 (fair 9.09) also lack value. However, under 2.5 goals at 2.05 (fair 1.82) shows positive EV. Bookmaker margin-removed probabilities imply 48.8% for under, but my estimate is 55% – value bet. Corners under 10.5 at 1.80 (fair 1.54) also has value. Yellow cards over 5.5 at 1.83 (fair 1.67) is another value spot. The odds movement shows money coming for Chapecoense (Double chance X2 shortened, away win shortened), but that may be noise against the data.