Real Betis vs Levante UD - AI Prediction & Analysis

With just one game left in La Liga, both teams have very different motivations. Real Betis sit 5th with 57 points, already assured of European football next season. The final home match is about ending on a high note for the fans and possibly improving seeding if results elsewhere allow. Levante UD are 15th with 42 points, four above the relegation zone. They are not mathematically safe but have a comfortable cushion. A point should be enough, but given only a one-game sample of H2H (2-2 away) and their recent form (three straight wins), they are playing with confidence. However, the volatility of the final matchday means Levante might be cautious early but will push if needed. Betis have nothing to lose and will attack, but defensive absences could leave them exposed.

Betis have been in decent form but with a leaky defense at home. Their last home match was a 2-1 win over Elche where they conceded but created chances. The 3-0 win over Real Oviedo flattered them (xG 1.54-1.45). Overall, Betis average 1.8 goals scored at home but also concede 1.0. Recent matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5. Levante are on a hot streak: three straight wins, scoring 3, 3, and 2 goals respectively. Their away form is poor (1 win in 6) but they have scored in 5 of those. The 5-1 loss to Villarreal shows they can be blown away but also highlights their attacking intent. Levante's xG away is low (0.69) but they overperform slightly. The key is Betis' defense missing key men—three defenders out—which could make Levante's counter-attacks more dangerous.

Betis are without three key defenders: Marc Bartra, Angel Ortiz, and Aitor Ruibal (doubtful). That's the entire spine of the defense missing. Midfielder Sofyan Amrabat is also out. This forces Pellegrini to field a makeshift back four. The attack is intact with Isco, Antony, and Cucho Hernández. Levante miss two key midfielders: Víctor García and Carlos Álvarez (doubtful). Their attacking lineup is strong with Iván Romero and Carlos Espí. The absences clearly hurt Betis more, especially against a Levante side that has scored in 4 straight. The backline will be tested, and Betis may have to outscore the opponent.

Betis at home are possession-based (52.6% avg) and rely on wing play and set pieces. They are corner-heavy (4.6 for per game) but also concede corners (3.6). Levante away play a low block (36.6% possession) and hit on the counter. They concede many corners (9.2 away) and shots. This matchup favors Betis controlling the game, but Levante's counter-attacks could exploit Betis' weakened defense. Both teams are defensively oriented in style, but the defensive absences tilt the balance towards goals. Betis have scored in 14 of 15 home games; Levante have scored in 9 of 15 away. The clash of styles suggests a rare open game with chances at both ends.

Betis home markers (9 matches): 6 of 9 had over 2.5 goals, with an average total xG of 2.84. In the 2-1 win vs Elche (red card early), Betis created 2 big chances but conceded 1. Against Real Oviedo (3-0), they dominated xG but allowed 1.45 xG. The 0-0 vs Espanyol was an anomaly (xG 1.38-0.20, 3 big chances missed). The 4-0 vs Getafe was a thrashing (xG 3.30-1.42). Overall, Betis' home matches have been high-scoring when facing weaker teams; only two matches stayed under 2.5. Levante away markers (3 matches): They lost 5-1 to Villarreal (xG 0.75-2.22, 4 big chances allowed), 0-3 to Barcelona (xG 0.53-2.88), and 0-2 to Real Madrid (xG 0.80-2.88). All three matches had over 2.5 goals, with an average total xG of 3.28. Their corners conceded are massive (9.2 per match). The pattern: Betis create chances at home and concede; Levante concede heavily away but also score in sustained spells. This combination screams over 2.5 goals.

The only H2H in the last 12 months was a 2-2 draw in September 2025 at Levante. Betis had 2.12 xG to Levante's 0.73, dominated possession (67%), and had 9 shots on target to 2. But Levante scored twice from 0.73 xG, showing they can punish Betis. Corners were 12-4 to Betis, total 16. That match had an early red card? No, no red. Both teams scored, and the game was open despite Betis' control. This suggests that even away, Betis create plenty but concede. With Betis' defensive absences, a repeat of goals is likely.

First half patterns: Betis home average 1.91 total goals in 1H with 1H xG 1.65. They often start fast. Levante away average only 1.11 total 1H goals with 0.40 xG for. So Betis likely to score first. Corners: Betis home avg 4.22 in 1H, 8.20 full match. Levante away avg 3.89 in 1H, 12.55 full match (small sample). Total corners likely high but Betis' home avg is only 8.1 per match, so under 9.5 corners is more probable. Cards: Betis home avg 5.0 yellows, Levante away avg 3.4, over 3.5 should land. Fouls are similar.

The odds have moved significantly. Over 2.5 goals shortened from 2.50 to 1.73, implying strong market support. BTTS Yes shortened? Actually drifted slightly from 1.44 to 1.53, so market more cautious on both scoring? But fair probabilities: margin-removed home win 41.4%, draw 29.8%, away 28.9%. My estimate: home win 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. Over 2.5 my probability 65%, fair odds 1.54, current 1.73 is value (+0.19 EV). BTTS Yes my probability 60%, fair odds 1.67, current 1.53 is negative EV? Actually 1/1.67=0.599, 1.53 gives EV = 0.6*1.53 -1 = -0.082. So BTTS No at 2.38 might have value (my prob 40%, fair 2.50, 2.38 slight negative? Actually 0.4*2.38-1=-0.048). But I think BTTS yes is likely. Let's recalc: Betis scored in 14/15 home, Levante scored in 9/15 away, but both scoring in same match? Betis home BTTS 10/15 (67%), Levante away BTTS 7/15 (47%). Combined probability around 55-60%. So BTTS might be slightly overbet. Over 2.5 looks better. Corners under 9.5 at 1.80 is value given Betis home avg 8.1 and only 2/9 over 9.5. Probability maybe 65%, fair 1.54, so value. Cards over 3.5 at 1.73, probability maybe 70%, fair 1.43, so value.