Elche vs Deportivo Alavés - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are deep in the relegation fight with only 2 points separating them. Elche sit 14th on 38 points, while Alavés are 18th on 36, occupying the relegation playoff spot. With just 4 matches remaining, every point is critical. Elche have a slightly easier run-in on paper, facing Real Betis away next, but they cannot afford to slip at home against a direct rival. Alavés face Barcelona next, so dropping points here would be devastating given their tough schedule. Both teams have everything to play for, setting the stage for an open, high-intensity match.

Elche come into this on the back of a 3-1 defeat at Celta Vigo, but that was away - at home they've won three of their last four, including impressive results against Atlético Madrid (3-2) and Valencia (1-0). Their xG at home is 1.69 per match, but they've been slightly overperforming (1.9 goals per game). However, they've also been leaky, conceding 1.54 xG per home match. Alavés are in terrible form overall, but their away matches have been goal-fests: a 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad, a 3-2 loss at Valencia, and a stunning 4-3 win at Celta. They've scored in every away match this season, but have also conceded in every single one - no clean sheet away in 15 matches. Their xG away is 1.30 for and 1.60 against, but they've overperformed (1.9 goals scored per game away) suggesting regression could be coming. Still, the trend of both teams scoring is undeniable.

Elche are without key forward Adam Boayar (injured), and have doubts over another striker Rafa Mir and defender John Donald. That weakens their attacking depth, but they still have André Silva up top. Alavés are missing key defender Abdel Abqar and key forward Lucas Boyé. Both absences are significant: Abqar is a regular starter at centre-back, and Boyé is their top scorer. Their absence makes Alavés more vulnerable at the back and less potent up front. However, Alavés have scored in every away game even without Boyé in some matches. The defensive absences on both sides suggest goals are likely.

This is a clash of two defensive-minded teams that have been far from solid. Elche like to dominate possession (57% at home) but are vulnerable on the counter. Alavés are more direct, especially away, with less possession (48.5% away) and higher corner counts (7.92 conceded away). Both teams are card-heavy, with Alavés averaging 3.56 yellow cards away. The tactical battle is not about control but about transition and set pieces. Elche's high-press can force errors, but Alavés have shown they can score on the break. Expect an open game with chances at both ends.

Elche home markers are instructive. In their 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, they had 2.51 xG and 7 big chances, but Rayo had a red card early. In the 1-0 win over Valencia, Elche were dominated in xG (0.58-2.33) and big chances (2-5), but scored against the run of play. The 2-1 win over Mallorca was even, while the 0-0 draw with Osasuna saw Elche create 4 big chances but fail to score. Against Espanyol (2-2), they had 2.00 xG but conceded. The common thread: Elche at home create chances (avg 2.66 big chances) but also concede plenty (2.60). Their matches are not dull - total xG averages 3.08, corners 9.3, and cards 4.5. Alavés away markers are even more explosive. At Real Sociedad (3-3), they had 1.13 xG and created 3 big chances. At Valencia (2-3), they had 1.33 xG but conceded 2.79 xG. At Celta (4-3 win), they had 1.84 xG and 3 big chances in a wild 7-goal match. At Sevilla (1-1), they managed just 0.27 xG but scored. Their away matches average 2.90 total xG, 10.96 corners, and 4.84 yellow cards. They have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches. The pattern is clear: Alavés away games are chaotic, high-scoring affairs with lots of cards and corners.

Only one meeting this season: Alavés won 3-1 at home in October. The xG heavily favored Alavés (2.42-0.38), and Elche played with 10 men from the 79th minute after a red card. Alavés had 25 shots and 14 corners to Elche's 6 shots and 4 corners. That match was one-sided, but it was at Alavés' ground. This time, Elche are at home and both teams are in different form. Still, it shows Alavés can dominate when things click.

First half patterns: Elche at home score 0.53 goals per 1H, concede 0.33. Alavés away score 1.32 goals per 1H (!) and concede 0.72. That is a massive 2.04 total goals in the first half away. This suggests Alavés often start fast and concede early too. 1H corners: Elche home 4.23 total, Alavés away 5.36 – above 4.5 quite often. 1H cards: Elche home 0.95, Alavés away 1.00 – low, but full match cards are high. For small markets, consider 'Alavés over 4 corners' at home? They average 3.04 away corners, but against Elche who concede 4.23 corners at home, they might exceed. Also 'Elche over 5 corners' seems likely given their home average of 5.07. Total corners over 9.5 is strongly supported by both teams' averages (9.3 home, 10.96 away) and the odds movement.

Bookmakers see this as a close match with home slight advantage: Elche win 2.20, draw 3.30, away win 3.30. Margin-removed probabilities: home 42.9%, draw 28.6%, away 28.6%. Community heavily favors Elche (67.9%), but my analysis suggests a more even contest. BTTS Yes at 1.61 is short but well-supported by data. Over 2.5 at 1.91 is the key line – both teams average over 2.5 total goals in their respective marker matches (Elche home 3.08 xG total, Alavés away 2.90 xG total). The fact that Over 2.5 is priced at 1.91 (implied 52.4%) but my estimate is around 65% probability gives positive EV of about 0.24. Corners Over 9.5 at 1.80 also shows value: both teams' averages exceed 9.5, and the odds shortened by 14% indicating sharp money.