Parma vs Sassuolo - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are comfortably mid-table with nothing to play for. Parma sit 13th with 42 points, Sassuolo 11th with 49 points – both safe from relegation and far from European spots. With only one match left after this, motivation is questionable. However, regional pride might keep it competitive. Parma are on a three-match losing streak, while Sassuolo have lost two in a row – both will want to end the slide. The low stakes suggest open, error-prone play, which often leads to goals. Neither side has defensive solidity, and with key absentees for Parma, the visitors have a clear edge in quality.

Parma’s recent form is poor: three losses then two draws. At home, they’ve been inconsistent – a 1-0 win over Pisa, a narrow 2-3 loss to Roma (with a red card), and a 1-1 draw with Napoli. Their xG numbers at home are fair (avg 0.82 for, 0.74 against? Actually home xG against is higher due to Roma and Cremonese matches). Sassuolo are equally erratic: wins over Milan and Cagliari mixed with losses to Torino and Genoa. Away from home, they underperform xG (avg 1.24 vs 1 goal scored), suggesting poor finishing. Both teams have leaky defenses – Parma concede big chances, Sassuolo allow shots. BTTS has been a common theme in Sassuolo’s away matches (4 of last 5).

Parma are decimated in attack. Four key players are out: midfielders Bernabé and Cremaschi, and forwards Kowalski and Frigan. That’s their entire creative engine missing. Coach Carlos Cuesta will rely on a weakened frontline. Sassuolo, conversely, are near full strength. Only defender Jay Idzes is doubtful, but the rest of the squad is available. Berardi, Pinamonti, and Laurienté form a dangerous front three. This disparity in squad depth heavily favors the visitors, especially in the final third.

Both teams are classified as defensive and corner-heavy, but the numbers tell a different story. Parma at home in marker matches conceded an average of 3.42 xG and 6.07 big chances – that’s not defensive, it’s sieve-like. Sassuolo away create 2.23 big chances per match and concede 3.53 – so both sides generate and concede chances. Possession is low for both (41.6% and 45.6%), so expect a transitional game with counter-attacks. Set pieces could be key: both teams average around 4.8 corners per match. The tactical battle is less about control and more about chaos, which screams goals.

Parma’s home markers are skewed by red cards, but patterns emerge. Vs Juventus (1-4): outclassed, allowed 4.14 xG and 7 big chances. Vs Lazio (0-1): competitive xG (1.08-1.35) but red card for Lazio reduced impact. Vs Udinese (0-2): another red card (for Parma) led to a loss. Key takeaway: when facing good attacks, Parma collapse. Sassuolo’s away markers are gold. All 5 matches had BTTS: vs Torino (1-2, xG 2.10-2.82), Juventus (1-1, xG 0.53-2.08), Lazio (1-2, xG 0.72-2.55), Udinese (2-1, xG 1.33-0.50), Bologna (1-1, xG 1.62-0.88). They create chances and concede – BTTS is a rock-solid pattern. Combined with Parma’s defensive frailty, expecting both to score is logical.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: a 1-1 draw in January 2026 at Sassuolo. Parma had the better xG (1.20-0.86) and created 2 big chances to 1. Corners were 7-4 in Parma’s favor, cards 1-2. That match had both teams scoring, consistent with the BTTS theme. Coaches and squads have changed slightly, but the pattern persists.

Corners average 8.66 in Parma home markers and 10.47 in Sassuolo away markers – combined around 9.5. The market line of 8.5 at 1.67 offers value. Yellow cards: Parma home markers average 3.72, Sassuolo away 4.77 – combined near 4.2. Referee Turrini averages 4.42 yellows, above league average 3.7. Over 3.5 cards at 2.00 is attractive. First-half goals are rare in both sets of markers: Parma home 1H avg 0.20 for, 1.56 against (but skewed by early goals conceded); Sassuolo away 1H avg 0.20 for, 0.60 against. So 1H Under 1.5 is likely but odds not given.

Bookmakers price this evenly: home 2.70, draw 3.40, away 2.63. Fair probabilities (margin removed) give home 35.5%, draw 28.2%, away 36.4%. My estimates: home 30%, draw 30%, away 40% – so draw has slight value (fair 3.33, offered 3.40). But the standout value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91. Given the patterns (BTTS in 5/5 Sassuolo away markers, Parma conceding heavily), I estimate a 65% chance of Over 2.5, implying fair odds of 1.54 – clear value. BTTS Yes at 1.67 also has value (my estimate 70%, fair 1.43). Corners Over 8.5 at 1.67 and Cards Over 3.5 at 2.00 are solid small-market plays.