FCV Dender vs Lommel SK - AI Prediction & Analysis

FCV Dender are 16th in the table with only 19 points from 30 matches, a -27 goal difference, and are deep in relegation trouble. Despite being at home, they have lost four of their last five home games and are desperate for a win. Lommel SK, on the other hand, are on a hot streak with five wins in their last six matches. Their league position is unknown, but their form suggests they are pushing for a playoff spot or survival. The motivation is high for both, but Lommel clearly have the momentum and confidence.

Dender's home form is a disaster: in their last five home matches they conceded 4, 3, 2, 3, and 2 goals. Their xG at home averages 1.4 but they only score 1.1, indicating underperformance and a leaky defense. Lommel's away form is excellent: they won 3-1, 2-1, and 2-1 in their last three away games. Their xG underperformance (0.5 goals from 1.07 xG) suggests they are due for a scoring burst. The contrast is clear: Dender cannot defend, and Lommel are scoring freely.

Dender are missing four key players: forward Alireza Jahanbakhsh, defender Benjamin Fredrick, midfielder David Hrnčár, and midfielder Fabio Ferraro. That's their entire spine – no reliable source of goals or defensive stability. Lommel have a full squad with no absences. This advantage is critical: Dender's already weak defense and attack are further depleted.

Both teams are labeled as defensive and corner-heavy, but the data tells a different story. Dender's home markers average 3.45 total xG and 9.6 corners per game. Lommel's away markers average 3.15 total xG and 12.4 corners. The H2H saw 5 goals and 13 corners. Despite the defensive labels, these teams are consistently involved in high-scoring, high-corner matches. The clash of two defensive styles often produces few chances, but here the numbers point to the opposite: expect goals and corners.

Dender home markers (11 matches): 9 of 11 went Over 2.5, with the only exceptions being 1-0 and 0-1. The 1-0 win vs Antwerp saw only 1.09 xG for and 0.47 against, but that was an anomaly. In the other 9 matches, total goals ranged from 3 to 6. Big chances averaged 5.97 per game. Lommel away markers (4 matches): 3 of 4 went Over 2.5, with the only under being 0-1. In the three overs, they scored 3, 2, and 2 goals while conceding 1, 1, and 1. Corners averaged 12.4 per game. The pattern is clear: both teams are involved in matches that produce goals and set pieces. The small sample for Lommel is a concern, but the consistency is striking.

The only recent meeting was on 2026-05-17, a 3-2 win for Lommel away. The match had 17 shots each, 7 corners for Dender and 6 for Lommel (total 13), 3 yellow cards, and 0 penalties. It was an open, high-scoring affair that aligns perfectly with the marker data. Both coaches and squads are unchanged from that match.

Home markers: Dender avg 1.35 xG for, 2.10 against (total 3.45). Corners: 3.95 for, 5.64 against (total 9.59). Yellow cards: 2.57 for, 0.69 against (total 3.26). Away markers: Lommel avg 1.02 xG for, 2.13 against (total 3.15). Corners: 2.94 for, 9.50 against (total 12.44). Yellow cards: 1.39 for, 2.17 against (total 3.56). First-half goals: Dender home 2.03 total, Lommel away 1.39 total. The numbers suggest high totals across the board.

Over 2.5 has shortened 15% from 2.05 to 1.75, indicating sharp money. Under 2.5 has drifted 17% from 1.75 to 2.05. This is a strong market signal. Margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 42.8% (fair odds 2.34), Draw 27.2% (3.67), Away 30.0% (3.34). My estimates: Home 30%, Draw 25%, Away 45% – implying value on Away Win (EV = 0.45*3.00 -1 = +0.35). BTTS Yes at 1.61 is also valuable given 80%+ hit rate in markers.