Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath - AI Prediction & Analysis

With no league positions available, we rely on upcoming fixtures and rotation risk. Dunfermline have a Scottish Cup tie against Celtic 18 days away – a potential distraction. Arbroath face Dunfermline again in just three days, suggesting neither side has a major motivational edge, but the cup game might cause Dunfermline to rotate key players slightly. Both coaches have continuity, and the H2H record shows Arbroath have dominated recent meetings. Motivation level is neutral but Arbroath may be more focused on league consolidation.

The form sample is tiny and entirely based on H2H matches. Dunfermline's last two: a 0-0 home draw with Arbroath (xG 0.20-0.67, lucky point) and a 2-4 away loss (xG 0.88-1.90, flattered by scoreline). They overperformed xG by +0.92 per match across 4 games – regression is coming. Arbroath's last two: the same matches. Their xG was 1.90 and 0.67, converting to 4 goals and 0. They've been fair performers. The 0-0 was a poor attacking display, but the 4-2 win showed they can punish poor defense.

Both teams have full squads available. Rotation risk is MEDIUM – next match in 3 days for both. Neil Lennon and Colin Hamilton remain in charge, maintaining tactical continuity. No key absences to note, so squad impact is neutral.

Dunfermline at home hold possession (58.7% average) but create little: just 0.38 xG per home marker match. Arbroath away sit deep and counter, averaging 1.04 xG and 8.67 corners – they're dangerous from set pieces and transitions. The clash is possession vs counters, and the data suggests Arbroath's counter-attacking approach works well against Dunfermline's ineffective build-up. Goal expectancy is moderate, but Arbroath's corner dominance could be a key small market.

Home markers (Dunfermline): 2026-05-01 vs Arbroath: 0-0, xG 0.20-0.67, possession 59%, corners 5-11 – no cutting edge. 2025-12-06 vs Arbroath: 1-2, xG 0.75-1.79, shots 7-18, corners 4-4 – again outplayed. The pattern is clear: Dunfermline fail to convert possession into chances, while Arbroath create quality opportunities from fewer touches. Away markers (Arbroath): same matches. Arbroath averaged 1.04 xG away, with strong set-piece threat (11 corners in the 0-0). They're comfortable without the ball. The tactical pattern overlaps: Arbroath will likely dominate xG and corners again, while Dunfermline struggle to score.

Three meetings in the data: 2026-05-01 (0-0), 2026-02-21 (2-4 Dunfermline loss), 2025-12-06 (1-2 loss). Arbroath won two, drew one. In all three, Arbroath had superior xG (avg 1.33 vs 0.55). The 4-2 win was lopsided despite red card at the end. Dunfermline's only goal in the 1-2 was from a low-xG shot. The pattern is consistent: Arbroath are the better side in this matchup.

1H goals are almost non-existent: 0 in 2 of 3 H2H matches, and only 1-1 in the 4-2 game. Under 0.5 1H goals is a strong play but no market line. Corners: Dunfermline home average 4.67, Arbroath away 8.67, total 13.34 – well above 9.5. Cards: average 3.0 in markers, 4.0 in H2H, league average 4.0 – no clear edge. Shots on target low: 1.67 each per marker match.

Bookmaker odds: Home win 2.20, draw 3.40, away win 3.20. Margin-removed probabilities: home 42.8%, draw 27.7%, away 29.4%. Our estimate based on H2H: Arbroath win probability around 40%, draw 30%, home win 30%. This gives value on Arbroath double chance (X2) at 1.61 (fair ~1.43) and away win at 3.20 (fair ~2.50). The market overestimates Dunfermline. Goals: Over 2.5 at 1.90, Under 2.5 at 1.90. H2H saw 2/3 Over, so Over may be slightly undervalued (58% fair vs 50% implied). Corners Over 9.5 at 1.83 is attractive given consistent totals above 10.