Torino vs Juventus - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is the final matchday of Serie A, and while the league positions are largely settled, the Derby della Mole carries its own weight. Torino sit 12th with 44 points, nothing to play for but pride and local bragging rights. Juventus are 6th with 68 points, already assured of European football but unable to reach the Champions League spots. The 24-point gap reflects the gulf in class, but derbies are different. Torino will be desperate to spoil their rivals' end to the season, especially after a disappointing campaign. Juventus, however, have less at stake and may lack the same intensity. Yet, Spalletti's side will aim to finish strong and maintain momentum. The key tension: Torino's pride vs Juventus's professionalism. With both teams not in a must-win situation, the match could be tight and cautious.

Torino come into this on a mixed run: overall LWLWW in last five, but at home they've been solid, winning four of their last five at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, including impressive wins over Parma (4-1) and Lazio (2-0). Their home markers show an average xG of 1.62 for and 1.41 against, with actual goals averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. However, the xG divergence at home is minimal (+0.11), indicating performances are sustainable. Juventus, meanwhile, have been inconsistent away but defensively resilient. Their away markers show an average xG of 2.10 for and 0.90 against, but they've scored only 1.43 goals per match, underperforming their xG by -0.63 overall. This underperformance suggests regression could be due. Notably, Juventus have kept four consecutive away clean sheets, a formidable streak. Their recent away form includes wins at Lecce, Udinese, and Atalanta, with draws at AC Milan and Roma. The clean sheet streak is a major factor.

Torino are ravaged by injuries, with five key players unavailable: midfielders Emirhan İlkhan, Samuele Ricci, and Tino Anjorin, defender Guillermo Maripán, and forward Zakaria Aboukhlal. That's the spine of the team. Their starting XI features a makeshift defense with Coco, Ismajli, and Ebosse, while midfield relies on Prati and Gineitis. The attack relies on Simeone and Zapata, but without creative support. Juventus also have absences: key defender Bremer is doubtful, forward Kenan Yıldız is out, and others like Milik and Zhegrova are out or doubtful. Still, their squad depth is superior. The absence of Maripán and Ricci for Torino is critical—they lose defensive organization and midfield control. This tilt favors Juventus, but their own missing pieces may blunt their attack slightly.

Both teams are classified as defensive and corner-heavy, but this matchup is a tactical battle. Torino at home average 48.5% possession, while Juventus away average 53.3%. Expect Juventus to dominate the ball, with Torino looking to counter and use set pieces. Torino's home markers show they concede 5.9 corners per match, while Juventus away only earn 3.75. This suggests Torino will likely win the corner count, but total corners may be moderate. Defensively, both teams are solid: Torino concede 1.41 xG at home, Juventus concede just 0.90 away. With Torino's weakened defense and Juventus's attacking potential, the clash favors Juventus controlling the game but struggles to break down a compact opponent. The derby atmosphere may lead to caution, with both teams wary of losing.

Torino's home markers show a mixed bag. Against Sassuolo (2-1 win), they had 2.82 xG and 6 big chances, but conceded 2.10 xG. Against Parma (4-1 win), they dominated with 2.20 xG and 15 shots, but the scoreline flattered them a bit. Against Lazio (2-0 win), they were out-xG'd 0.71-1.05 and relied on efficiency. Against Bologna (1-2 loss), they created just 0.42 xG and lost deservedly. Against Udinese (1-2 loss), they had 1.09 xG but conceded 2.15. The pattern: Torino can be beaten by quality opposition, but at home they often find a way to score. Their average total xG is 3.03, and actual goals averaged 3.2. Juventus's away markers: At Atalanta (1-0 win), they were outshot but clinical. At Udinese (1-0 win), they dominated xG 3.34-0.68. At Parma (4-1 win), they were ruthless. After a 0-0 at Monaco (low xG), they beat Sassuolo 3-0 with 2.57 xG. At Bologna (1-0 win), they controlled. The pattern: Juventus away are very efficient, creating high xG but underperforming slightly. They tend to keep clean sheets against weaker teams. The tactical pattern from markers: When Juventus face a mid-block, they create chances but sometimes struggle to convert. Torino's markers show they can be exposed by stronger sides but often score at home. Overlap: Total goals in these markers average 2.5-3.0, but with Juventus's clean sheet streak, Under 2.5 looks plausible.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: a 0-0 draw in November 2025 at Juventus's stadium. Torino had just 0.54 xG to Juve's 1.21, with 28% possession and 3 shots on target. Juventus dominated but couldn't finish. That match shows the derby can be tight and defensive. Both coaches remain the same, so tactical continuity. The xG suggests Juve should have won, but the 0-0 highlights the difficulty of breaking down a resolute defense. With Torino at home this time, they may be even more stubborn. The H2H sample is small but supports a low-scoring affair.

Small markets: Torino's marker averages: corners 10.2, yellow cards 4.6, shots on target 9.0. Juventus's away markers: corners 9.05, yellow cards 4.0, shots on target 8.0. Total match averages: corners ~9.6, cards ~4.3. First-half stats: Torino home 1H goals avg 0.71 (0.43 for, 0.28 against), corners 5.2, cards 0.77. Juventus away 1H goals avg 1.47 (0.80 for, 0.67 against), corners 4.38, cards 1.10. The 1H goals total is slightly above 1, but with underperformance, could be low. Goal kicks and fouls are consistent. With both teams' defensive tendencies, small markets like Under 9.5 corners and Over 3.5 cards have merit.

Bookmaker fair probabilities (margin-removed): Home Win 13.4%, Draw 21.7%, Away Win 64.9%. Winner Away at 1.45 reflects heavy favoritism, but odds have drifted from 1.38 to 1.45, suggesting some doubt. Torino win has shortened from 8.00 to 7.00. For goals, Over 2.5 is 1.73, Under 2.5 is 2.10. The Under has drifted from 1.73 to 2.10, indicating sharp money on Over. However, with Juventus's clean sheet streak and Torino's missing key players, Under 2.5 at 2.10 offers value. My estimate: 55% probability for Under 2.5, fair odds 1.82, book 2.10, EV +15.5%. Cards Over 3.5 at 1.91 has also drifted from 1.61, likely due to market overreaction. Referee Zufferli averages 4.0 yellows per match, above league average (3.7). Torino home cards avg 4.6, Juventus away 4.0. Over 3.5 at 1.91 gives EV of +14.6%.