Celta Vigo vs Levante UD - AI Prediction & Analysis

Celta sit 6th with 50 points, firmly in the European hunt with three games left. Every point matters to secure a continental spot, but they've been wobbling – just one win in their last six overall. Levante are 19th, 36 points, three from safety with three to play. Desperation is the word. They need points more than anyone, and their recent form (4 wins in 7 overall) shows fight. Calendar-wise, both have winnable next matches: Celta visit Athletic, Levante host Mallorca. But for Levante, each match is final. The motivation gap favours the visitors – Celta must not slip, but Levante have no choice but to attack. This could lead to an open game as Levante chase points and Celta seek to exploit gaps left by a desperate opponent.

Celta's last seven are a mess. The 1-0 win at Atlético (xG 2.04-0.13) was a smash-and-grab classic – they created 4 big chances to 1 and dominated corners 10-0. But that was the outlier. Since then, losses to Villarreal (2-1, xG 1.72-2.08), Barcelona (1-0, xG 1.23-1.41), and humiliating home defeats to Freiburg (1-3) and Real Oviedo (0-3) expose real fragility. At home, Celta have lost three of their last four, conceding 10 goals. The xG divergence is fair at home (1.5 goals from 1.47 xG), so they're not lucky – they're just defensively open. Levante, in contrast, have been on a tear overall: 4-2 vs Real Oviedo, 1-0 vs Getafe, 2-0 vs Sevilla, and 3-2 vs Osasuna (xG 3.22-0.63). Their away form is woeful – 0 wins in last five – but they've produced decent xG numbers (0.73 per game away, scoring 0.7). The 5-1 thrashing at Villarreal (xG 0.75-2.22) and 2-0 at Real Sociedad (xG 0.28-2.78) show they get outclassed by quality sides, but Celta aren't top-tier. Levante create chances – 4+ big chances in 4 of last 6 matches – and they're scoring consistently (13/20 overall). They won't roll over.

Celta are missing key midfielder Miguel Román (injured) and forward Alfon González (doubtful). Román's absence weakens midfield creativity, but Ilaix Moriba and Hugo Sotelo can fill in. Levante are without their creative midfielder Carlos Álvarez (doubtful) and key striker Iván Romero (injured). Romero's pace and finishing are big losses; Carlos Espí leads the line now. Both sides have key absences, but Levante's hit harder given their thinner squad. Rotation risk is low for both with five days to next match, so full-strength lineups expected. Celta's bench is deeper, which could matter late.

Both teams are labelled defensive and corner-heavy, but that's misleading for this clash. Celta at home average just 49.6% possession but have been involved in high-scoring games (3-1, 0-3, 3-4 recently). Their 'defensive' tag comes from sitting deep against stronger sides, but against Levante, they'll be on the front foot. Levante away average 41.7% possession and are happy to defend deep and counter. This creates a classic 'attacker vs defender' scenario, but Levante's counters are dangerous – they've scored in 3 of last 5 away. The match type is 'tactical battle' but the data suggests goals: Celta home markers total xG 2.70, Levante away markers total xG 2.69. Corners could be plentiful as both are corner-heavy, but Celta's home markers show low corner totals (avg 5.44). Expect direct play rather than patient build-up.

