Derby County vs Sheffield United - AI Prediction & Analysis

Derby County sit 8th with 69 points, firmly in the playoff hunt with only one game remaining (assuming 46-game season). Every point is crucial, and a win could secure a top-six finish depending on other results. The Rams have won six straight at home, each victory by at least one goal, showing they know how to get the job done in front of their fans. Sheffield United, on the other hand, are 15th with 57 points – safe, mid-table, nothing to play for. Their season is effectively over, and with a handful of key injuries, motivation could be a real issue. The Blades have lost two on the bounce and have been leaky away from home. All the motivational factors point to a home side desperate for three points vs an away side that might already be on the beach.

Derby have been solid at home, winning six of their last seven at Pride Park, with the only loss coming against Ipswich in a game where they played the final 15 minutes with 10 men. Their 3-1 win over Blackburn and 2-0 win over Stoke were dominant performances, while even in tighter games like the 1-0 against Oxford they controlled proceedings. Sheffield United are in poor form, losing their last two at home to Preston and Blackburn, but their away form is slightly better – they beat Watford and QPR on the road recently. However, their away performances have been inconsistent, with a 1-0 loss at Bristol City seeing them create just 0.38 xG. They also played with 10 men for 67 minutes against Birmingham and still managed a 1-1 draw, so they're scrappy but not dominant. Overall, Sheffield United underperform their xG on the road by 0.29 goals per game, suggesting they're both unlucky and not clinical.

Derby are missing four key players: Callum Elder, Curtis Nelson, Sammie Szmodics, and Rhian Brewster (doubtful). That's a significant chunk of their spine – two midfielders and a defender. The absence of Szmodics is particularly painful; he's the creative hub. Sheffield United are even more depleted, missing eight players including goalkeeper Michael Cooper (doubtful), Oliver Arblaster, and several rotational defenders. Cooper missing is huge – their defense already shaky, and without their first-choice keeper, it's a big blow. Both teams are weakened, but Derby's home record suggests they cope better at home, while Sheffield United's away form might suffer more without their key men.

Both sides play defensive, corner-heavy football. Derby average 54.9% possession at home, while Sheffield United have 49.5% away. This points to a matchup where Derby will dominate possession and territory, but face a disciplined Sheffield United block. Derby's corner-heavy style means they'll likely win multiple corners, but Sheffield United also average 5.21 corners against on the road, so they can concede. The game could be a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances, but Derby's home attacking numbers (1.40 xG per game in markers) suggest they can create enough to score. Sheffield United's away xG against is 1.06, so they're relatively solid but not impregnable. The key clash is Derby's ability to break down a deep defense versus Sheffield United's counter-attacking threat – they do average 1.28 xG away, so they have moments.

Derby's home markers (8 matches vs similar opposition): They've been excellent defensively, conceding only 0.79 xG per game. But their attack is moderate – 1.40 xG per game. In individual matches: vs Oxford (1-0, xG 1.07-0.68), dominant but low-scoring; vs Stoke (2-0, xG 2.39-0.30), a complete performance; vs Sheffield Wednesday (2-1, xG 2.47-0.73), again dominant; vs Blackburn (3-1, xG 1.44-0.90), efficient; vs West Brom (1-1, xG 0.33-1.19), lucky not to lose; vs Portsmouth (1-1, xG 0.79-0.15), dominated but wasteful; vs Leicester (1-3, xG 1.43-1.33), competitive; vs Watford (2-3, xG 0.62-1.47), outplayed. The pattern: Derby are strong at home against most sides, but when they face quality they can be undone. Their big chance creation is consistent (2.9 per game), but they also concede 1.92 big chances. Sheffield United's away markers (4 matches, small sample, 1 with early red): vs Bristol City (0-1 loss, xG 0.38-1.65), completely dominated; vs Birmingham (1-1 draw, xG 1.72-1.52, red card min 23), resilient but lucky; vs Norwich (1-2 loss, xG 0.74-1.86), outplayed; vs QPR (2-0 win, xG 1.02-1.14), slightly lucky. The Blades struggle to create away from home, with only 1.28 xG for, and they concede a lot of shots (11.66 per game). Their big chance creation is low (2.03) while they concede 2.62. The common pattern: Derby at home control games but sometimes lack cutting edge; Sheffield United away are defensively vulnerable but can counter. Given the 1.32 xG for average in home markers for Derby and Shff U's 1.28 xG for away, combined total xG is 2.60, which suggests around 2.5 goals expected.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: back in November 2025, Sheffield United hosted Derby and lost 3-1. The xG was nearly identical (2.15-2.16), but Derby were more clinical. The game saw 4 big chances each, 4-9 corners, and a penalty for Derby. It was a high-scoring, open game. Both coaches are still in charge, squads haven't changed much (0 player changes recorded), so that result has some relevance. It suggests these teams can produce goals when they meet, and Derby have a psychological edge after winning at Bramall Lane.

First half patterns: Derby at home average 1.74 total 1H goals (0.76 for, 0.98 against). Sheffield United away average 2.03 total 1H goals (1.32 for, 0.71 against). Both teams tend to be active in the first half, with a combined average of 1.88 goals from markers, but the 1H xG is lower (0.99 total for Derby home, 0.96 for Sheff U away). This suggests some overperformance in 1H goals. Corner stats: Derby home 1H corners 2.51, Sheff U away 1H corners 0.48 – a huge disparity, meaning Derby will likely dominate corners from the start. Yellow cards: Derby home 1H 0.95, Sheff U away 1H 0.52 – relatively low. Total match cards: Derby home total 4.26 yellows, Sheff U away 4.21 – both around league average. But the referee, Tom Nield, averages 3.57 yellows per match, which is below league average of 4.1. So there's a slight tendency for fewer cards when he officiates. Small market totals: Corners total between both teams from markers: Derby home avg 8.46, Sheff U away avg 9.21, so a combined average of 8.8 corners per game, but the bookmaker line is 10.5. That's high, suggesting value on Under 10.5. For cards, the line is 3.5; with referee avg 3.57 and team averages over 4, there's a chance of Over 3.5 but also a chance of Under given referee's style.

The odds have moved significantly: Over 2.5 shortened from 2.30 to 1.61 (30% move), while Under 2.5 drifted from 1.61 to 2.30. This suggests heavy money on goals. The market now implies a 62.1% probability of Over 2.5. However, marker data gives Derby home over 2.5 in 5/8 (62.5%) and Sheffield United away over 2.5 in 2/4 (50%), with H2H over. Combined, our estimate is around 58% for Over 2.5, which gives a fair odds of 1.72. The current odds of 1.61 represent negative expected value (-0.066). For Under 2.5 at 2.30, implied probability 43.5%; our estimate 42%, normal EV also negative (-0.034). So no value in total goals line. For the result, the 1X2 fair probabilities (with 8.2% margin removed) are: Home 51.0%, Draw 24.6%, Away 24.3%. My estimates: Home 55%, Draw 25%, Away 20%. This gives Home Win fair odds 1.82, which is close to bookmaker 1.81 (negative EV). Draw and Away also negative. The market seems efficient. Where we see value is in corners: Under 10.5 at 1.73 implied 57.8%, but marker averages suggest total corners around 8.8, so probability of Under 10.5 is around 70%, giving EV of +0.176. That's a clear value bet.