1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen - AI Prediction & Analysis

Leverkusen are firmly in the European race, sitting 6th with 52 points and just 4 points off the top 4. Every point is crucial now, especially with tough fixtures against Leipzig and Stuttgart coming up. They cannot afford to drop points against a mid-table side. Köln, meanwhile, are comfortable in 12th place but still need results to avoid any late relegation scare – they're only 7 points above the playoff spot. Their upcoming schedule is easier, but home games are where they pick up most points. The motivation edge clearly goes to Leverkusen, who have more to play for and are the stronger side. However, Köln will be up for it in front of their own fans, and with nothing to lose, they can play freely. The tension here is between Leverkusen's necessity to win and Köln's desire to spoil the party.

Köln's recent form is a mixed bag. They beat Bremen 3-1 but that was against 10 men from the 24th minute, and the xG of 3.47 is inflated by a red card. The 3-3 draw with Gladbach saw 9 yellow cards for Köln and a red for the opponent – pure chaos. At home, they've scored in 8 of their last 9 but also conceded regularly – only 1 clean sheet in 15 home games. Leverkusen are coming off a shock 1-2 home loss to Augsburg despite a 3.36 xG – they underperformed massively. Away from home, they've been solid: won at Dortmund (1-0, xG 1.26-0.60), drew at Heidenheim (3-3 in a crazy game), and lost at Union Berlin (0-1) despite dominating possession. Their away xG is 1.43 per game – decent but not elite. The xG divergence overall is small (-0.21), meaning results are fair. Key issue: Leverkusen create chances but sometimes fail to convert, while Köln are generous at the back.

Köln are without key forwards Ragnar Ache and Tim Lemperle – both injured. That's a huge blow for their attack. Said El Mala and Marius Bulter will lead the line, but they lack the same threat. Also missing are several rotation players, but the core midfield and defence are intact. Leverkusen have their own defensive issues: Jarell Quansah is doubtful, Lucas Vazquez and Martin Terrier are out. That weakens their backline, especially with Quansah's pace missing. Patrik Schick starts up front, and with Maza and Poku providing creativity, they still have plenty of firepower. The absence of key defenders could make them vulnerable to Köln's set-piece threat – Köln are corner-heavy and score from dead balls. Both teams are weakened in key areas, which tilts the game towards goals.

This is a classic possession vs counter-attack clash. Leverkusen average 63% possession away from home, while Köln average 47% at home. But both are described as 'defensive, corner-heavy' – meaning they defend deep but win lots of corners. That's a paradox: Leverkusen with high possession still generate corners (4.43 away), while Köln from lower possession also get corners (5.00 home). This suggests the game will see plenty of set pieces. Köln are also card-heavy (2.00 yellows at home, opponents 3.33), so expect fouls and cards. Leverkusen's style is to dominate the ball and create through possession, but Köln will sit deep and look to counter via long balls and set plays. The match type is tactical battle – both prioritize defensive organization, but the numbers show this often leads to goals via dead balls or transitions. With both missing key attackers/defenders, the clean sheet is unlikely.

HOME markers for Köln (3 matches): against Hoffenheim (2-2, xG 1.09-1.70, corners 3-10), Mainz (2-1, xG 2.08-1.52, corners 9-5), Frankfurt (3-4, xG 1.22-1.81, corners 3-3). The common thread: high total xG (3.11 avg), lots of corners (11.78 avg), and both teams scoring in all three. Köln are leaky at the back but also create chances – they never kept a clean sheet. The matches were chaotic, with red cards and high cards in some. Pattern: Köln home games against similar opposition are open, with goals at both ends and corner counts well above average. AWAY markers for Leverkusen (5 matches): at Heidenheim (3-3, xG 1.74-1.62, corners 5-2), Hamburg (1-0, xG 1.89-1.27, corners 7-2), Union Berlin (0-1, xG 0.94-0.55, corners 5-4), Gladbach (1-1, xG 0.79-0.71, corners 2-2), Wolfsburg (3-1, xG 1.10-2.13, corners 1-9). Leverkusen dominate possession but don't always dominate xG. They win away games in different ways: sometimes high-scoring, sometimes tight. What stands out is that they concede chances – opponents averaged 1.24 xG per game. Total corners are moderate (7.76 avg) but with high variance. Pattern: Leverkusen away games are not consistently high-scoring, but when they face weaker opposition that defends deep, they tend to control the game and create enough chances. The sample is small but suggests moderate goal totals. Overlap: Both teams' markers point to goals being likely. Köln home games average 3.11 xG total, Leverkusen away 2.61. Combined, that's high for a Bundesliga game. Corners also look good: Köln home average 11.78, Leverkusen away 7.76 – the sum is comfortably over 9.5. Cards are also elevated: both above 5.0 total yellows per game. The overlap strongly supports markets on Over 2.5 goals, Over 9.5 corners, and Over 4.5 cards.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: December 2025 at Leverkusen, where Leverkusen won 2-0. The xG was 2.07-0.20 in their favour – a complete domination. Leverkusen had 61% possession, 17 shots to 5, and 5 big chances to 1. Corners were 8-3. That match shows the gulf in quality, but it was at Leverkusen. At home, Köln are a different beast. The sample is tiny, so not too much weight. Both coaches are the same, but squads have changed slightly – 4 changes for Köln, 5 for Leverkusen. The H2H slightly favours Leverkusen but doesn't override the strong marker data.

Small markets analysis: xG totals are high for both teams' markers (Köln home 3.11 total, Leverkusen away 2.61). Corners: Köln home corners total 11.78, Leverkusen away 7.76 – the combined average of 9.77 is just above the line of 9.5. Yellow cards: Köln home total 5.33, Leverkusen away 5.24 – both above the league average of 3.8. Fouls: Köln home total 15.78, Leverkusen away 21.43 – lots of fouls from both, especially Leverkusen away. First half patterns: Köln home 1H xG total 1.28, Leverkusen away 1H xG total 1.03 – not huge. But 1H goals: Köln home 1.89 total, Leverkusen away 1.89 total. That's interesting – both have high first-half goal totals in their markers. 1H corners: Köln home 6.22, Leverkusen away 2.97 – big difference. So if betting first half, corners might be a play for Köln. Overall, the stats support high cards, moderate-to-high corners, and goals.

Bookmakers have Leverkusen as clear favourites at 1.85 to win, with Köln at 3.80. The margin-removed probabilities: Leverkusen 51.3%, draw 23.7%, Köln 25.0%. I estimate Leverkusen win probability at 55-60%, which makes 1.85 slight value – but not huge. BTTS Yes is 1.53, which is low. My estimate: given markers and streaks, BTTS Yes probability is around 70%, so fair odds would be 1.43 – the 1.53 is slightly overpriced? Actually 1/1.53 = 65.4% implied – my 70% means value on Yes. Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 implies 65.4% – my estimate is >70% based on markers, so value. Under 2.5 at 2.50 implies 40% – I'd put it at 30%, so no value. Cards Over 3.5 at 1.61 implies 62.1% – markers suggest higher (avg 5.33 and 5.24 total yellows = around 80% chance of over 3.5? Actually 5.24 average, so Over 3.5 almost certain – but sample small. I estimate 75%+ so value. Corners Over 9.5 at 1.73 implies 57.8% – markers average 9.77 total, so roughly 50/50? Actually if average is 9.77, probability of over 9.5 is around 55%? Slight value. Overall, several markets show value.