Almere City FC vs FC Den Bosch - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are in the middle of the table with little to play for in terms of relegation or European places, but local pride and a desire to finish the season on a high keep motivation moderate. Almere City are unbeaten in their last two home games (though only one counts here) and will want to improve on a poor home record. Den Bosch, meanwhile, have a strong away scoring streak and will back themselves to get on the scoresheet again. The fact that both sides have full squads and no rotation concerns means we can expect full-strength lineups. Motivation is balanced, but the attacking intent evident in recent meetings tips the scale towards an open game.

Almere City's recent form shows a team that creates plenty but struggles to convert: they average 1.41 xG per match but only 0.75 goals, an underperformance of -0.66. At home, the gap is even wider (2.01 xG vs 0.67 goals). This screams regression – Almere are due to score more. In their last two matches against Den Bosch, they scored 1 and 3 goals, so the trend is upward. FC Den Bosch are more clinical: they average 1.78 xG and score 1.25 goals per match, slightly underperforming. Away from home, they have scored in 4 of their last 4. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently: 6 of Almere's last 10 and 4 of Den Bosch's last 8 have gone Over 2.5. The numbers point to goals.

Both teams have full squads available with no key absences or rotation risks. Almere's coach Jeroen Rijsdijk and Den Bosch's Ulrich Landvreugd have continuity, as they were in charge for the recent H2H meetings. This means the tactical patterns from those games are highly relevant. The absence of any injury concerns suggests both teams will field their strongest XIs, increasing the likelihood of a competitive, open match.

Both teams are labelled defensive and corner-heavy, but the data tells a different story. Almere average 55% possession at home and create plenty of chances (4.33 big chances per match). Den Bosch away are more counter-attacking (41% possession) but still generate 1.67 big chances. The clash of a possession-based side against a team happy to sit back often leads to a high number of shots and chances. Moreover, both teams are corner-heavy – Almere average 6.56 corners at home, Den Bosch 3.00 away – so set-pieces are a genuine threat. The H2H meetings have seen 8.56 big chances per game, underlining the attacking nature of this fixture.

Marker matches with relaxed filters – small sample but consistent patterns. **Almere City (home markers):** 4 matches: vs Den Bosch (1-2, xG 3.72-1.78, BC 6-1), vs Den Bosch (1-1, no xG), vs Fortuna Sittard (1-1, xG 0.89-0.88, BC 3-1), vs Sparta Rotterdam (0-3, xG 1.43-1.81, BC 3-1). The average xG total is 3.76, corners 9.12, big chances 5.33. Despite the defensive label, Almere concede goals – 2.0 per game in these matches. The 0-3 loss to Sparta was an anomaly; in the other three they scored at least once. **FC Den Bosch (away markers):** 4 matches: vs Almere (2-1, xG 1.78-3.72, BC 1-6), vs Almere (1-1), vs Telstar (1-2, BC 3-2), vs Cambuur (1-1, BC 1-4). Away average xG total 5.50, corners 12.00, big chances 5.89. Den Bosch are outshot but create chances on the counter. They scored in 3 of 4 away markers (the exception being the draw at Cambuur where they still had 1 goal). **Tactical pattern:** Both teams struggle to keep clean sheets. Almere's xG against at home is 1.49, Den Bosch's xG against away is 3.72 – that's a massive number. The H2H data (see below) reinforces that this matchup consistently produces goals. The pattern is clear: back both teams to score.

Three meetings in 2025-26: Almere won 3-2 away (29 Apr), Den Bosch won 2-1 away (6 Apr, but technically home for Almere), and Den Bosch won 5-2 at home (21 Nov). - 29 Apr: Almere won 3-2, BC 7-4, shots 27-15, SoT 11-5, corners 8-3. A goal-fest with both teams scoring. - 6 Apr: Den Bosch won 2-1, xG 3.72-1.78, BC 6-1, corners 8-1. Almere dominated xG but lost – typical underperformance. - 21 Nov: Den Bosch won 5-2, xG 1.26-3.62, BC 3-3, corners 3-4. Den Bosch scored 5 from an xG of 3.62 – slight overperformance. All three matches had BTTS and Over 2.5. Average total goals: 4.33. Average corners: 9.45. The pattern is unmistakable: goals at both ends.

Small markets data from markers: - Corners: home avg 9.12, away avg 12.00. H2H avg 9.45. Market line likely 9.5 or 10.5 – value on Over. - Yellow cards: marker totals 2.22 (home) and 4.33 (away). Referee Nagtegaal averages 2.80 per match, well below league average (3.3). In the only match with these teams, there were 2 yellows. Under cards likely. - 1H Goals: home avg 0.83, away avg 1.05. H2H 1H avg 1.66 – suggests first-half goals common. - Big chances combine for 5.33 (home) and 5.89 (away) – high likelihood of multiple chances. - NPxG: both teams have no penalty inflation, so xG is reliable.

Bookmakers have reacted sharply to the data: Over 2.5 shortened from 3.10 to 1.36, Under drifted from 1.36 to 3.10. This is a massive shift, reflecting the high goal expectancy. BTTS Yes is at 1.36, No at 3.00. Home win is 1.68. Margin-removed probabilities: Home 53.5%, Draw 22.5%, Away 24%. My estimated probability for Over 2.5 is 75% (fair odds 1.33), so the current 1.36 is slightly above fair – minimal value. BTTS Yes has an 82% probability (fair odds 1.22), so 1.36 offers value. Home win seems overpriced relative to the matchups – Den Bosch have won 2 of 3 H2H. I'd avoid the result market. Value lies in BTTS Yes and possibly Over 2.5 but with lower edge.