Fiorentina vs Genoa - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are in the lower half of Serie A with no realistic chance of relegation or European qualification. Fiorentina are 15th on 37 points, Genoa 14th on 40. With three matches left, the only thing at stake is final position and pride. Fiorentina have the home advantage and a chance to leapfrog their opponents, but their upcoming fixtures against Juventus and Atalanta are daunting. Genoa face Milan and Lecce, also tough. There is no pressing need for a win, which often leads to cautious play. Neither side wants to risk an early defeat. Expect a tentative start with both teams feeling each other out.

Fiorentina’s recent home form is a masterclass in underperformance. They average 1.67 xG at home but only 1.2 goals, creating 2.32 big chances per game yet failing to convert. Their last four home matches: 0-0 vs Sassuolo (xG 1.72-0.87), 1-0 vs Lazio (xG 0.50-1.43, lucky win), 1-1 vs Inter (xG 2.31-1.32, should have won), and 0-0 vs Parma (xG 1.42-0.25). They create but don't finish. Genoa away are even worse: 0.8 goals per game from 1.06 xG. They scraped a 2-1 win at Pisa (xG 1.07-1.63, outplayed) and held Atalanta to 0-0 (xG 1.36-0.54 in Genoa’s favor, lucky). Both teams are in low-scoring grooves, with 4 of Fiorentina’s last 5 home matches going Under 2.5 and 3 of Genoa’s last 4 away staying Under 2.5.

Fiorentina are ravaged up front. Key attackers Colpani, Kean, Fortini, Piccoli, and Dzeko are all out—that’s their entire first-choice forward line. The starting attack of Solomon, Guðmundsson, and Harrison has zero chemistry and low conversion rates. Genoa are missing key defenders Ahanor and Bani, weakening an already leaky backline (away xG conceded 1.01 per game). But the bigger concern is Fiorentina’s inability to score. Without their top scorers, Fiorentina’s expected goals drop significantly. Genoa’s defensive absences might give Fiorentina chances, but their attack is toothless. Expect few quality opportunities.

Both teams play defensive, possession-based football. Fiorentina average 64.4% possession at home, Genoa 57.6% away. The result is a grind: both prioritize ball retention over risk. Fiorentina generate corners (6.24 per game) and fouls (10.88), but their final ball is poor. Genoa are happy to sit deep and counter, averaging 5.00 corners and 13.17 fouls away. The tactical clash screams low scoring: both teams defend in numbers, neither has the cutting edge to break the other down. Set pieces might be the only route to goal, but even those have low conversion rates. Expect a midfield battle with few clear chances.

Fiorentina’s home markers show a consistent pattern: low goals, high corners, moderate cards. Against similar defensive sides, they drew 0-0 vs Sassuolo (xG 1.72-0.87, 7 corners, 3 cards), beat Cremonese 1-0 (xG 2.06-0.73, 7 corners, 3 cards), and lost 1-2 to Cagliari (xG 2.03-1.28, 8 corners, 5 cards). In all three, total xG was under 3.0 and total goals under 3. The marker vs Hellas Verona (1-2) was skewed by an early red card. The consistent theme: Fiorentina dominate possession and corners but struggle to score. Genoa’s away markers: a 0-0 at Cremonese (xG 1.34-1.88, 17 corners!), a 2-1 win at Pisa (xG 1.63-1.07, 10 corners), and a 3-3 thriller at Cagliari (xG 1.42-0.90, 8 corners). The Cremonese match is instructive—Genoa were out-xG’d but held firm. The pattern: Genoa away are resilient, often high corners, but games can be chaotic. However, against Fiorentina’s patient build-up, expect fewer transitions. The overlap: both markers point to under 2.5 goals (60% of Fiorentina’s home markers, 50% of Genoa’s away markers). Corners are consistently high: Fiorentina avg 6.2 at home, Genoa avg 5.0 away, so total corners around 11.2—clearly over 9.5.

The only recent meeting was a 2-2 draw in November 2025 at Genoa. xG was 1.56-1.58, total xG 3.14. That match featured a penalty and 3 big chances each. It was an open game, but both teams have since regressed offensively. The H2H is too small to draw strong conclusions, but it suggests parity. With Fiorentina’s attacking absences, a repeat of that free-flowing encounter is unlikely.

First-half stats: Fiorentina home average 0.55 goals, 1.00 conceded in 1H (total 1.55). Genoa away average 0.89 scored, 1.33 conceded (total 2.22)—but those numbers are inflated by the 3-3 at Cagliari. In 3 of Genoa’s 4 away markers, 1H total goals were 2 or more. But with Fiorentina’s slow starts (1H xG 0.93), a low-scoring first half is likely. Corner totals: Fiorentina home 2H corners avg 4.53 total, but 1H corners 3.64—they start strong. Genoa away 1H corners 2.94. Corner handicap could favor Fiorentina -1.5 at halftime. Cards: Referee Massimi averages 4.71 yellows per match, well above league average 3.7. Fiorentina home markers avg 5.81 cards, Genoa away avg 3.78. With this referee, total cards likely exceed 4.5. The card market has seen movement: Under 4.5 shortened, Over 4.5 drifted. That’s an overreaction—back Over 4.5 at value.

Home win at 2.10 feels short given Fiorentina’s attack. Fair probability for home win is around 40%, so no value. Draw at 3.40 (28% implied) is plausible given both teams’ defensive nature. Under 2.5 at 1.73 implies 57.8% probability—my estimate is 65%, giving EV of +0.12. That’s clear value. BTTS No at 1.91 (52.4% implied) vs my 60% probability: EV +0.14. Corners Over 9.5 at 2.10 (47.6% implied) vs my 55% probability: EV +0.15. Cards Over 4.5 at 2.10 (47.6% implied) vs my 58% probability: EV +0.22. The biggest value is on cards.