Cuiabá vs Vila Nova FC - AI Prediction & Analysis
Brasileirão Série BFinished
Risk Level
medium riskCuiabá's home marker matches average only 0.5 total goals per game (2 goals in 4 games), supporting Under 2.5 at 1.40.
Vila Nova's away marker matches average 1.33 goals (excluding the 3-3 at Ceará), reinforcing low-scoring theme.
Both teams missing their top attackers (Hernandes for Cuiabá, Dellatorre/Rafael Silva for Vila Nova), significantly reducing goal threat.
Cuiabá have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home matches, while Vila Nova have scored in 4 straight away games but now face a disciplined defense.
Marker Matches
Head-to-Head
Odds
Double chance
1st half
Both teams to score
Match goals
Draw no bet
Winner
Asian handicap
Corners 2-Way
First team to score
Pressure Index
AI Analysis
How we predictVila Nova need the win to maintain top spot, but their injury list might force a cautious approach. Cuiabá are comfortable mid-table, not desperate for points, but want to protect home pride. Both have reasons to not lose, which often leads to stalemates. Motivation: Vila Nova 9/10, Cuiabá 6/10.
Cuiabá have won 2 of last 3, but home form is deceptive: they've only scored 0.7 goals per home game despite 1.44 xG—massive underperformance. Regression suggests goals should come, but without Hernandes, maybe not. Vila Nova are on a 4-game winning streak, but their away games have been tight (wins by 1 goal margins). They have scored in 4 straight away games, but conceded in 3 of last 4 away. Their defense is not impenetrable.
Vila Nova missing 4 key players: top scorer Dellatorre, playmaker Rafael Silva, defensive midfielder Maranhão, and defender Romano. That's a huge blow. Their attack loses creativity and finishing. Cuiabá missing Hernandes (key forward) and Nathan Cardoso (key defender). Both teams weakened significantly.
Tactical battle in midfield. Vila Nova will have 60% possession but will face a low block. Expect few shots on target. The game will be scrappy, with fouls and yellow cards. Corners could come from Vila Nova's possession, but Cuiabá's defense will limit chances.
Cuiabá home markers: average total goals 0.75 per game (2 goals in 4 matches). Only 1 match had over 1.5 goals. Conceded only 2 goals in 4. Defensive solidity confirmed. Vila Nova away markers: average total goals 2.33 per game (7 goals in 3) but one match was 3-3. Excluding that, average 1.0 goals per game in the other two. Marker patterns overlap: low-scoring when both teams have 11 players.
Only one meeting: 2-2 draw last season. Both teams created chances. But that was with full-strength squads. Injuries now likely reduce attacking output.
Under 2.5 is strongly supported. BTTS No also. Corners: average total 8.2 in markers, so Under 9.5 corners at 1.91 has value. Yellow cards: above league average for Vila Nova away, but small sample; caution.
Under 2.5 odds of 1.40 versus my fair odds of 1.33–1.35: slight value. BTTS No at 1.53 versus fair 1.43: stronger value. Home win too short, away win too long given injuries. Draw is the most likely result but not necessarily value at 2.82.
Both Teams to Score - No
Odds
1.53
Why this bet
Cuiabá have kept 2 clean sheets in last 3 home games; Vila Nova have failed to score in only 3 of 20 matches, but without key attackers, their shine dulls. Marker matches show BTTS in 2 of 4 home markers for Cuiabá and 1 of 3 away for Vila Nova. But injury absences reduce attacking potency. BTTS No at 1.53 offers better value than Under 2.5: my estimate 70%, fair odds 1.43, positive EV.
Both teams missing key attackers, defensive styles clash, marker matches average 0.75 goals for Cuiabá home and 1.33 for Vila Nova away (excluding chaotic 3-3). Injury list includes top goalscorers. Under 2.5 at 1.40 is short but solid: my estimate 75% probability, fair odds 1.33. Slight value, but confidence is medium due to small marker sample.
Both markets complement each other: if no goal from one team, likely under 2.5. Covers scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2. Most likely outcomes given defensive styles and injuries. Probability estimate: 65% (70% BTTS No × 75% Under 2.5, but overlapping). Fair odds 1.54, so odds 2.14 offer value.
If 0:0 at halftime
Bet Under 1.5 in 2H