Bologna vs AS Roma - AI Prediction & Analysis

Bologna sit 8th with 48 points, 10 behind Roma in 6th. With five matches left, a win is crucial to keep faint European hopes alive. Their upcoming schedule is brutal Napoli, Atalanta, Inter away. Every point at home is gold. Roma are comfortable in 6th but still need points to fend off challengers. However, they have the derby against Lazio next week which might be in the back of their minds. Roma's away form is poor, and they might be content with a point here. The motivational edge goes to Bologna, but desperation can lead to impatience against a disciplined Roma defense.

Bologna's form is erratic. Last seven: losses to Juventus (0-2, xG 1.10-0.54) and Aston Villa (0-4, xG 2.41-0.96) show they struggle against strong sides, but they beat Lecce 2-0 (xG 2.18-0.32) and Cremonese 2-1 (xG 1.42-1.14). At home, they've lost three of their last five (to Villa, Lazio, Verona), underperforming xG by 0.52 goals per game regression risk moderate. Roma have been overperforming xG by 0.64 overall, scoring 1.9 from 1.26 xG. Their away form is dire: lost five of their last seven away (Inter, Como, Genoa, Udinese, Panathinaikos) and drew the other two. They conceded 5 at Inter and 2 at Como. Regression is coming.

Bologna are without key goalkeeper Skorupski and midfielder Domínguez both injured. Forward Dallinga is doubtful. That's a big hit their defensive stability and attacking depth. Roma are missing captain Pellegrini and midfielder Koné doubtful but have a deeper squad. The absence of Skorupski could make Bologna more vulnerable to set pieces, while Roma's midfield creativity is slightly dented without Pellegrini.

Both teams are defensive-minded and corner-heavy. Bologna average 54.2% possession, Roma 58.8%. This will be a tactical chess match with low risk-taking. Bologna have struggled to break down similar defensive sides at home as marker data shows 6/6 under 2.5 goals. Roma away also produce low-scoring matches 5/6 under 2.5 in markers. Expect few clear chances, lots of fouls and cards, and a tight contest decided by set pieces or a single moment.

Bologna at home against similar defensive teams have been a goal desert. Six marker matches all ended under 2.5 goals with only 6 total goals across them. Under 2.5 hit 6/6. The xG totals were moderate (avg 2.47) but actual goals were suppressed. Matches like 0-0 vs Torino (xG 0.97) and 0-2 vs Lazio (xG 3.17) highlight both defensive solidity and attacking inefficiency. Roma away markers also scream low goals: 5/6 under 2.5, with only one match over (3 goals at Genoa). The away markers show Roma struggle to create against organized defenses avg xG 1.09 for, and they often concede little (avg xG against 1.41 but goals against 1.17). The pattern is clear: when these defensive styles meet, goals are scarce.

Only two recent meetings both in Europa League. The first was a 1-1 draw in Bologna (xG 1.46-1.35, corners 7-3). The second was a wild 4-3 Roma win in Rome (xG 2.19-1.75, corners 8-4). Both matches were open, but the 1-1 at this venue is more relevant. H2H is a small sample and heavily influenced by the second leg where Roma chased the game. For this league encounter, the first leg pattern of low goal is more likely.

First half goals are rare: Bologna home markers avg 0.00 1H goals, Roma away 0.39. Under 1.5 1H goals is a strong candidate but odds unavailable. Corners average 7.82 total in Bologna home markers and 9.38 in Roma away markers suggesting around 8-9 total. Yellow cards average 3.6 in Bologna home markers and 4.93 in Roma away markers both above league average (3.7). Fouls are consistent around 30 per match. Bologna home markers show only 2/6 BTTS, Roma away 2/6 BTTS.

Odds have moved sharply towards Under 2.5 shorted from 2.10 to 1.73. The market is pricing in a low-scoring game. Under 2.5 at 1.73 offers value if estimated probability is 65% (fair odds 1.54). BTTS No at 1.95 is also attractive given marker data suggesting 40% BTTS rate. Cards Over 3.5 at 1.83 aligns with averages. Corners Under 8.5 at 2.00 is borderline but supported by Bologna home markers averaging 7.8. The win market overprices Roma (2.35) given their poor away form, offering value on draw or Bologna.