Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are separated by just one point in mid-table, with Fortuna Sittard sitting 13th (36 pts) and PEC Zwolle 12th (37 pts). With only 6 matches remaining, every point is crucial to avoid being dragged into the relegation scrap. Fortuna have lost their last two home games and need a result to arrest the slide. PEC Zwolle, on the other hand, have a tough upcoming fixture against Feyenoord at home, so they'll see this as a winnable game away from home. Both sides have little to play for beyond securing mid-table safety, but the tight table means motivation is high. Fortuna have a poor home record (W5 D3 L8) while Zwolle have just 2 away wins all season. Neither can afford to lose this direct rival.

Fortuna Sittard come into this on the back of a 1-2 home loss to Feyenoord, a game they played with 10 men for the final 10 minutes. Prior to that, they lost 2-1 away to Heerenveen despite having 2.41 xG. At home this season, they average 1.58 xG but have only scored 1.5 goals per game, suggesting slight underperformance. PEC Zwolle were hammered 6-1 away at PSV, then beat Heracles 1-0 at home despite only 0.62 xG. Away from home, Zwolle average 1.05 xG but concede 2.09 xG, indicating defensive frailty. However, they have been competitive in recent away draws against Sparta and Utrecht. Both teams are inconsistent, but Fortuna's home form is marginally better.

Fortuna Sittard are without four key players: midfielder Justin Lonwijk, defenders Neraysho Kasanwirjo and Shawn Adewoye, and midfielder Philip Brittijn. All are injured. This weakens an already thin squad, especially in midfield and defense. PEC Zwolle miss key forward Shola Shoretire and midfielder Younes Namli, plus defender Damian van der Haar is doubtful. The absences reduce both teams' attacking potential significantly. Neither side has great depth, so the starting XI will be weakened. This is a strong pointer towards fewer goals.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy. Fortuna average 50.5% possession at home, while Zwolle average 45.5% away. Neither side dominates possession. With both prioritizing defensive organization, the game could be tight in the middle third. However, both teams also concede a lot of shots: Fortuna allow 11.78 shots per home match, Zwolle allow 19.52 shots away. That suggests chances will come, but finishing quality may be lacking. Set pieces could be crucial: Fortuna average 5.44 corners for and 5.22 against at home; Zwolle average 3.99 for and 6.04 away. The corner count could be high. But with key attackers missing, goals might be at a premium.

Fortuna's home marker matches (4 games) show an average total xG of 3.42, with 10.66 corners and 3.34 yellow cards. In the 1-1 draw with NAC Breda, the game was even but low on big chances (2-1). Against Telstar, they lost 1-4 despite 2.70 xG, but conceded 7 big chances. The 2-1 win over Excelsior included a penalty. The 1-1 draw with Heracles had very high corners (11-3). The pattern: Fortuna create chances but are vulnerable on the counter, especially against teams that press. PEC Zwolle's away markers (10 games) are more decisive: they are outshot heavily (9.75 shots for vs 19.52 against) and out-xG'd (1.08 for vs 2.09 against). They have lost 6-1 at PSV and Go Ahead Eagles, but also drawn 1-1 at Sparta and Utrecht. Their defensive record is poor, but they can frustrate weaker teams. However, they have failed to score in only 1 of those 10 games (the 5-0 loss to PSV). The takeaway: both teams are leaky at the back, but the absence of key attackers may reduce the goal count. The overlapping pattern is low-scoring draws when both are cautious, but high-scoring when one side is overwhelmed. Given the importance of the match, expect a tight affair.

Only one head-to-head meeting in the last 12 months: on December 13, 2025, PEC Zwolle won 1-0 at home. Fortuna had 0.92 xG to Zwolle's 1.60, but Fortuna dominated corners 12-2. The game had no big chances for Fortuna, while Zwolle had 2. That result suggests a close match, but with Zwolle taking their chance. Both coaches and most players are the same, so that result is relevant. It also had 14 total corners and 6 yellow cards. The pattern is a tight, low-scoring game with set-piece potential.

Focusing on small markets: Corner averages in markers: Fortuna home 10.66, Zwolle away 10.03, H2H had 14. Bookmaker line is 9.5 - Over at 1.73. Given both teams' corner tendencies and the H2H, Over 9.5 looks likely. Yellow cards: Fortuna home average 1.67 for and against (total 3.34), Zwolle away total 2.30, H2H had 6. Referee Richard Martens averages 3.48 yellows, slightly above league average 3.4. Expect around 3-4 yellows. First half goals: Fortuna home 1H goals avg 0.67-0.56, total 1.23; Zwolle away 1H goals 0.43-1.27, total 1.70. So first halves tend to be low scoring? Actually, total 1.23 and 1.70 indicate moderate first-half action. Under 1.5 in the first half could be a play, but lines not given. Shots on target: Fortuna home 3.94-6.22, Zwolle away 3.84-7.56. Both teams allow many shots. Over 9.5 shots on target might be high, but not available.

The odds have moved significantly. Under 2.5 shortened from 2.88 to 2.35 (18% move), while Over 2.5 drifted from 1.40 to 1.57. This suggests sharp money on the Under. BTTS No also shortened from 2.75 to 2.50 (9% move), while BTTS Yes drifted. The market is pricing in a low-scoring game, likely due to the key absences. The fair probabilities (margin removed) give Under 2.5 implied probability of about 42.6% (1/2.35) but with margin it's around 40%. My estimate is 55% for Under 2.5, giving fair odds 1.82. The current price of 2.35 represents clear value (EV = +0.2925). Similarly, BTTS No at 2.50 has value if my estimate is 50% (EV = +0.25). However, the narrative of low goals fits better with Under 2.5.