Fulham vs Bournemouth - AI Prediction & Analysis

Bournemouth sit 6th with 52 points, pushing hard for European qualification. Every point matters with Manchester City and Nottingham Forest looming. Fulham are comfortable in 11th, 48 points, with nothing but pride to play for. The difference in urgency is clear: Bournemouth need results, Fulham don't. Expect the visitors to come out with purpose, especially after their impressive away form. Fulham will want to spoil the party at home, but their motivation is a tier below. Bournemouth have the edge.

Fulham's recent form is patchy: 3 losses in their last 5 overall, including a heavy 3-0 defeat at Arsenal where they were outclassed (xG 2.97-0.43). At home they've been better, winning 3 of their last 5, but the wins were narrow – 1-0 vs Aston Villa and 2-1 vs Spurs. The xG tells a story: Fulham underperform overall (avg xG 1.4 vs 0.9 goals), but at home they're fair (1.46 xG vs 1.5 goals). Bournemouth are flying away: 3 wins in their last 5 on the road, including stunning victories at Arsenal (2-1) and Newcastle (2-1). Their xG away is massive (2.02 avg), and they convert it (2.1 goals per game). The 9-10 thriller at Newcastle in the cup is an outlier, but even without it, they average 2.5 goals per away game. Regression risk is low – they're performing at xG level.

Fulham are missing key midfielders Alex Iwobi (injured) and doubts over Kevin, Berge, and Smith Rowe. That's their creative engine – without them, they may struggle to build play. Bournemouth have defensive absenteeism: key centre-back Araujo is missing, and Soler, Kluivert, Cook are doubtful. Their backline could be vulnerable. Both sides have important holes: Fulham's midfield vs Bournemouth's defence. This could lead to a more open game than expected from two 'defensive' teams.

On paper, both teams are defensive and corner-heavy. But the numbers tell a different story. Fulham at home average 53% possession and generate 1.64 xG per game, but concede 1.49 – not exactly a fortress. Bournemouth away absorb pressure (43% possession) but create 2.29 xG themselves. This is a clash of a mid-block home side against a counter-attacking away side that loves space. Bournemouth's away markers show huge totals: 4.49 total xG per game. That screams goals. Fulham's home markers also produce 3.13 total xG. Don't let the 'defensive' tag fool you: this match has high-scoring potential.

Fulham's home markers (4 matches): vs Everton (1-2, total xG 3.85, BC 7), Brighton (2-1, xG 2.64, BC 6), Chelsea (2-1, xG 3.59, BC 4, red card), Sunderland (1-0, xG 2.33, BC 4). Excluding the Chelsea anomaly (red card), average total xG is 2.94. Goals scored 1.33 per game, but xG suggests more could come. Bournemouth's away markers (7 matches): Newcastle (2-1, xG 4.63, BC 6), Everton (2-1, xG 4.28, BC 5), Brighton (1-1, xG 2.31, BC 2), Newcastle (9-10, xG 5.72, BC 17), Chelsea (2-2, xG 5.45, BC 8), Brentford (1-4, xG 6.38, BC 9), Sunderland (2-3, xG 2.98, BC 4). Even without the crazy 19-goal game, average total xG is 4.34, and average goals per game is 5.0. The pattern is undeniable: Bournemouth away games are open, high-event affairs. Both teams create and concede big chances. This matchup screams goals.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: Bournemouth won 3-1 at home in October 2025. Fulham had 0.88 xG, Bournemouth 1.12. It was a fairly even game but Bournemouth edged it. That result fits the narrative: Bournemouth can score and Fulham can concede. Not enough data to draw strong conclusions, but the trend supports an away win with goals.

First half patterns: Fulham home 1H total xG 1.62, corners 6.43, shots 13.56. Bournemouth away 1H total xG 2.32, corners 4.40, shots 13.51. Both start fast. 1H goals: Fulham home avg 0.78 total, Bournemouth away 1.54. There's potential for a 1H goal or two. Corners: Fulham home avg 11.88 total, Bournemouth away 11.59. Over 10.5 corners looks solid given consistency. Cards: Fulham home avg 4.68 total cards, Bournemouth away 5.14. Referee Andy Madley averages 3.11 yellows per match, well below league average 4.0. Under 4.5 match cards could be value.

Odds have moved sharply: Over 2.5 goals has been pounded from 2.38 to 1.57 – a massive 34% shortening. The market expects goals. Under 2.5 has drifted to 2.38. Winner market: Bournemouth is now favorite at 2.30 (was 2.50), while Fulham drifted to 2.63. Fair probabilities from margin-removed odds: Home 34%, Draw 27%, Away 39%. Based on form and motivation, I estimate Bournemouth's chance closer to 45% – giving slight EV on Away Win at 2.30 (EV = 0.45*2.30-1 = +3.5%). But the strongest signal is Over 2.5: my probability estimate is 75%, giving fair odds 1.33. Bookie offers 1.57 – clear value (EV = 0.75*1.57-1 = +17.8%). BTTS Yes also looks good at 1.50, with estimated 70% likelihood (EV = +5%).