Lazio vs Pisa - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is the penultimate matchday of the season, and neither side has anything left to play for. Lazio sit 9th with 51 points, safe from relegation and too far from Europe. Their recent form has been abysmal – two straight defeats, no goals in the last two matches, and a 0-3 home loss to Inter. Motivation is near zero. Pisa are already relegated, dead last with 18 points, and have lost 8 consecutive matches. They haven't won away all season. The only thing at stake is pride, and both teams have one eye on the summer break. The lack of competitive tension screams a low-intensity affair.

Lazio's last seven matches: two wins, two draws, three losses. The 0-3 home defeat to Inter was a non-event after a red card. The 3-3 draw with Udinese saw 2.39 xG but also conceded 5 big chances. At home, they've alternated losses and draws – no consistency. Pisa have lost 8 straight. Their xG numbers tell a different story: they average 1.05 xG per match overall but only score 0.5 goals. That's a -0.55 underperformance that screams regression. Away from home they average 0.71 xG per match but concede 2.14. Their defense is leaky, but their attack creates chances – they just can't finish. The last away match against Parma saw 1.71 xG but a 0-1 loss.

Lazio are decimated. Key absentees: goalkeepers Provedel and Motta, midfielder Rovella, forward Zaccagni, left-back Tavares, and defender Patric. That's 7 key players missing, including the captain and the main creative outlet. The starting XI is a patchwork 4-3-3 with backup goalkeeper Furlanetto and a midfield of Bašić, Belahyane, and Dele-Bashiru – not exactly goal-getters. Pisa also miss key players: defender Caracciolo, midfielder Loyola, and forward Tramoni. But their squad is deeper in rotation. The absences hurt Lazio more, especially in attack.

Both teams are defensive-minded. Lazio average 55.8% possession at home but have been poor at creating chances without their key attackers. Pisa play a low block, averaging 43.8% possession away and are card- and corner-heavy. The tactical battle: Lazio will have the ball but lack incision. Pisa will sit deep and look to counter. Set-pieces could be the only source of goals. The match is likely to be a chess match with few genuine chances.

Lazio's home markers against similar opposition (defensive, mid/low-block teams) show averages: xG for 1.87, xG against 1.32, corners 7.78, cards 5.78. Individual matches: vs Genoa 3-2 (2.13-1.76 xG, 5 corners, 5 cards), vs Fiorentina 2-2 (2.73-1.72 xG, 10 corners, 8 cards), vs Cremonese 0-0 (0.41-0.69 xG, 3 corners, 7 cards), vs Lecce 2-0 (1.89-0.62 xG, 10 corners, 2 cards). High variance – the 0-0 against Cremonese is a red flag. Pisa's away markers: vs Parma 0-1 (1.71-1.64 xG, 11 corners, 3 cards), vs Juventus 0-4 (0.45-2.89 xG, 8 corners, 4 cards), vs Udinese 2-2 (1.48-2.23 xG, 11 corners, 5 cards), vs Sassuolo 2-2 (1.54-1.76 xG, 7 corners, 3 cards). Total goals in these matches averaged 3.0, but Pisa only scored in two of four. Corners consistently over 8.5 in 3 of 4. The pattern: Pisa's matches have goals but they often struggle to convert their xG. Lazio's home markers show they can be stifled by a disciplined defense. The overlap: both metrics suggest a tight game with limited goals. Lazio's home NPxG is only 1.16, and Pisa's away NPxG against is 1.97 – but Lazio's attack is weakened. Hence Under 2.5 and BTTS No are strongly supported.

Only one H2H in the last 12 months: a 0-0 draw in October 2025. Lazio had 61% possession, 11 shots, 6 on target, but only 0.48 xG. Pisa had 0.93 xG with 2 big chances. The match was even, low on quality. Both coaches are the same, so tactical familiarity exists. That 0-0 is a perfect template for what we might see again.

Small markets: Lazio home markers average 7.78 total corners, Pisa away markers average 9.50. Corner over 8.5 is priced at 1.80. Cards: Lazio home markers average 5.78 yellows, Pisa away average 3.73. Referee Ferrieri Caputi averages 3.89 yellows per match – below league average. So cards could be low. 1H patterns: Lazio home markers average 0.22 1H goals, Pisa away 1.00 – but Pisa's 1H goals have been scored against stronger sides. Given low intensity, 1H Under 0.5 or Under 1.5 could be considered.

Bookmaker fair probabilities (margin-removed): Lazio 61%, Draw 22.5%, Pisa 16.5%. My estimates: Lazio 55%, Draw 30%, Pisa 15% – so Lazio is overpriced. Under 2.5 is at 2.00, fair odds around 1.82 based on marker data – value. BTTS No at 1.95, fair around 1.65 – big value. Corners over 8.5 at 1.80, fair around 1.70 – slight value. The odds movements show money coming for Pisa and BTTS Yes, which is contrary to the narrative. That might be sharp money, but I trust the structural data.