Coritiba vs Internacional - AI Prediction & Analysis

Mid-table clash with only 2 points separating 8th-placed Coritiba (19pts) and 12th-placed Internacional (17pts). Neither side is in serious danger or pushing for continental spots at this stage, but a win could provide a significant boost. Coritiba have the advantage of playing at home, but their upcoming Copa do Brasil match in 4 days might see slight rotation. Internacional have a cup fixture in 3 days, but their focus on the league is questionable given their position. However, both teams have low rotation risk based on squad depth, and motivation should be high for a direct rival. Coritiba's form at home has been mixed but they've shown resilience, while Internacional have been inconsistent on the road. The psychological edge might lean towards Coritiba, but their injury list is massive.

Coritiba's overall form is overperforming xG by +0.26 per match, but at home they are fairly matched (avg xG 0.9 vs 0.83 goals). Their last 4 home matches: 2-0 win vs Atletico Mineiro (xG 1.04-1.15, big chances 1-0, corner domination against), 1-1 vs Vasco (xG 1.58-0.51, dominant), 1-0 vs Remo (xG 0.88-0.70, tight), 0-1 vs Sao Paulo (xG 0.90-1.32, unlucky). Notice all four home matches had under 2.5 goals (total 2, 2, 1, 1). Coritiba are scoring just 1.0 goal per match at home and conceding 0.75. They rely on defensive organization and set pieces. Internacional, on the other hand, are underperforming xG overall (-0.29 per match) but away from home their xG is fair (0.84 xG vs 1.0 goals per match). Their away matches: 2-2 at Botafogo (xG 0.31-1.36, lucky), 1-0 at Corinthians (xG 0.37-1.35, overperformed), 2-1 at Santos (xG 1.24-1.17, fair), 0-1 at Atletico Mineiro (xG 1.81-0.76, dominated), 0-3 at Gremio (xG 0.31-1.37, red card), 1-1 at Remo (xG 1.17-1.40), 1-5 at Vasco (xG 1.12-2.31, blowout). Three of seven away matches produced over 2.5 goals, but four went under. Internacional are a bit more open away, averaging 1.43 goals scored and conceded per match.

Coritiba have a massive injury crisis: 6 key players absent, including defenders Bruno Melo, Jacy Maranhao, Thiago Santos, Tiago Coser, goalkeeper Pedro Morisco, and midfielder Breno Lopes. That's their entire defensive spine and a key midfielder. Depth is severely tested, especially at the back. Internacional also have key absences: midfielder Fernando, defender Gabriel Mercado, and goalkeeper Sergio Rochet (doubtful). Losing Rochet would be a blow, but they have reasonable cover. Coritiba's depleted defence is a major concern against an Internacional side that can create chances, but Inter's own missing players reduce their attacking threat. Both teams will likely be cautious, but Coritiba's defensive injuries could lead to mistakes.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy, but the numbers tell a different story. Coritiba at home have low possession (41.3%) and rely on counter-attacks and set pieces. They concede many corners (6.07 against per match) and shots (17.36 per match), but their defence has been solid. Internacional away are more balanced with 48.6% possession, but they also concede many corners (4.14 against) and take many themselves (7.37 for). The clash of two defensive teams often leads to a tight affair, but with Coritiba's defensive injuries, Internacional might find opportunities. However, both sides lack cutting edge without key players. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring game, but corners could be plentiful, especially for Internacional.

Coritiba home markers (4 matches): vs Atletico Mineiro (2-0, xG 1.04-1.15, BC 1-0, corners 2-8, red card for Atletico at 90'); vs Vasco (1-1, xG 1.58-0.51, BC 1-0, corners 3-4); vs Remo (1-0, xG 0.88-0.70, BC 2-1, corners 4-6); vs Red Bull Bragantino (0-1, xG 0.31-2.77, BC 0-5, corners 1-5, red card early for Bragantino at 30'). Key pattern: all four matches had under 2.5 goals (2, 2, 1, 1). Total goals average 1.0 per match. Coritiba rely on a tight defence and occasional counter. Despite low xG, they are efficient. However, they concede a lot of corners (avg 5.75 against) and shots. Internacional away markers (7 matches): vs Botafogo (2-2, xG 0.31-1.36, BC 0-2, corners 5-3); vs Corinthians (1-0, xG 0.37-1.35, BC 0-2, corners 4-7); vs Santos (2-1, xG 1.24-1.17, BC 3-1, corners 8-3); vs Atletico Mineiro (0-1, xG 1.81-0.76, BC 3-3, corners 14-2); vs Gremio (0-3, xG 0.31-1.37, BC 1-2, corners 2-4, red card); vs Remo (1-1, xG 1.17-1.40, BC 1-3, corners 12-7); vs Vasco (1-5, xG 1.12-2.31, BC 2-5, corners 4-3). Total goals: 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 6. Overs in 4 of 7. Internacional's away matches are more open, but they also have clean sheet issues (only 1 clean sheet in 7 away). Against a depleted Coritiba defence, they might fancy their chances. However, Coritiba's home markers show they can frustrate opponents. The pattern conflict suggests a tight game but with potential for goals from Internacional.

No head-to-head matches found between these teams in the last 12 months. Historical H2H shows 10 meetings: Coritiba 1 win, 4 draws, 5 wins for Internacional. But we lack detailed data, so we cannot draw tactical patterns from H2H. Confidence is low.

First half patterns: Coritiba home markers average 1.54 total goals in first half (0.67 for, 0.87 against), with 1H corners total 4.26. Internacional away markers average 1.00 total goals in first half (0.30 for, 0.70 against), with 1H corners total 5.19. So both teams tend to be more active in the first half, especially Coritiba conceding early. Full match totals: corners - Coritiba home 8.83, Internacional away 11.51, combined average 10.17, just above the line of 9.5. Yellow cards: Coritiba home 3.73, Internacional away 4.85, combined 4.29, well under the line of 5.5 (league avg 4.7). Referee Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes averages 5.49 yellows per match, significantly higher than league average. This could push cards over 5.5. Fouls: Coritiba home 24.73, Internacional away 29.66, combined 27.19, high. Expect a physical match with many cards.

Odds have shifted significantly towards an away win (winner away shortened from 3.10 to 2.65, drifted on home win from 2.32 to 2.70). Market expecting Internacional to get something. Over 2.5 goals shortened from 2.40 to 2.20, Under 2.5 drifted from 1.53 to 1.65. So bookmakers lean towards goals. However, margin-removed fair probabilities: home win 34.9%, draw 29.5%, away win 35.6%. My estimate: given Coritiba's home record and injuries, I see away win chance around 40%, home win 30%, draw 30%. Compare to fair odds: away win fair 2.81, available 2.65 - no value. Under 2.5 fair odds? My probability for Under 2.5: considering Coritiba's home all unders and Inter's mixed, I estimate 55% Under 2.5. Fair odds = 1.82, bookmaker offers 1.65 - negative EV (-0.09). So Under 2.5 is not value. Over 2.5 fair odds 2.22 (45% prob), available 2.20 - roughly fair. But considering Inter's away overs rate (4/7) and Coritiba's missing defenders, over 2.5 might have slight edge. Bookmaker odds suggest a close match, but I lean towards goals.