Cavalry FC vs FC Supra Du Quebec - AI Prediction & Analysis

Cavalry FC sit 2nd with 23 points, just 2 points off top, with a strong +14 goal difference. Every home match is a chance to close the gap, and they've won 3 of their last 4 at home. FC Supra Du Quebec are 5th with 11 points, 12 points behind, and have lost 3 of their last 4 away. For Cavalry, the title race is heating up, so motivation is max. Supra are mid-table with little to fight for except pride. The gap in quality and ambition is clear.

Cavalry have won 3 of their last 4 home matches, with 3-0, 2-0, 1-1 (only draw vs Inter Toronto). They average 1.98 xG for and 0.68 xG against at home in markers, but have overperformed in goals (3 per game vs 1.83 xG) - regression risk. Their defense is solid: only 0.33 big chances conceded per marker. FC Supra Du Quebec have lost 2 of their last 3 away, drawing the other. They concede 1.89 xG and 4.89 big chances per away marker, while scoring 1.50 xG. They've scored in 3 of 4 away but also conceded in all. Their 5-3 loss to Atletico Ottawa shows they can be overwhelmed.

Both teams have full squads available. Cavalry have 18 key players all fit, and Supra have 11 key players available. No injury concerns. Lineups are estimated, so no surprise absences expected.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy, but there's a clear gulf in execution. At home, Cavalry dominate possession (52.2%) and create 2.67 big chances per marker while conceding just 0.33. Supra away are more defensive (49.6% possession) but leaky: they allow 7.33 corners and 4.89 big chances per match. The clash of two cautious styles might produce low open-play chances, but set pieces and counter-attacks could be decisive. Cavalry's corner-heavy approach (7.78 for at home) vs Supra's 3.11 away suggests a corner mismatch.

For Cavalry at home: vs HFX Wanderers (2-0, BC 2-1, corners 9-1) - dominant but not wasteful. vs Pacific FC (3-0, xG 2.18-0.64, BC 4-0) - clinical finishing. vs Inter Toronto (1-1, xG 1.64-0.48, BC 1-0, corners 13-4) - should have won, unlucky draw. vs Atletico Ottawa (3-1, xG 2.10-1.05, BC 4-0) - efficient. Pattern: Cavalry create 2-4 big chances, concede almost none at home, and produce high corners (7-13). For Supra away: vs Atletico Ottawa (3-5, BC 1-8) - got hammered despite scoring. vs Vancouver FC (1-1, xG 1.60-2.25, BC 2-4) - lucky to draw. vs Forge FC (0-1, xG 0.68-1.29, BC 1-2) - muted attack. vs Pacific FC (3-2, xG 2.51-2.06, BC 5-4) - high-scoring thriller with red card. Pattern: Supra concede many chances (4+ big chances) but also can score, especially with numbers. However, their defense is consistently overwhelmed.

Only one H2H match in last 12 months: May 3, 2026, at Supra's home, Cavalry won 1-0. Cavalry had 1.12 xG vs 0.35, a penalty decided the match. Supra had a red card. Corners were 3-6 in favor of Supra, but Cavalry were the better side. The match was tight, low xG. With Cavalry at home, expect a more one-sided affair.

Cavalry home markers: corners total avg 10.78, cards 4.06, fouls 22.0. Supra away markers: corners 10.44, cards 3.56, fouls 24.67. 1H patterns: Cavalry home 1H corners 4.67, 1H goals 1.23. Supra away 1H corners 3.23, 1H goals 1.89. So first halves could see goals, especially from Supra who have scored 1.56 1H goals away. But Cavalry's defense may limit that.

No odds data available. Based on analysis, Cavalry win probability estimated at 70%, fair odds around 1.43. Without odds, we cannot identify value.