Saint-Étienne vs Rodez AF - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are in Ligue 2 and the season is nearing its end in mid-May. Saint-Étienne are pushing for promotion or play-off spots, while Rodez are likely safe from relegation but could still be fighting for a top-half finish. The home side have a strong recent record at Stade Geoffroy Guichard, winning 4-0 against Rodez earlier this season. Saint-Étienne need points to secure a better position, so motivation is high. Rodez, on the other hand, may be slightly less motivated after a mid-table finish, but they will want to finish the season strongly. The H2H shows both teams have been able to score, and with both full squads available, expect an open game.

Saint-Étienne have been in decent form lately: WWDWD in their last five overall, but they lost 2-1 to Rodez away in early May. At home, they have three straight wins, including a 4-0 thrashing of Rodez and a 4-0 win over Annecy. However, their home marker match against Toulouse ended 2-3, showing defensive vulnerabilities. Rodez AF are on a good run: WDDWW in their last five, with their only away loss in that stretch being to Saint-Étienne. They beat Red Star FC 3-2 away despite being reduced to 10 men late on. Rodez have scored in four straight games, but have also conceded in every away match. Both teams have leaky defenses, which should lead to goals.

Both teams have full squads available with no injuries or suspensions. Saint-Étienne have 22 key players and 16 rotation players all available. Rodez have 26 key players and 23 rotation players fit. This means both coaches can field their strongest XIs. Saint-Étienne rely on their possession-based style, while Rodez will sit deep and counter. With no absences, tactical plans won't be disrupted.

Saint-Étienne are a possession-dominant side (65.7% possession in markers) who create chances through corners and set pieces. They average 4 big chances per home match. Rodez are a low-block team with only 34.4% possession away, but they are also corner-heavy. The clash of styles suggests Saint-Étienne will have the ball, but Rodez will be dangerous on the break. In the H2H, Saint-Étienne had 62.7% possession and 5.66 total big chances per match. This tactical battle often produces goals: in their two meetings, both had over 2.5 goals. Saint-Étienne's high xG against (3.21 at home) indicates they are vulnerable, while Rodez's low xG for away (no data) but actual goals scored suggest they are clinical. Expect end-to-end action with set pieces playing a key role.

Home markers for Saint-Étienne (2 matches): vs Rodez they won 4-0 with 5 big chances, 18 shots, 5 corners. vs Toulouse they lost 2-3 with xG 1.33-3.21, 2 big chances for but 6 against. These show Saint-Étienne can score but also concede heavily. Away markers for Rodez (3 matches, relaxed filter): vs Red Star FC (3-2 win, 1 big chance, 3 corners), vs Red Star FC (1-1 draw, 1 big chance, 2 corners), vs Saint-Étienne (0-4 loss, 0 big chances, 5 corners). Rodez struggle to create away (0.78 big chances per match) but are efficient on counter-attacks. The pattern: Saint-Étienne dominate possession and create chances, but their defense is exposed. Rodez can score against any defense, as seen in their recent win over Red Star. When these teams met, games were open: 4-0 and 2-1, both with over 2.5 goals and plenty of corners. The tactical pattern is that Saint-Étienne's high press and Rodez's counter-attacking style leads to transitions and goals.

Only 2 H2H matches in the last 12 months. On 2025-08-16, Saint-Étienne won 4-0 at home with xG 1.33-3.21 (no, data from match shows BC 5-0, shots 18-5). Saint-Étienne dominated possession 70-30. On 2026-05-02, Rodez won 2-1 away (actually home for Rodez) with BC 5-1 for Rodez, shots 10-17, possession 59-41. Both matches had over 2.5 goals. The home side won each time, but both teams scored in the most recent meeting. The pattern is that the home team tends to dominate, but both sides are capable of scoring. Saint-Étienne's 4-0 win shows their potential, while Rodez's 2-1 win shows they can upset.

Small markets: Saint-Étienne home markers average total corners 11.00, Rodez away average 6.78, H2H average 9.33. Over 10.5 corners at 1.91 is borderline but not strong value. Yellow cards: total average 4.33 home, 4.66 away, H2H 4.00. Referee not assigned, but league average is 3.8. Cards might be higher due to defensive fouls. First half: Saint-Étienne home 1H goals average 3.00, corners 5.00, Rodez away 1H goals 1.34, corners 2.88. H2H 1H goals 1.33. So first half is likely active. Shots on target: home 10.00, away 7.88, H2H 9.00. Big chances: home 6.00, away 2.22, H2H 5.66. Goal kicks and free kicks are balanced. The data supports a high-event match.

Bookmaker odds imply Saint-Étienne win probability 53.7% (fair odds 1.86) after margin removal, but actual odds 1.67 suggest slight value on the favorite? However, community votes 70% win, so market may be overestimating. Draw at 24.9% (fair 4.01), Away win 21.4% (fair 4.68). Odds movements: Over 2.5 shortened 8% to 1.57, BTTS Yes shortened 8% to 1.53, Over 3.5 shortened 14% to 2.25. This indicates smart money on goals. Under 2.5 drifted to 2.35. The market expects goals. My estimate: Over 2.5 probability 70% (fair odds 1.43), so value at 1.57? Actually 1.57 is slightly low but still positive EV? EV = 0.7*1.57 -1 = 0.099, so yes positive EV. BTTS Yes: my estimate 70% (fair 1.43), actual 1.53 gives EV 0.071. Over 3.5: my estimate 50% (fair 2.00), actual 2.25 gives EV 0.125. So there is value in overs.