Cremonese vs Pisa - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is a massive six-pointer at the bottom of Serie A. Cremonese sit 18th, just 2 points from safety, with two tough games ahead (away to Udinese, home to Como). Every point is gold. Pisa, on the other hand, are 10 points adrift with 3 games left – they'd need a miracle. The gap is so big that morale is shot: Pisa have lost 6 straight overall and 5 straight away. Cremonese have the crowd behind them at Stadio Giovanni Zini and a genuine survival incentive. Pisa are playing for pride only, and their recent away performances suggest they've already checked out. The motivational gap is clear – Cremonese intensity should be higher, especially in the first half.

Cremonese have been dreadful overall but slightly better at home. Last 6 home: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses. However, the xG numbers tell a different story: they've underperformed heavily at home (avg xG 1.07 vs 0.5 goals scored). That's a -0.57 gap – regression risk is real. Against weaker sides like Genoa and Hellas Verona, they created chances but failed to finish. Pisa away form is a horror show: 5 consecutive losses, scoring just 1 goal in their last 4 away matches. Their xG away isn't as bad (0.96 per game) but they consistently fail to convert. Against comparable opposition (Como, Parma, Fiorentina), they created chances but leaked goals. Both teams are goal-shy, but Cremonese have the xG narrative pointing to a potential breakout.

Cremonese are missing key striker Faris Moumbagna (injured) and defender Federico Baschirotto (doubtful). Moumbagna's absence is huge – he's their main aerial threat. Without him, Jamie Vardy (37 years old) leads the line, but he's not the same finisher. Pisa have two key doubts: midfielder Marius Marin and forward Matteo Tramoni. Marin is their creative hub; without him, the midfield lacks invention. Tramoni is their top scorer with 7 goals – his absence kills their attacking transition. Both teams will struggle to create clear chances. The benches are thin, so substitutions won't change the game much.

This is a clash of two defensive-minded teams. Cremonese play a 4-4-2 under Giampaolo, sitting deep and hitting on the counter. Their home markers show low possession (46%) but high corner counts (10.77 total). Pisa use a 3-5-2 low block under Hiljemark, with even lower possession (41.8% away). Both teams concede the midfield and rely on set pieces. Total xG in home markers for Cremonese is 2.82, but actual goals are lower – suggesting defensive solidity from opponents. Pisa's away marker total xG is just 1.98. This screams a tactical stalemate: few big chances, lots of fouls, and a low-scoring affair. Corners will come from defensive clearances, not attacking pressure.

Cremonese home markers (5 matches): vs Fiorentina (1-4), Genoa (0-0), Hellas Verona (0-0), Cagliari (2-2), Lecce (2-0). Average xG total 2.82, but only two matches had over 2.5 goals. Against Fiorentina they conceded 4 but created 1.43 xG. Against Cagliari and Lecce they scored 2 each, but those were against weak sides. The 0-0 draws vs Genoa and Verona show they struggle to break down organized defenses. Big chances average 2.4 per game for them, but conversion is poor. Pisa away markers: vs Fiorentina (0-1), Hellas Verona (0-0), Genoa (1-1), Cagliari (2-2), Lecce (0-1). Total xG 1.98, and only two matches had over 2.5 goals. They created chances vs Cagliari (2.54 xG) and Genoa (0.62 xG) but still drew. The pattern is clear: both teams are low-scoring and defensive. When they face each other, expect a grind.

Only 2 H2H matches in the last 12 months, both at Pisa. Cremonese lost 0-1 in November 2025 (xG 0.97-0.92, even) and 1-2 in May 2025 (xG 1.19-1.40, Pisa slightly better). Both matches had under 2.5 goals (1 and 3 goals respectively). The xG totals were 1.89 and 2.59 – low. The pattern is consistent: tight, low-scoring affairs with Pisa edging it. Both coaches are still the same, but Cremonese have rotated heavily (10 squad changes). Still, the historical trend points to a low-scoring match.

Small markets show clear signals. Cremonese home markers average 10.77 total corners, Pisa away 9.54. Both are above the bookmaker line of 8.5. Fouls are consistent (27.4 home, 28.1 away) – expect a stop-start game with many set pieces. Yellow cards: Cremonese home avg 2.4, Pisa away avg 4.33. Referee Ayroldi averages 5.53 yellows per match, well above league average (3.7). However, the card market has moved significantly: Over 4.5 drifted from 1.83 to 2.10, Under 4.5 shortened. This suggests sharp money on low cards. But with such a high-average referee, I'd lean to Over 3.5 at 1.67. Shots on target: Cremonese home 4.23, Pisa away 1.87 – Pisa struggles to test the keeper. First-half patterns: both teams score early? Cremonese 1H goals for 0.67, against 1.33; Pisa 1H goals for 1.00, against 0.61. But totals are low. BTTS Yes in markers: Cremonese 2/5 home, Pisa 2/5 away. So BTTS occurs 40% of the time. Given Pisa's away scoring issues, BTTS No looks strong.

Bookmakers have Cremonese as clear favorites at 1.70 (fair probability 55.8%). The community is even more bullish at 76%. However, the draw (3.75) and away win (5.00) are overpriced. Goals: Over 2.5 at 2.10, Under 2.5 at 1.73. Given both teams' defensive styles and low xG totals, Under 2.5 seems the value. My estimate: 62% probability of Under 2.5, fair odds 1.61. The bookie offers 1.73 – positive EV (0.072). For BTTS No at 1.70, my estimate 63% (fair 1.59) gives EV 0.074. Cards market moved against Over 4.5, but referee history favors high cards. I'm cautious. Corner market: Over 8.5 at 1.80, both teams average >10, estimate 67% probability (fair 1.49) – strong EV (0.206).