HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Supra Du Quebec - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are mid-table, with HFX in 5th on 16 points and Supra in 7th on 11. This is a direct rival for a playoff spot – Supra need a win to close the gap, while HFX want to solidify their position. Season is 34% complete, every point matters. No cup distractions. Full focus on the league. The gap is only 5 points, so motivation is high on both sides. Home advantage for HFX, but they've been inconsistent. Supra have a leaky defence (no clean sheets in 12 games) but can score. This is a ‘six-pointer’ in a tight league.

HFX have been erratic. Last 7: W2 D2 L3. At home, they thumped Pacific 5-2 (xG 2.37-2.73, but NPxG 1.61-2.73 shows luck) and beat Vancouver 1-0 despite conceding 15 shots. But they also lost 1-3 to Ottawa at home. Overperforming xG at home (avg xG 1.42, goals 2.38) signals regression. Supra are in poor form: last 7: W2 D1 L4, including a 1-5 home loss to Vancouver. Away, they lost 0-1 to Forge (xG 0.68-1.29) and 3-5 to Ottawa (big chances 1-8). They underperform xG away (avg xG 1.6, goals 1.33). Both teams create chances but are defensively frail.

Both teams have full squads available. No injuries or suspensions reported. Key players for HFX include their top scorers, but the lineup is unknown. Coach Vanni Sartini has a full selection. For Supra, coach Nicholas Razzaghi also has all 14 key players available. Rotation risk is low given the importance of the match. This means both sides can field their strongest XI, increasing the likelihood of goals as attackers are at full strength while defences are not notably strong.

Both teams are labelled ‘defensive, corner-heavy’, but the data tells a different story. HFX at home average 1.75 xG for but 2.04 against – an open style. Supra away average 1.5 xG for and 1.89 against. Possession is balanced (47.7% vs 49.6%). Neither sits deep consistently. This should be an open, transitional game. Set pieces could be key: HFX average 5.56 corners for, Supra concede 7.33 away. Goals from corners are likely. The ‘corner-heavy’ tag means total corners could exceed 10.5 as in markers.

Analyzing HFX’s 4 home markers: (1) vs Pacific 5-2: high xG total 5.1, 14 corners, 2 red cards (one each), 2 yellows. Open, chaotic. (2) vs Vancouver 1-0: 9 corners, 5 yellows, 1 red. Low xG but many cards. (3) vs Inter Toronto 1-1: total xG 2.57, 10 corners, 4 yellows. Even. (4) vs Pacific 2-2: total xG 3.0, 9 corners, 3 yellows, 1 red. Average corners 10.5, yellows 3.5. Pattern: high corner counts, moderate yellows, and goals (3.25 avg total goals). For Supra’s 4 away markers (relaxed filters): (1) vs Ottawa 3-5: 10 corners, 0 yellows, 9 big chances total. Wild. (2) vs Vancouver 1-1: 11 corners, 4 yellows, total xG 3.85. (3) vs Forge 0-1: 10 corners, 2 yellows, total xG 1.97. (4) vs Pacific 3-2: 11 corners, 5 yellows, 1 red, total xG 4.57. Average corners 10.5, yellows 2.75, but shots on target volatile. Pattern: consistent corners, plenty of goals (2.75 avg total goals). Overlap: both produce 10+ corners and 3+ total goals. This screams Over 2.5 and Over 10.5 corners.

Only one H2H in the last 12 months: 2026-04-24, Supra won 2-1 away. HFX had 1.43 xG vs 1.14, but lost. Corners 5-10 favouring Supra. Fouls 11-10, yellows 2-3. Both coaches still in charge, so tactics may be similar. Total xG 2.57, which is in line with marker averages. That match had 2 goals, but the data suggests more goals are likely given current form.

Small markets: Home total xG 3.79 vs away total xG 3.39. Corners: Home 10.89 vs away 10.44 – both high. Yellow cards: Home 3.45 vs away 3.56 – slightly below league baseline 4.8. Shots on target: Home 7.83 vs away 11.22 – away create more. 1H patterns: Home 1H total goals 1.89, away 1.89. 1H corners: Home 5.95, away 3.23. HFX start fast. BTTS in 4 of last 5 home games for HFX, and 3 of 4 away for Supra. Over 2.5 in 5 of last 6 home for HFX.

No odds data available. Without odds, we cannot calculate EV. But based on data, Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes have strong backing. Expected probability for Over 2.5 around 65% given marker averages and streaks. For corners Over 10.5 also above 55%.