Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg - AI Prediction & Analysis

Leverkusen are 5th with 52 points, 19 clear of Augsburg in 10th. With 9 games left, they're pushing for Champions League spots — every point is crucial. Augsburg are mid-table at 33 points, safe from relegation but out of European contention, so motivation dips. The key tension: Leverkusen have a DFB Pokal semi-final vs Bayern in 4.2 days, so rotation risk is MEDIUM. They might rest key players like Schick or Palacios. Augsburg have no rotation risk, but their season is effectively over. Leverkusen need this more, but squad management could blunt their edge. Augsburg won't roll over, but they lack the same urgency. Back Leverkusen to prioritize this league game over the cup, given their European ambitions.

Leverkusen's form is solid but not spectacular. Last 7 overall: W-D-D-D-W-D-W. At home, they smashed Wolfsburg 6-3 with 4.52 xG — a shooting clinic. But they also drew 1-1 with Bayern despite 3.23 xG, underperforming their chances. xG divergence is fair at -0.04, so they're scoring what they create. Augsburg are in a rough patch: last 7 overall D-D-L-L-L-W-W. Away, it's worse — they're underperforming xG by -0.64, with avg xG 1.54 but only 0.9 goals scored. They lost 2-0 to Dortmund but had 2.58 xG, showing they create but can't finish. This screams regression risk: Augsburg are due goals, but their defense is leaky, conceding 1.88 xG away on average. Leverkusen's home strength meets Augsburg's away struggles.

Leverkusen miss two key forwards: Amine Adli and Martin Terrier are out. That hurts their attacking depth, but Patrik Schick starts — he's clinical, with 4 big chances per home game on average. The midfield is intact with Palacios and García, so creativity remains. Augsburg are hit harder in defense: Chrislain Matsima and Fredrik Jensen are missing, weakening their backline. They'll start Schlotterbeck and Gouweleeuw, but depth is thin. Leverkusen's rotation risk is medium due to the cup match, but their starting XI is strong enough. Augsburg have no such concerns, but their squad is depleted. Without Matsima, Augsburg concede more big chances — 3.11 against per away marker. Leverkusen's attack, even with absences, should exploit this.

Both teams are defensive and corner-heavy, but Leverkusen dominate possession at 59.1% to Augsburg's 52.3%. This clash of styles means a tactical battle — expect a slow tempo initially. Leverkusen will control the ball, pressing high, while Augsburg sit in a low block, relying on counters. Leverkusen's corner advantage is clear: 6.45 per home game vs Augsburg's 4.22 away. Set-pieces will be key, especially with Augsburg's defensive absences. Augsburg struggle to score away, averaging 0.73 xG, but they're corner-heavy too, so dead balls could produce goals. Leverkusen's NPxG is 1.74 at home, showing real attacking threat without penalties. This matchup favors Leverkusen's possession and set-piece prowess, but Augsburg's defense might hold initially.

For Leverkusen at home, 15 marker matches tell a story of dominance but vulnerability. Vs Wolfsburg: 6-3 with 4.52 xG, 5 big chances each — a shootout. Vs Bayern: 1-1 with 3.23 xG, but a red card skewed it. Vs Mainz: 1-1 with 1.28 xG, struggling against a low block. Vs Olympiacos: 0-0 with 0.69 xG, failing to break down defense. Vs St. Pauli: 4-0 with 1.58 xG, efficient finishing. Vs Villarreal: 3-0 with 1.93 xG, controlled. Pattern: Leverkusen create 3.46 big chances per home game, but against defensive teams, they can stutter. Corners avg 9.46, with 12 vs Wolfsburg, 4 vs Bayern — volatile but high. For Augsburg away, only 3 markers: all losses. Vs Mainz: 0-2 with 0.70 xG, outplayed. Vs Frankfurt: 0-1 with 0.62 xG, creating little. Vs Hoffenheim: 0-3 with 0.96 xG, overwhelmed. Pattern: Augsburg average 0.73 xG away, concede 1.88 xG, and get 0.89 big chances for vs 3.11 against. They're toothless on the road and defensively shaky. Overlap: Leverkusen's home strength vs Augsburg's away weakness — Leverkusen should dominate.

Only two meetings in the last 12 months. December 2025: Leverkusen lost 0-2 away to Augsburg, with 1.63 xG vs 1.28 xG — they were better by xG but lost. April 2025: Leverkusen won 2-0 at home, with 0.86 xG vs 0.68 xG — a tight game. xG totals were low: 2.45 on average. Both teams had similar coaches and squads, but Leverkusen's home advantage held. The away loss was an anomaly — Leverkusen had 3 big chances but couldn't score. Augsburg capitalized on counters. This time at home, Leverkusen will be more clinical. H2H suggests a low-scoring affair, but current form overrides.

xG: Leverkusen 1.95 vs Augsburg 0.73 — huge disparity. Corners: Leverkusen 6.45, Augsburg 4.22, total 9.46 vs 9.11 — both teams produce corners, Leverkusen edge. Yellow cards: Leverkusen 1.58, Augsburg 1.89, total 3.79 vs 3.67 — around league average. Shots on target: Leverkusen 5.63, Augsburg 3.89 — Leverkusen more accurate. First-half patterns: Leverkusen 1H goals 1.12, xG 0.84; Augsburg 1H goals against 1.11, xG against 1.06. 1H corners: Leverkusen 2.04, Augsburg 2.67, total 3.18 vs 5.34 — Augsburg start aggressively. 1H big chances: Leverkusen 1.54, Augsburg 0.44 — Leverkusen create early. Back Leverkusen 1H goals, but Augsburg might get corners.

Bookmakers offer Home Win at 1.40, Draw at 5.00, Away Win at 7.00. Fair probabilities: Home 67.6% (odds 1.48), Draw 18.9% (5.29), Away 13.5% (7.40). My estimate: Home Win 70% = fair odds 1.43, bookmaker 1.40 — slight negative EV (-0.02). Over 2.5 at 1.44: fair probability based on markers is 65% (Leverkusen home total xG 3.01, Augsburg away 2.61) = fair odds 1.54, bookmaker 1.44 — value with EV +0.06. BTTS Yes at 1.61: probability 55% (Leverkusen home BTTS in 8/15, Augsburg away in 9/15) = fair odds 1.82, bookmaker 1.61 — value +0.09. Asian handicap -1.25 at 1.85: Leverkusen win by 2+ in 7/15 home markers, probability 50% = fair odds 2.00, bookmaker 1.85 — value +0.08. Odds movements: Over 2.5 shortened from 2.50 to 1.44, indicating sharp money on goals.