Auxerre vs Angers - AI Prediction & Analysis

Auxerre are 16th with 25 points, just two points above the relegation playoff spot. Every point is gold for them. Angers sit 13th with 34 points, not safe yet but with a comfortable cushion. The visitors have a lighter schedule ahead, but they are still looking to avoid a late-season slide. Auxerre's home crowd will demand intensity, but both teams are in poor form – Auxerre have 1 win in 7, Angers 1 win in 7. The pressure is on the home side to attack, but their style is defensive. Angers will be content with a point and will sit deep. This is a classic relegation six-pointer where fear dominates, leading to a tight, tense affair.

Auxerre's recent run is awful: 1 win, 4 draws, 2 losses in the last 7. The underlying numbers are even worse – they are overperforming xG overall (1.3 goals from 0.93 xG), but at home they are underperforming (1 goal from 1.29 xG). Recent home matches: 0-0 vs Nantes (0.66 xG for, 1.44 against), 0-0 vs Paris FC (0.94-0.77), and a fluky 3-0 vs Brest (with an early red card for Brest). Auxerre are not creating enough, and their defence is leaky despite the clean sheets. Angers are in a freefall: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses. Their away form is brutal – 1 win in 5, and that win was a 1-0 at Nantes where they had 0.70 xG. They got hammered 5-1 at Lens (3.39 xG against). Underperforming xG overall (-0.38), but away from home their numbers are fair. The team lacks attacking threat, scoring only 0.4 goals per game overall.

Auxerre are without key goalkeeper Donovan Léon and key defender Fredrik Oppegård – both doubtful, but missing would be a huge blow. Also out: defenders N'gatta, Agouzoul, and midfielder Coulibaly. That's 3 key defensive pieces missing. Their backline will be patchy, which could lead to mistakes. Angers are missing key defenders Carlens Arcus, Cedric Hountondji, and Marius Louer, plus midfielder Zinedine Ferhat. That's four key players out. Both teams will field weakened defenses, but since both are defensive-minded, the absences might actually increase the chance of a goal – but historically, defensive teams with injuries still tend to grind out low-scoring draws.

Both teams are low-block, defensive outfits. Auxerre average 49% possession, Angers 46.3%. This is a tactical battle of two teams who are comfortable without the ball. The match type is 'tactical battle' – expect few shots, few big chances, and a focus on set pieces. Corner totals could be low because both sides sit deep. The only path to goals is set pieces or individual errors. With many defenders missing on both sides, there could be a higher chance of defensive errors, but the overwhelming trend is for under 2.5 goals.

Home markers for Auxerre: 3 matches. vs Nantes: 0-0, xG 0.66-1.44, 2 big chances each, 3 corners for Auxerre. A defensive stalemate. vs Paris FC: 0-0, xG 0.94-0.77, 2 big chances for Auxerre, 7 corners. Again no goals. vs Metz: 3-1, but Metz had a red card early (min 6), Auxerre had 4 big chances, 1 penalty. Without the red, this would have been a different game. The pattern is clear: Auxerre struggle to score against defensive sides, and only the blowout vs Metz (with an extra man) produced goals. Away markers for Angers: 4 matches. vs Nantes: 1-0 win, xG 0.70-0.84, low scoring. vs Paris FC: 0-0, xG 0.64-0.80, even. vs Le Havre: 1-2 loss, xG 0.55-1.02, only 2 goals. vs Nice: 1-0 win, but Nice had a red card at min 53. So 3 of 4 away markers had under 2.5 goals. The tactical pattern overlaps: both teams participating in low-scoring matches, especially when the opponent also sits back. This screams under 2.5.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: on 2025-11-09, Angers beat Auxerre 2-0 at home. xG was 0.70-0.66, fairly even but Angers converted their chances. Corners were 3-3, fouls 14-19. That match also had under 2.5 goals (actually exactly 2). Continuity: both coaches are the same, but both teams have significant squad changes (6 players each). The H2H sample is tiny, but it reinforces the low-scoring narrative.

From markers: Home team corners avg 7.67 total, but variance high due to one match with 12. Under 9.5 corners seems value at 1.80. Cards: Auxerre home markers avg 4.11 yellows, Angers away avg 2.00. League average is 3.9. Over 3.5 cards at 1.83 is a close call but given the match importance, I lean over. 1H draws: both teams rarely score in first half in these matches. Auxerre home 1H goals avg 2.00 but that's skewed by the Metz match with a red. Angers away 1H goals avg 0.08. 1H Draw at 2.10 looks solid. Individual totals: Both teams under 0.5 goals in 1H could be worth a look.

Fair probabilities from bookmaker margin: Home 57%, Draw 25.7%, Away 17.3%. Odds range: Home 1.67, Draw 3.70, Away 5.50. The market is pricing Auxerre as strong favourites, but their recent form and injuries suggest less confidence. My estimation: Home win 45%, Draw 35%, Away 20%. That gives no value on Home (EV -0.25). Under 2.5 goals at 1.67: my estimate 75% -> fair odds 1.33, EV = 0.75*1.67 - 1 = 0.253, clear value. BTTS No at 1.70: my estimate 75% (since markers show 71.4% BTTS No) -> EV = 0.75*1.70 - 1 = 0.275, also value. The odds movements support the under: Under 1.5 goals drifted to 3.20 (from 2.75), indicating expectation of goals. But the early money has come for Under 2.5? Actually Over 3.5 shortened, so some money on goals, but I think the under is still the right side.