Getafe vs Osasuna - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is the final matchday of the LaLiga season, and both teams have clear incentives. Getafe sit 7th on 48 points, just two points off the European places. A win could leapfrog them into a continental spot, so they'll be fully focused. Osasuna are 16th with 42 points, likely safe from relegation but not mathematically certain – a point would all but secure survival. Their recent form has been poor (5 losses in 6), and they face a tough trip to a compact Getafe side. The home side’s motivation is sharper: they need the win, while Osasuna would probably accept a draw. This imbalance could influence the tempo – Getafe will push, but Osasuna will sit deep and counter. Expect a tight, cautious affair with both teams prioritizing defensive solidity.

Getafe come into this on a mixed run. They've won 2 of their last 5, but those wins were narrow: 2-0 vs Athletic Club (xG 1.94-0.57) and 1-0 at Elche (xG 0.46-0.08, with a red card for Elche). Their home form is decent – 3 wins in the last 6 at the Coliseum – but they've struggled to score consistently, averaging just 1.0 goals per home match. The xG divergence at home is fair (avg xG 0.91 vs 1.0 goals), but they've underperformed overall. Osasuna are in a rut: 1 win in 7, with 5 losses. Away from home, they've lost 4 of the last 5, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of those. However, they did create chances – xG away averages 1.42 against, but they also averaged 0.92 for. Their big chance totals are decent (1.34 per match), but they've been let down by defending. Both teams have leaky periods, but the overall trend points to a low-scoring encounter given the tactical matchup.

Getafe are without key defender Djené and forward Juanmi Latasa, both injured. Kiko Femenía is doubtful, and Martín Satriano also missing. That's four important absentees, especially in defense. Bordalás will likely field a 5-3-2 with David Soria in goal, but the backline lacks its usual solidity. Osasuna are missing midfielder Raúl Moro (key) and Iker Muñoz (doubtful). Their 4-2-3-1 relies on Budimir up front, but without Moro's creativity, they may struggle to break down a packed defense. The absences slightly favor Getafe, but neither team is at full strength. The hosts' defensive injuries could be exploited, but Osasuna's attack has been blunt away from home (avg 2.68 shots on target). The net effect is likely a reduction in attacking quality from both sides.

This is a clash of two defensive, low-block teams. Getafe average 43.3% possession at home, Osasuna 48.5% away – neither dominates the ball. Both rely on set pieces and counter-attacks. Getafe's home markers show they concede few chances (avg xG against 0.70) but also create limited opportunities (xG for 1.13). Osasuna away create even less (xG for 0.92) but concede more (1.42). The matchup suggests a game with few clear-cut chances from open play. Set pieces could be the main source of goals – Getafe average 4 corners for at home, Osasuna 3.66 away. Corners total could exceed 8.5 as both teams defend deep and concede corners. The tempo will be slow, with many fouls (Getafe home fouls avg 13.34, Osasuna away 13.60). This screams Under 2.5 with plenty of cards.

Getafe's home markers reveal a clear pattern: low-scoring, physical games. Against Mallorca (3-1) they had a rare high-scoring game, but that was an outlier. In 6 of 8 home markers, the total goals were under 2.5, including tough matches against Athletic Club (2-0), Sevilla (0-1), and Valencia (0-1). Their xG totals are modest – only twice above 1.5 xG for. The red cards in two matches (vs Sevilla, vs Valencia) skewed the averages, but even without those, the pattern holds. Osasuna's away markers are more varied: they've been involved in higher-scoring games (2-3 vs Levante, 2-2 vs Alavés, 1-3 vs Real Sociedad) but also low-scoring (0-1 vs Athletic, 0-0 vs Elche). Their defense is leaky (avg xG against 1.42), but they face a Getafe attack that lacks firepower. The overlap in styles suggests a game that hovers around the 2-goal mark. The consistent factor is fouls – both teams average high foul counts (Getafe home 13.34, Osasuna away 13.60), leading to cards. Yellow card totals average around 5.4 in both sets of markers, above the league average of 4.6.

Only one head-to-head meeting in the last 12 months: Getafe won 2-1 away at Osasuna in October 2025. That game had an xG of 0.82-0.43 in Getafe's favor, with 2 big chances to 1. Corners were 6-1 to Getafe, and there were 4 yellow cards for Getafe, 1 for Osasuna. It was a tight, physical match with low xG total (1.25). The pattern fits the expected narrative: few goals, many fouls. Both coaches are the same, and squads have only minor changes. The H2H supports a low-scoring, card-heavy affair.

Small markets analysis: Getafe's home markers average 7.01 total corners, Osasuna's away average 8.94. The bookmaker line for corners is Over 8.5 at 1.73 – given the set-piece nature of both teams, this could be value. Yellow cards: Getafe home avg 5.40, Osasuna away avg 5.32, league avg 4.6. Over 6.5 cards at 2.00 is an option, but the average is just above 5, so Under 6.5 at 1.73 might be safer. Shots on target averages are low: Getafe home 3.79 for, 3.14 against; Osasuna away 2.68 for, 4.38 against. Total shots on target around 7, which is low. First-half goals: Getafe home 1H goals avg 0.94, Osasuna away 1H goals avg 0.61. But 1H xG is low (0.83 and 1.02 total respectively). 1H corners: Getafe home 3.90, Osasuna away 3.10. So perhaps Under 1.5 in 1H goals is plausible. The data points to a slow start.

The odds movement is dramatic: Under 2.5 shortened from 3.00 to 1.36 (a 55% drop), while Over 2.5 drifted from 1.40 to 3.20. This signals heavy money on Under. The fair probabilities (margin-removed) give Home 37.4%, Draw 34.6%, Away 28.0%. My estimates align with these – I see Getafe as slight favorites but not by much. The Under 2.5 market: if we estimate a 72% chance of under (based on marker patterns and style), fair odds would be 1.39. The current 1.36 is slightly short but still near fair. There might be a small value on Under 2.5 considering the heavy support. However, the drift on Over suggests books are comfortable taking unders. I'll still recommend Under 2.5 as the main bet, but with medium confidence given the odds compression. For corners, Over 8.5 at 1.73 seems reasonable given the averages.