Celta's home markers (3 matches) reveal a pattern of chaos. vs Elche (3-1): xG 0.82-1.45, but Celta won thanks to a penalty conceded and clinical finishing. Elche dominated shots 15-6 and had more xG – Celta were second-best but efficient. vs Real Oviedo (0-3): xG 0.91-1.71, Celta had 68% possession but created only 3 big chances and conceded 3. Defensive lapses punished them. vs Alavés (3-4): xG 1.84-1.83, a wild game with 7 goals, 6 big chances combined, and both teams trading blows. Celta's defence was wide open. The pattern: Celta at home are vulnerable to counters and set-piece goals, but they also create chances. Games average 4.67 goals, but xG total is 2.70 – some overperformance. Levante's away markers (10 matches) show a consistent pattern of low xG for, high xG against. They rarely dominate: at Villarreal (1-5) xG 0.75-2.22, at Barcelona (0-3) xG 0.53-2.88, at Real Sociedad (0-2) xG 0.28-2.78 – all heavy losses. But they have two away draws where they competed: at Espanyol (0-0, xG 1.02-0.57, had a red card) and at Rayo (1-1, xG 1.20-1.88, also a red card). At Valencia (0-1) xG 0.72-1.49, at Osasuna (0-2) xG 0.48-1.05 – they defend deep but are not invincible. The key: Levante's away matches average 2.0 goals, but that's skewed by red cards. Without reds, it's more open. The pattern against mid-table/weaker sides: they can frustrate and even score. Against Celta, who are not a top possession team, Levante may have opportunities on the break. The overlap of patterns suggests goals – Celta concede at home, Levante concede away, and both have attacking moments.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: Celta won 2-1 away in November 2025. Celta had 2.00 xG to Levante's 1.20, dominated possession 64%-36%, and shot 20 times. Levante had a man sent off in the 29th minute, which shaped the game. Still, Celta were superior even before the red card (1H xG 0.75-1.00, but Levante had a big chance). That match suggests Celta can control possession and create, while Levante can threaten on the break. Coaches are the same, squad changes moderate (5 for Celta, 4 for Levante), so some relevance. Expect a similar dynamic but at Celta's home, which should amplify Celta's advantage.

First-half patterns: Celta home markers average 1H goals for 2.33 – high, but small sample (3). Levante away markers 1H goals against 1.03. 1H corners: Celta home 2.00 total, Levante away 3.88 total – suggests slow start for corners. Yellow cards: Celta home 1.34 total 1H, Levante away 2.10 total 1H – above league average. Fouls: both teams commit similar 1H fouls (Celta 6.67, Levante 6.31). Shots on target: 1H SoT total 5.67 (Celta) vs 3.30 (Levante) – Celta more active early. Given Celta's 1H goal average, over 0.5 1H goals is likely (odds not given, but implied by odds on 1H home win at 2.30). Possibly value on 1H Over 1.5 at maybe 2.50? Not provided.

Bookmaker margin-removed probabilities: Home 53.3% (fair odds 1.88), Draw 24.6% (4.07), Away 22.1% (4.52). Actual odds: Home 1.80, Draw 3.90, Away 4.33. Home win has been backed (drifted from 1.70 to 1.80), draw drifted from 3.60 to 3.90, away shortened from 4.75 to 4.50 – suggests smart money on Levante. Over 2.5 at 1.80 (implied 55.6%), Under at 2.00 (50%). Over 2.5 has been slightly backed (odds shortened from 1.85 to 1.80). BTTS Yes 1.75 (57.1%), No 2.00 (50%). Community heavily on BTTS Yes (77%). Cards Over 4.5 at 1.67 (59.9% implied) – high compared to marker averages? Celta home cards avg 3.23, Levante away avg 4.92, combined maybe 4.1, so Over 4.5 might be 50-55%? Probably value on Under 4.5 at 2.10. Corners Under 9.5 at 1.73, Over 9.5 at 2.00. Marker data: Celta home total corners 5.44, Levante away 10.40 – but that's vs strong opposition. Likely around 9-10. Slight value on Over 9.5? Not clear. My estimate: Home win 55% (fair odds 1.82, odds 1.80 – marginal value for bookie), Draw 25%, Away 20%. Over 2.5 58% (fair 1.72, odds 1.80 – slight value on Under?), Under 2.5 42%. BTTS Yes 60% (fair 1.67, odds 1.75 – value on No?). Given Celta's home markers and Levante's away, I lean Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. Expected value for Over 2.5: (0.58 * 1.80) - 1 = 0.044, marginal. For BTTS Yes: (0.60 * 1.75) - 1 = 0.05. Small value. Better value may be on Levante +0.75 Asian handicap (1.82) if you think Levante can stay close, but not confident.