Mirassol vs Fluminense - AI Prediction & Analysis

Mirassol are desperate. Rock bottom with 13 points, they need points to avoid relegation early. Their next match is away to Lanús in Libertadores, but that's a distraction—their primary focus must be the league. Fluminense sit third with 30 points, comfortably in the top four. They have a Libertadores match in four days against Deportivo La Guaira at home, which is more winnable than this tricky away trip. With six key players out injured, including midfield creators Canobbio, Alisson, Savarino, and Martinelli, Fluminense's motivation to rotate might be high. Mirassol, meanwhile, have a full week to prepare after this. The home side's relegation battle gives them a clear motivational edge.

Mirassol's home form is a mixed bag. They beat Corinthians 2-1 but needed a penalty and had just 0.23 NPxG from open play. Drew 1-1 with Chapecoense despite dominating xG 1.13-0.42. Lost to Bahia 1-2 even with a man advantage for most of the second half. The underlying numbers show they create chances at home—average xG 1.47—but defending is leaky (1.47 conceded xG). Fluminense are overperforming massively: 1.7 goals per match from 1.28 xG. That regression is already showing—they failed to score in two of their last three away games (0-2 at Internacional, 0-0 at Operário-PR). Their away form is inconsistent: three wins, two draws, two losses in seven. The 3-2 win at Santos was against ten men for 30 minutes. The 2-0 win at Remo came against a weak side. This isn't a team in dominant away form.

The injury list for Fluminense is devastating. Six key players out: Canobbio, Alisson, Savarino, Martinelli—all midfielders who provide creativity and ball progression. Also missing defenders Fuentes and Freytes. That's the entire left side and midfield engine. Without them, Fluminense lose their ability to control possession and create chances. In their last match without several of these players, they lost 2-0 away to Internacional, managing just 0.86 xG. Mirassol miss two key players: striker André Luís and defender Igor Formiga. But their squad is deeper relative to the level. The home side's formation is unchanged from recent matches. Fluminense's lineup is estimated—with so many out, coach Zubeldia must improvise. This heavily favors Mirassol.

Both teams prefer defensive organization, but the injury crisis changes everything. Fluminense's high-possession style (58.8% away) relies on midfielders to circulate and create. Without them, they'll struggle to break down Mirassol's low block. Mirassol are corner-heavy at home (avg 6.25 for) and card-heavy (2.24 yellows per match). They'll look to counter and use set pieces. Fluminense away also average 4.52 corners and 1.65 yellows, but with a makeshift midfield, they may concede more fouls and corners. This sets up for a scrappy, low-quality match. Possession might still favor Fluminense, but it will be sterile. The tempo should be slow, with few big chances. Both teams average total xG around 2.4-2.5, but with Fluminense's attacking absentees, the game could be even lower scoring.

Mirassol at home: 11 matches, but sample includes lower-tier opponents. Against similar defensive sides like Chapecoense (1-1, xG 1.13-0.42) they struggled to create clear chances. Against Corinthians (2-1) they relied on a penalty. Against Bahia (1-2) they were outplayed despite a red card for Bahia. The constants: high corners (avg 10.25 total), high yellows (avg 4.49 total), and low big chances (avg 3.64 total). Only three matches had over 2.5 goals, and only four saw both teams score. The pattern: Mirassol keep games tight and physical. Fluminense away: 7 matches, strength-filtered. Against Internacional (0-2) they had 0.86 xG and lost easily. Against Santos (3-2) they benefited from a red card. Against Coritiba (1-1) they had 67% possession but only 1.37 xG. Against Vasco (2-3) they conceded three. The pattern: Fluminense struggle to control games on the road against organized teams. They average 2.05 big chances conceded away. Their corners are moderate (avg 4.52 for, 5.19 against). The overlap: both teams produce low totals (under 2.5 goals in most matches), high corners (total avg 10.0+), and high cards (avg 4+). With Fluminense's key attackers missing, expect an even more defensive away performance. The match screams Under 2.5 and Over corners.

Only two meetings in the last 12 months, both in the 2025 Brasileirão. In October 2025 at Mirassol, the home side won 2-1, creating 1.23 xG to Fluminense's 0.88, with both teams having similar shots and corners. In November 2025 at Fluminense, the visitors won 1-0, but Mirassol had more possession (57%) and actually created more xG (1.41 to 2.48? Wait, data says xG 1.41-2.48 in favor of Fluminense—that's a high xG for Fluminense). Actually looking: Mirassol away had 1.41 xG, Fluminense 2.48? No, the data is from Mirassol's perspective: (A) vs Fluminense: 0-1 (xG 1.41-2.48). So Fluminense dominated xG but only scored once. The matches were tight, with total corners 7 and 10, and total cards 6 and 7. Both matches had under 2.5 goals. The pattern from H2H supports low scoring and physical play.

Both teams average similar total yellow cards (Mirassol 4.49, Fluminense 4.27), with Fluminense away averaging 2.62 yellows against. Mirassol home fouls avg 11.61 for, Fluminense away fouls avg 14.08 for—so plenty of stoppages. Mirassol's home corners are high (6.25 for, 4.00 against, total 10.25). Fluminense away corners are lower (4.52 for, 5.19 against, total 9.71). Over 9.5 corners is at 1.73—given both teams are corner-heavy, this looks valuable. First half patterns: Mirassol home average 1.29 1H goals, but that's inflated by a few high-scoring matches. Fluminense away average 0.80 1H goals. Both teams have moderate 1H corners. Red cards: Mirassol home avg 0.68 reds per match (high), but many from red cards not in this match. Still, card totals should be high.

Market moved heavily towards Under 2.5 (from 2.25 to 1.67) and away win drifted from 2.55 to 2.70. This reflects the injury news. Margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 36.3%, Draw 29.2%, Away 34.6%. My estimate: Mirassol win probability 35%, Draw 35%, Away 30%. The draw has value at 3.20 (implied 31.25%) vs my 35% (fair odds 2.86). Under 2.5 at 1.67: my estimate 62% (fair odds 1.61) — slight value. BTTS No at 1.91: my estimate 55% (fair odds 1.82) — decent value. Over 9.5 corners at 1.73: my estimate 60% (fair odds 1.67) — value. The biggest value is probably on the draw or double chance 1X.