Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club - AI Prediction & Analysis

With five points separating them, Alavés are fighting for survival while Athletic sit comfortably mid-table. Alavés are 16th, only five points above the relegation zone with five games left – every point is vital. Athletic have little to play for except pride and a potential top-half finish. The Basque derby adds spice, but the pressure is entirely on the home side. Upcoming fixtures favour Alavés: they face Elche, Barcelona, Oviedo, and Rayo Vallecano – a mix of manageable and tough. Athletic have Valencia, Espanyol, Celta, and Real Madrid – a harder run-in that might cause subconscious rotation. Expect a tense, cautious start from both, with Alavés desperate not to lose.

Alavés have shown resilience at home – unbeaten in four markers (W2 D2), including a 2-1 win over Mallorca where they out-xG'd them 1.22-0.22. Their 2-2 draw with Girona saw high xG (1.94-2.22) but defensive issues. Overall, Alavés overperform xG (1.8 goals vs 1.43 xG) – regression risk is moderate, but they create chances. Athletic's away form is dire – 4 losses in their last 5 away markers, including a 3-0 loss to Girona despite higher xG (1.84-1.61). They did win 2-1 at Oviedo but needed a penalty. Athletic's xG away is fair (1.38 xG, 1.2 goals), but they leak goals. Both teams show inconsistent results, but Alavés at home have more momentum.

Alavés missing key forward Lucas Boyé (injured) – their top scorer out. This weakens their attack significantly; without him, Diabaté and Mariano Díaz lead the line. Athletic miss key centre-back Aymeric Laporte (doubtful) – a massive blow to their defence. His absence means a less experienced pairing. Also missing rotation midfielders Herrera and Prados, and forward Sannadi. Athletic's attacking core of Iñaki and Nico Williams remains, but defensive solidity is compromised. Alavés have more squad depth available for this match, which favours them.

Both teams are defensive and corner-heavy. Alavés average 50.6% possession, Athletic 48.2% – a balanced battle. Alavés rely on set pieces and counters, Athletic on wide play through the Williams brothers. The defensive styles suggest few open-play chances. But marker data shows both sides concede xG around 1.4-1.5 per match – not impenetrable. Corners: Alavés home avg 12.0 total, Athletic away avg 8.3; combined ~10.2 corners. Fouls high (home 27.6, away 26.1), so cards should be plentiful. The clash of two cautious teams often produces low goals, especially when both miss key attackers (Boyé) and defenders (Laporte).

Deportivo Alavés home markers (4 matches): vs Mallorca (2-1 win, xG 1.22-0.22, BC 1-0, corners 9-4, foul heavy), vs Girona (2-2, xG 1.94-2.22, BC 3-2, corners 7-6), vs Oviedo (1-1, xG 1.83-2.44, BC 4-6, corners 6-7, red card involved), vs Espanyol (2-1, xG 1.22-1.06, BC 4-1, corners 1-6, red card). Pattern: Alavés win or draw, xG totals around 3, corners high (avg 11.5). Red cards in 2 of 4 show physicality. Athletic Club away markers (7 matches, one with early red reduced weight): vs Girona (0-3 loss, xG 1.84-1.61, BC 2-3, corners 9-2), vs Rayo (1-1, xG 0.54-1.44, BC 0-3, corners 4-5), vs Oviedo (2-1 win, xG 1.29-0.34, BC 1-2, corners 3-2), vs Sevilla (1-2 loss, xG 2.14-2.07, BC 3-2, corners 5-5), vs Mallorca (2-3 loss, xG 2.08-2.79, BC 4-6, corners 7-3, red card), vs Levante (2-0 win, xG 2.90-1.30, BC 4-1, corners 2-4), vs Newcastle (0-2 loss, xG 0.58-1.20, BC 0-3, corners 5-2). Athletic away markers show high xG totals (avg 2.95) but poor results. Corners lower (avg 8.3). Both teams have volatile matches, but when facing defensive sides, goals dry up. Overlap: both teams average ~3 total xG, but H2H suggests under 2.5 goals. The marker patterns lean toward a tight, low-scoring affair.

Three recent meetings, all low-scoring: 2025-09-13 Athletic 0-1 Alavés (xG 1.08-0.09, Athletic dominated but lost), 2025-07-22 Alavés 1-0 (xG 1.19-1.91, Alavés clinical), 2025-05-11 Athletic 1-0 (xG 1.30-0.78). All matches ended Under 2.5 goals, with an average total xG of just 2.02. Athletic created more xG in all three but only won one. The matches were physical (avg 4.67 yellows) and tight. Both coaches remain, squad turnover moderate. The H2H strongly signals a low-scoring contest again.

First-half stats: Alavés home 1H corners avg 5.06, Athletic away 1H corners avg 3.57 – so corners tend to increase in 2H. 1H goals: Alavés home 1.22, Athletic away 1.68 – Athletic concede earlier away. Shots on target: Alavés home 8.94, Athletic away 10.05 – similar. Yellow cards: Alavés home first-half cards 1.22, Athletic away 1.42 – cards are moderate in first half. Overall, both teams have similar first-half patterns, no extreme trends.

Odds imply a very tight match: Home 2.70, Draw 3.40, Away 2.55. Margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 35.1%, Draw 27.8%, Away 37.1% – market sees away slight favourite. Over 2.5 at 2.00 (implied 50%), Under 2.5 at 1.80 (55.6%). BTTS Yes 1.75 (57.1%), No 2.00 (50%). Corners Over 9.5 at 1.83 (54.6%). Cards Over 4.5 at 1.67 (60%). Value under Under 2.5 given H2H and defensive styles. Over 4.5 cards also has value as both teams foul heavily. No clear value on result markets.