Arsenal vs Fulham - AI Prediction & Analysis

Arsenal are flying high at the top of the table, 25 points clear of their opponents, but their focus is split with a Champions League semi-final second leg against Atlético Madrid just three days away. Mikel Arteta is expected to rotate key players like Odegaard and Havertz, who are already doubtful or injured. Fulham sit comfortably in 10th, with nothing to play for but pride and a potential upset. They have no European distractions and will be fully focused on this match. The motivational edge clearly favors Fulham, as Arsenal may subconsciously take their foot off the gas with one eye on the midweek clash. Fulham's away form has been poor, but they have shown they can compete against top sides, pushing Liverpool and Manchester City close before losing. This could be a classic 'trap game' for the title favorites.

Arsenal's recent form has been patchy. They've won only four of their last seven home games, including a shock 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth and a 0-2 loss to Manchester City. Their xG numbers tell a story of underperformance: they average 1.47 xG per game overall but have scored just 1.0 goals per match, a -0.47 regression risk. At home, the divergence is smaller (-0.09), but they still drew blanks against Sporting and only scored once against Newcastle. Fulham, meanwhile, have lost three of their last four away games, failing to score in two of them. They too are underperforming on xG: 1.55 overall but only 1.0 goals per game, suggesting they are due for a positive regression. However, their away scoring record is dismal—just 9 goals in 17 away matches, with three consecutive blanks on the road. Both teams are creating chances but not converting, setting up a low-scoring affair.

Arsenal are without several key creators. Martin Odegaard is a major doubt with injury, and Kai Havertz is definitely out. Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu are also missing. These absences rob Arsenal of their main playmaker and a key midfield presence. Without Odegaard, Arsenal's attacking fluidity often drops. Fulham also have significant absences: right-back Kenny Tete and midfielder Kevin are key losses, while Alex Iwobi is doubtful. Their midfield and right flank are weakened. Both sides are depleted in creative areas, which should further limit goal-scoring opportunities.

Both teams favour a defensive, corner-heavy style. Arsenal average 50.6% possession at home, while Fulham average 48.4% away. Neither side dominates possession consistently, but both rely on set pieces and counter-attacks. In marker matches, Arsenal averaged 13.6 total corners per home game, while Fulham averaged 11.6 away. This suggests a high corner count is likely. However, in terms of goals, both teams' defensive tendencies suggest a cautious approach. Arsenal's home games have seen an average total xG of 3.02, but actual goals have been lower. Fulham's away markers saw an average total xG of 3.05, but they conceded 2 or 3 goals in each. The clash of styles points to a grind, with moments of danger from set pieces rather than open play.

Arsenal's four home markers paint a schizophrenic picture. Against Bournemouth (1-2 L), they dominated xG 2.41-1.20 and created 4 big chances but lost, conceding 2 goals from 3 shots on target. Against Leverkusen (2-0 W), they were clinical with 1.70-0.52 xG and 12 shots on target. Against Everton (2-0 W), they racked up 2.70 xG but only scored twice from 7 shots. And against Chelsea (2-1 W with a red card), they managed just 1.09 xG but won thanks to penalties. The pattern: Arsenal generate high xG but have been wasteful and often rely on set pieces or individual brilliance. Their big chances per game are moderate (2.39), but actual goals have been volatile. Fulham's away markers were all losses but with xG close to their opponents. At Liverpool (0-2 L), they had 1.09-1.81 xG and created 2 big chances. At Manchester City (0-3 L), they had 1.42-1.37 xG and 1 big chance. At Manchester United (2-3 L), they had 1.94-1.79 xG and 2 big chances, scoring twice. The pattern: Fulham create chances away from home but are let down by poor finishing and defensive lapses. They consistently concede 2-3 goals against top sides. However, Arsenal's defense is more organized than Liverpool or Man City's, and Fulham's away scoring has been poorer than expected. The overlap: both teams have xG underperformance, but Fulham's away struggles and Arsenal's defensive solidity (7 clean sheets in 17 home games) suggest a low-scoring game.

Only one head-to-head meeting is available from the last 12 months: Arsenal won 1-0 away at Fulham in October 2025. The xG was heavily in Arsenal's favor (1.87-0.44), with Arsenal dominating corners (10-6) and shots (16-9). Fulham failed to register a single shot on target despite having 9 shots. That match illustrates Arsenal's ability to control the game without conceding chances. However, it was at Fulham's home, and Arsenal had a full-strength squad. With key absences now, replicating that dominance may be harder.

First-half patterns: Arsenal average 0.78 1H goals at home, while Fulham average 0.00 1H goals away. This suggests Arsenal may score early, but Fulham rarely score in the first half on the road. 1H corners: Arsenal average 4.56 home, Fulham 1.44 away. Corner dominance for Arsenal early on is likely. Cards: Referee Jarred Gillett averages 4.05 yellows per match, slightly above the league average of 4.00. Arsenal home markers averaged 3.45 total yellows, while Fulham away markers averaged 3.67. The combined average is around 3.5, just under the 3.5 line. However, this is a top-table clash with potential for frustration, so over 3.5 cards at 2.00 offers value.

The market is pricing Arsenal as heavy favorites at 1.45 (implied 69%), with a draw at 4.50 and Fulham at 6.50. Margin-removed probabilities give Arsenal 64.7%, draw 20.9%, Fulham 14.4%. My estimation: Arsenal win is likely but not a sure thing given rotation and Fulham's motivation. I'd put Arsenal win at 60%, draw at 25%, Fulham win at 15%. So no clear value on the 1X2. For goals, Over 2.5 is at 1.80 (implied 56%), Under 2.5 at 2.00 (50%). Given the defensive styles, key absences, and poor away scoring, Under 2.5 seems more probable. I estimate Under 2.5 at 55% (fair odds 1.82), so 2.00 offers value (EV +10%). BTTS No is at 1.80 (implied 56%). With Fulham's away scoring struggles and Arsenal's home clean sheets, I estimate BTTS No at 60% (fair odds 1.67), so 1.80 is value (EV +8%). Corners Over 10.5 at 2.10 (implied 48%) vs historical averages of 12-13 total corners in both teams' markers. I estimate Over 10.5 corners at 58% (fair odds 1.72), making 2.10 strong value.