Fiorentina vs Sassuolo - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are firmly mid-table with little at stake. Fiorentina sit 15th with 36 points, nine points clear of the relegation zone and nine behind Sassuolo in 10th. With five matches left, neither side has realistic European ambitions nor relegation fears. Fiorentina will want to reward their home fans after a disappointing season, while Sassuolo are comfortable and may lack urgency. The upcoming fixtures are balanced, with both facing tough opponents, but no rotation is expected. Fiorentina have slightly more to prove, but the motivation gap is narrow—both teams are playing for pride rather than pressure.

Fiorentina's recent form is mixed but slightly positive: W3 D2 L2 in their last seven. They've been solid at home recently, beating Lazio 1-0 and Crystal Palace 2-1, and drawing 1-1 with Inter. However, their home xG (1.69) underperforms actual goals (1.3), suggesting finishing issues rather than chance creation. Sassuolo have been on a good run: W4 D1 L2, including a 2-1 win over Como and a 1-1 draw at Juventus. They overperform xG overall (1.04 xG vs 1.4 goals), particularly at home, but away xG is dead even. Sassuolo have scored in 14 of their last 20 matches and have a BTTS streak of 5 on the road—unsustainable. Both teams are in decent form, but Fiorentina's underperformance at home hints at potential regression.

Both teams are missing key attackers. Fiorentina's attack is weakened without Moise Kean (doubtful) and Edin Džeko (out), while midfield creator Robin Gosens is also doubtful. Defensively, Marin Pongračić is doubtful, but the core of De Gea, Dodô, and Comuzzo remains. Sassuolo are without their star winger Domenico Berardi (out), which removes a major creative threat. Midfield linchpin Daniel Boloca is doubtful, and defenders Pieragnolo and Romagna are out. The absences tilt the match toward lower scoring, as both sides lose their primary goal threats. The starting XIs show Fiorentina's Harrison and Piccoli leading the line, while Sassuolo rely on Pinamonti and Laurienté.

Both teams are described as defensive, corner-heavy, and card-heavy, setting up a tactical battle. Fiorentina average 52.8% possession at home, while Sassuolo average only 42.9% away, suggesting Fiorentina will dominate the ball. However, Sassuolo are comfortable in a low block and have shown they can counter effectively. Set pieces could be decisive: Fiorentina's home marker matches average 5.98 corners for and 3.92 against, while Sassuolo's away matches average 4.14 for and 4.58 against. The total corners average (9.9 for Fiorentina home, 8.7 for Sassuolo away) clusters around 9-10. Cards are also likely: Fiorentina average 3.38 yellows at home, Sassuolo 2.67 away, and the referee averages 4.5 per match. This match screams cards and corners but not necessarily goals.

Fiorentina's home markers (5 matches) show a pattern of high xG and goals, but one match (5-1 vs Udinese) had an early red card, inflating the numbers. Without that, the underlying totals are more modest: 2-1 vs Crystal Palace (2.84 combined xG), 1-0 vs Lazio (1.93 xG, but 0.50 for Fiorentina), 2-2 vs Torino (2.49 xG), and 2-2 vs Bologna (4.27 xG but included two penalties and a red). The average corners is 9.9, with 3 of 5 matches over 10. Yellow cards average 6.76, with 4 of 5 matches over 5.5. Shots on target are consistent at 9.4 per match. Fiorentina create chances but rely on penalties (0.60 per match) and are vulnerable to counters. Sassuolo's away markers (12 matches) show a different story: they concede more xG (1.41) than they create (1.12), but they score frequently. Their average total corners are 8.72, with 8 of 12 matches under 9.5, indicating a tendency for low corner counts. Yellow cards average 4.26, well below the home rate. Big chances against average 2.47, suggesting they give up high-quality opportunities. The tactical overlap: both teams defend but Fiorentina's home aggression and Sassuolo's road frailty often lead to corners and cards. However, missing attackers could suppress goals.

The only recent H2H was on 2025-12-06, where Sassuolo won 3-1 at home. Fiorentina had 1.21 xG (0.45 NPxG, penalty-inflated) against 1.00 xG for Sassuolo. Sassuolo dominated corners 7-1 and shots 13-9. That match also featured a penalty for Fiorentina and a red card (data error). It shows Sassuolo can outperform Fiorentina in open play. With both teams now missing key attackers, a repeat of such a high-scoring game is less likely. The small sample (1 match) limits reliability, but the pattern favors Sassuolo in terms of style matchup.

Small markets: Fiorentina home corners average 5.98 (total 9.9), Sassuolo away 4.14 (8.72). Combined average 9.3, but Sassuolo's away corners are under 9.5 in 67% of matches. Yellow cards: Fiorentina home 3.38 (total 6.76), Sassuolo away 2.67 (4.26), combined 5.51. Referee Marinelli averages 4.5 yellows per match, above the league average of 3.7. First half totals: Fiorentina home 1H goals 0.74 for, 0.92 against (total 1.66); Sassuolo away 1H goals 0.59 for, 0.65 against (1.24). Fiorentina's first half are particularly high-scoring. 1H corners: Fiorentina home 3.66, Sassuolo away 2.08; total 5.53, suggesting first half corners could also be substantial.

The bookmaker fair probabilities (margin removed) are Home 49.5%, Draw 28.7%, Away 21.8%. Home win odds drifted from 1.70 to 1.91, indicating money for the visitors or draw. Away win odds shortened from 4.75 to 4.33, draw from 3.70 to 3.30. Corners Under 9.5 shortened from 2.00 to 1.67, Over 9.5 drifted from 1.73 to 2.10, suggesting smart money on under. Over 2.5 at 1.91 and Under 2.5 at 1.91 are balanced. BTTS Yes at 1.70 is short given missing attackers; community votes are 87.8% yes. I estimate Under 2.5 has a 55% chance (fair odds 1.82), offering slight value at 1.91 (EV +5%). BTTS No at 2.05 with an estimated 45% chance (fair 2.22) offers slight value as well (EV +2%). Corners Under 9.5 at 1.67 with 60% chance (fair 1.67) is fair, but the odds movement suggests value. Yellow cards Over 3.5 at 1.61 is likely value given averages and referee's stats.