KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg BK - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are level on points, just above the relegation zone. KFUM Oslo have a slight advantage playing at home, where they have won three of their last five. Rosenborg, historically one of Norway's top sides, are in a crisis - they have failed to score in four consecutive away matches. With both teams desperate for points, expect a cautious start. KFUM's defensive style at home and Rosenborg's inability to score away suggest a low-scoring battle. The calendar isn't congested, so full focus is on this league fixture.

KFUM Oslo have been inconsistent. Their home markers show they can keep clean sheets (2 in 3 home markers) but also leak goals (3). Their xG at home (1.12 for, 1.40 against) indicates they create slightly fewer chances than they concede. Rosenborg away form is abysmal: 0 goals in their last 4 away, with xG for of just 0.96 and xG against of 2.67. They are heavily outplayed on the road. The trend is clear: Rosenborg struggle to create, let alone score, away from home. KFUM's recent home win over Sarpsborg (1-0) was a grind, while Rosenborg's away losses are systematic.

KFUM are missing four key players including defenders Nouri, Aleesami, Berglie and forward Moussa Njie - all injured. This weakens both their defense and attack. Rosenborg are missing two key defenders: Pereira and Svensson. Both teams' defenses are depleted, which could lead to opportunities, but given the attacking struggles, it might not translate to goals. KFUM's attacking options are limited without Njie, while Rosenborg's makeshift backline has been exposed on the road.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy. KFUM average 49% possession at home, Rosenborg 48% away. This is not a match between free-flowing attackers. Set pieces and corners could be a key route to goal. The corner data suggests a combined average of around 9-10 total corners, which aligns with the bookmaker line of 9.5. Both teams are prone to fouls and cards, but the referee Mischa Kellerhals averages slightly below league average for yellows.

KFUM's home markers (3 matches) showed total goals of 1, 3, and 2 - with Under 2.5 hitting in 2 of 3. The 1-0 win over Sarpsborg saw KFUM create 1.44 xG vs 1.60, but a late red card for Sarpsborg sealed it. The 1-2 loss to Sandefjord saw KFUM out-xG'd 0.48-1.87, and the 2-0 win over Start was dominant. Rosenborg's away markers (4 matches) saw totals of 3, 0, 2, and 2 - Under 2.5 hitting in 3 of 4. The 0-3 loss to Viking was a blowout (xG 0.99-4.18). The 0-0 draw at Sandefjord was a rare clean sheet but with low xG. The 0-2 losses to Tromsø and Molde were systematic failures. The pattern is consistent: when these teams play, especially away for Rosenborg, goals are scarce. This screams Under 2.5 and BTTS No.

In two meetings last season, KFUM won 4-1 at home and drew 1-1 away. The home win was dominant, with KFUM creating 2.19 xG to Rosenborg's 1.28. However, those matches saw more goals. But both teams have changed squads (8 changes for KFUM, 10 for Rosenborg) and are in different form now. The H2H suggests KFUM have a psychological edge, but recent trends override history here.

First half patterns: KFUM home 1H corners avg 2.11, Rosenborg away 1H corners avg 2.61, total 4.72 - not high. 1H goals: KFUM home 1H goals avg 0.78, Rosenborg away 1H goals NO DATA but 1H xG for 0.45, against 1.41. Expect quiet first halves. Yellow cards: KFUM home total yellows 4.66, Rosenborg away total 4.28, combined around 4.5. Referee slightly below league average.

Margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 40.8%, Draw 26.8%, Away 32.4%. Market odds: Home 2.30, Draw 3.50, Away 2.90. Home win odds 2.30 imply 43.5%, slightly above fair - no value. Under 2.5 at 2.08 offers value. My estimate: given trends, Under 2.5 probability around 55-60%, fair odds 1.67-1.82, so 2.08 is value. BTTS No at 2.20 also looks valuable - Rosenborg haven't scored away in 4, and KFUM kept clean sheets in 2 of 3 home markers.