FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both sides are stuck in mid-table mediocrity and desperate for points – Cincinnati 23rd, Red Bulls 17th, separated by just three points. Cincinnati have a nightmare run ahead (Inter Miami, Charlotte, Chicago away), so dropping points at home would be disastrous. Red Bulls have a US Open Cup clash midweek but their squad depth is decent and rotation risk is low. Still, motivation is high on both sides – this is a genuine six-pointer. The atmosphere at TQL Stadium should be electric, and neither team can afford to sit back. Expect an open, attacking game.

Cincinnati are chaotic – they've drawn their last three matches 4-4, 3-3 and 1-1, with crazy xG numbers (3.71 vs Chicago, 1.56 vs NYC). They create tons of chances but also leak heavily. At home they average 2.20 xG for and 1.68 against. Red Bulls are equally wild away from home: 4-1 loss to Montreal, 2-2 at Miami, 1-6 at Charlotte. Their away xG against is 2.27, meaning they give up high-quality looks constantly. However, they also create (1.59 xG for away) and have scored in 8 consecutive away matches. Underperformance on xG away suggests positive regression.

Cincinnati are decimated at the back: Miazga, Robinson, and Nwobodo all missing, plus forward Fletcher. That forces Pat Noonan to field a makeshift 3-4-1-2 with limited defensive cover. Red Bulls are missing Harper, Tolkin and Che – three key players – but their depth is better and the core is intact. The absences tilt the defensive advantage toward Red Bulls, but Cincinnati still have attacking talent in Evander and Denkey.

Both teams are labelled 'defensive' in style but the numbers tell a different story. Cincinnati at home generate high xG and concede plenty. Red Bulls away are leaky and create. The possession split (Cincinnati 54%, Red Bulls 58%) suggests a relatively even contest. The clash here is between two high-event teams who both prioritize set pieces and corners. That's a recipe for goals and corner volume.

Cincinnati's home markers: vs Chicago (3-3, 5 big chances, 9 corners) was a wild shootout; vs Toronto (0-1, 0-2 BC) was a tight, low-quality affair; vs Inter Miami (0-4, 2-6 BC) was a blowout. Pattern: inconsistent but capable of both high and low scoring. Red Bulls away markers: 5 matches, all with BTTS, average total xG 3.86, corners 12.83. Even the red-card-affected Charlotte game (1-6) still had 8 corners. The clear pattern: Red Bulls away matches are chaotic, with goals and corners. When these two met earlier this season, it ended 4-2 with 6-2 BC and 8 total corners. The tactical battle is set for an open game.

Two meetings in the last 12 months. April 2026: Red Bulls won 4-2 at home, despite being out-xG'd (2.80-2.00) and out-chanced 6-2. Cincinnati had a red card at 90'. October 2025: Cincinnati won 1-0 away in a tight, low-xG game (1.09-1.03). So H2H is mixed but the most recent meeting was high-scoring. Both coaches are the same, squads have moderate changes. No strong historical pattern but recent form suggests goals.

Small markets: xG totals near 3.9 for both, corners average 10.78 (home) and 12.83 (away). Cards: home avg 6.00, away 3.86 – league avg 4.3. 1H patterns: home 1H goals 2.11, away 1.74. Corners 1H: home 6.56, away 6.47 – both high. Shots on target: ~11.5 each. Penalties: Cincinnati have seen 0.88 per game from penalties in their markers. The key takeaway: corners are consistently high across both sets of markers.

Bookmakers heavily favour goals: Over 2.5 crashed from 2.40 to 1.36, Over 3.5 shortened from 2.25 to 1.83. Home win now at 1.76 (shortened 10%). Draw drifted to 4.20. The market sees a home win with goals. Fair probabilities (margin-removed): Home 53%, Draw 22%, Away 25%. I estimate Home at 50%, Draw 25%, Away 25% – no value on the win. BTTS Yes at 1.40 is slightly above my 75% estimate (fair 1.33, EV +5%). Over 2.5 at 1.36: I estimate 78% (fair 1.28, EV +6%). Corners Over 9.5 at 1.83: I estimate 65% (fair 1.54, EV +19%) – clear value.