Charlton Athletic vs Hull City - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is a classic end-of-season clash with everything on the line. Charlton sit 21st, deep in relegation territory, needing points to stay up. Every game is a final for them. Hull are 7th, locked in a playoff battle, and can't afford to drop points with Norwich and Swansea lurking. Both teams have tough final fixtures – Charlton travel to Swansea, Hull host Norwich – so this match is a critical six-pointer in their respective fights. The Valley will be rocking, but the pressure might favour the more experienced Hull side. However, desperation can be a powerful motivator, and Charlton have shown they can grind out results against top sides at home (see Birmingham win). Expect a tense, high-stakes battle with neither side wanting to lose.

Charlton are in dire straits – winless in seven, with just one home win in their last seven at The Valley. Their xG numbers tell a story of underperformance: they create chances (avg xG 1.19 overall, 1.25 at home) but can't finish, scoring only 0.8 goals per game overall and 0.7 at home. That 0.55 xG underperformance at home is a regression risk, but it's been ongoing. Their last win was a 1-0 grind against Birmingham where they defended deep. Hull, by contrast, have been inconsistent but slightly overperforming away from home (avg xG 0.93, but scoring 1.3 goals per game). That +0.37 xG difference screams regression, especially against a desperate Charlton defence. Their last away win was a 1-0 at Portsmouth where they weathered a storm (2 shots, 22 for Portsmouth). Hull's form is patchy – one win in six overall – but they've been tough to beat.

Both sides are weakened in defence. Charlton are missing key right-back Kayne Ramsay, who has been a regular starter. His absence could be exploited by Hull's wide players. Hull are without two key men: defender Cody Drameh and midfielder Toby Collyer. Drameh's absence hurts their backline, while Collyer is the engine in midfield. That's a double blow. Hull also have three rotation players out, so depth is thin. Charlton's only other absence is Josh Edwards, a rotation left-back. Defensively, both teams will be vulnerable, which might cancel out the defensive styles. But with key creators missing, goals could come from set pieces or errors.

Both teams are labelled as defensive and corner-heavy, but their possession numbers are nearly identical (around 46%). This is a tactical battle where neither dominates the ball. Charlton at home actually see less possession (46% avg), so they are used to sitting deep and hitting on the counter. Hull away also have low possession (47%) and are comfortable in a low block. That suggests a match where both teams cede the ball, leading to few open-play chances. However, both are corner-heavy: Charlton average 5.7 corners at home, Hull 4.7 away. The total corners from markers is around 10.5, so corners could be a key attacking avenue. With both missing defenders, set-pieces become even more important. Don't expect a classic – expect fouls, long balls, and second balls.

Let's dig into the marker data. For Charlton at home against similar defensive sides, we have seven matches. There's one anomaly: the Bristol City game (1-2) had 4 big chances each and 2.61 xG against – that was a high-scoring outlier. The Norwich loss (0-1) had 1.78 xG against, but Charlton created 4 big chances themselves – they just couldn't score. The Birmingham win (1-0) was a tight affair with xG 0.76-0.35. Overall, the home markers show an average total xG of 2.62, with corners at 9.9. But note: two matches had red cards (Derby and Sheffield Utd), which can lower goals and corners. Excluding those, the pattern is low-scoring: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2. For Hull away, eight matches show an average total xG of 2.72, corners 11.1. The Leicester draw (2-2) and Oxford draw (1-1) were high xG affairs, but red cards also featured (Sheff Utd, West Brom). Hull's away markers against defensive teams often see them create few chances but concede xG. The pattern: Hull score in 6/8 away markers, but concede in 7/8. That's a strong BTTS signal. The tactical pattern: both teams struggle to create from open play but are vulnerable to set-pieces and counters. Overlaps: total goals in markers average 2.6-2.7, which is slightly above the market line of 2.5. But with red cards distorting, I'd expect a tighter affair.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: on October 25, 2025, Charlton drew 1-1 at Hull. The stats were interesting: Charlton had xG 1.95-1.11 and created 4 big chances to Hull's 2. They dominated the first half (0-0) but couldn't hold the lead. Corners were 2-6 in Hull's favour, and cards 1-2. That match shows Charlton can compete and create against Hull. Both coaches are still the same, and squad changes are minimal. So the H2H suggests a competitive game where Charlton might have the edge in chances but Hull are dangerous on the break. The 1-1 scoreline is a plausible repeat.

First half patterns: Charlton at home average 1H goals 1.13 (0.3 for, 0.83 against). Hull away average 1H goals 1.57 (0.69 for, 0.88 against). So first halves tend to have goals – in fact, Hull's 1H xG is 1.31 compared to full-time 2.72, meaning 48% of xG comes in the first half. Over 0.5 1H goals is very likely. Corners: Charlton home 1H corners 2.5, Hull away 1H corners 5.76. So Hull tend to concede corners in the first half. 1H yellow cards: Charlton 0.25, Hull 0.5, so few early cards. The referee Tom Nield averages 3.56 yellows per match, below the league average of 4.1. With both teams not card-heavy (Charlton home avg 3.6 total, Hull away 3.7), under 4.5 cards at 1.61 looks appealing. The market has moved towards under 2.5 goals odds shortening, but the marker data suggests goals around 2.6-2.7. Over 2.5 at 2.00 might offer value.

The bookmaker odds imply a tight match: home win 33%, draw 29%, away win 38%. Hull are slight favourites but their away form is iffy. BTTS Yes is priced at 1.73 (58% implied), which is close to the marker frequency of 56-60%. No obvious value there. Over 2.5 at 2.00 (50%) vs my estimate of 52-55% gives slight value, but the under 2.5 odds shortening suggests sharp money on under. Cards under 4.5 at 1.61 (62%) vs my estimate of 65% gives an edge, especially given the referee. The EV on Under 4.5 Cards is positive: (0.65 * 1.61) - 1 = 0.0465, about 4.7% edge. Corners over 9.5 at 1.80 (55.6%) vs marker avg 10.5 (55% probability) is fair, no clear value. The value play is on low cards.