Ilves vs Turun Palloseura - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams have clear incentives. Ilves sit 9th with 9 points from 10 matches, just 2 points above the relegation zone. Every home point is vital to climb the table, especially against a direct rival. Turun Palloseura occupy 5th with 15 points from 9 games, in the hunt for European spots. They've lost three away matches in a row and need to stop that slide. With the season only 26% complete, neither side can afford to drop points carelessly. The calendar is light—no midweek fixtures—so full focus is on this league encounter. Ilves have the extra motivation of defending their home record (scored in 15 straight home matches). Turun Palloseura, meanwhile, have the quality to hurt any opponent but have shown mental fragility on the road. The motivational edge slightly favors Ilves due to home advantage and greater urgency, but both will be fully committed.

Ilves overall: W-L-W-D-L in last five. Their home form is deceptive: three wins and two losses, but the wins were narrow (1-0 vs AC Oulu, 2-0 vs Gnistan with a red card, and 1-0 vs TPS). The losses came against stronger sides (Inter Turku 1-3 and KuPS 1-3). Their xG at home (avg 1.48 per match) suggests they create chances but not abundantly. They've been overperforming slightly in goals (actual 1.63 vs xG 1.48), so some regression may be due. Turun Palloseura away form is poor: three consecutive losses (to Ilves, Inter Turku, AC Oulu) followed by two draws. They've scored in 7 of 9 away matches but conceded in all 9. Their xG away (avg 1.39) is decent, but they've conceded 1.29 actual goals per away game, suggesting a leaky defense. The last H2H was a 1-0 Ilves win where TPS managed only 0.72 xG and 1 shot on target. That result aligns with the trend: Ilves grind out results at home, while TPS struggle to impose themselves on the road.

Both teams have full squads available—no injuries or suspensions. Ilves have 17 key players all fit, Turun Palloseura have all 26 key players and 20 rotation players available. With no confirmed lineups, we assume strongest XIs. Ilves coach Joni Lehtonen has a settled side; the only potential rotation is in wide areas. TPS coach Ivan Piñol Zoroa prefers a defensive approach away from home, often playing with two holding midfielders. The absence of any unavailability means tactical plans won't be disrupted. This gives confidence that the patterns seen in marker matches (defensive setups, low corner counts) will hold.

Both teams are classified as defensive and corner-heavy. Ilves average 49.4% possession at home – they don't dominate the ball but are compact. Their corner count at home (2.72 for, 3.61 against) is low, indicating they win few corners and concede few. Turun Palloseura away have 46.4% possession and concede more corners (3.78 against) but also win a decent number (4.33 for). The match type is a tactical battle: two disciplined defenses trying to avoid mistakes. However, set pieces could be decisive, especially with Ilves' strength in corners. Expect a cautious opening, few clear chances, and a focus on avoiding defeat. The low tempo and defensive priorities suggest a low-scoring game. Both teams have been involved in unders recently: Ilves' home matches have averaged 2.2 total goals (excluding the 4-goal games against top sides), while TPS away matches have averaged 2.6. With neither side likely to take risks, Under 2.5 looks appealing.

Ilves home markers (4 matches): 1-0 vs Turun Palloseura (xG 1.60-0.72, Ilves dominant), 1-3 vs Inter Turku (xG 0.31-1.58, Ilves outplayed), 1-0 vs AC Oulu (xG 1.21-0.99, tight), 1-3 vs Kuopion Palloseura (xG 1.37-1.35, even but two penalties). The pattern: Ilves struggle to create high-quality chances against strong opponents, but can suffocate weaker ones. They rely on set pieces and individual moments. Corner totals were consistently under 10 every time (range 5-7). Yellow cards averaged 2.5 per match, below league average. Thematically, Ilves home games are low-scoring and low-event. Turun Palloseura away markers (3 detailed): 0-1 vs Ilves (xG 0.72-1.60, poor), 2-2 vs FF Jaro (xG 1.60-1.55, open game), 1-1 vs IFK Mariehamn (xG 1.10-0.66, even but dominated corners 10-0). TPS away have one outlier (11 corners) but generally create few corners (under 10 in 2 of 3). Their yellow card count is higher (avg 3.3 per match). Overall, marker matches show both teams tend to be involved in games with under 9.5 corners and under 3.5 goals. The tactical pattern overlap: two defensive, corner-heavy teams result in low totals.

Only one match in the last 12 months: 2026-05-27 Ilves 1-0 Turun Palloseura at Tammela. Ilves dominated: 1.60-0.72 xG, 17-8 shots, 6-1 on target, 57% possession. The only goal came from open play. Corners were low (4-1, total 5). Yellow cards 2-1. This single data point reinforces the narrative: Ilves are strong at home against TPS, and the game is tight. Both coaches are the same, so tactical continuity is high.

1H patterns: Ilves home markers average 0.83 1H goals for and 2.00 against (anomalous due to two high-scoring games – actually 1H total 2.83 may be inflated; actual 1H totals in markers: 1,3,0,2 -> avg 1.5). TPS away 1H: 0.44 for, 1.17 against, total 1.61 – low. First halves tend to be cautious. Corners: Ilves home avg 2.72 for, 3.61 against; TPS away avg 4.33 for, 3.78 against. Combined total 6.33, well under 9.5. Yellow cards: combined avg 3.44, league baseline 3.5 – close. Under 9.5 corners has strong support from markers (Ilves home max 7, TPS away 5 and 5 in the H2H). Under 2.5 goals also aligns with both teams' defensive styles.

Bookmaker odds imply home win 49.1% (fair odds 2.04), draw 26.7%, away 24.2%. Ilves win at 1.85 is slightly short of my estimate (45% win chance suggests fair odds 2.22, so negative EV). Over 2.5 at 1.73 implies 57.8% probability; Under 2.5 at 2.08 implies 48.1%. My probability for Under 2.5 is 55%, giving fair odds 1.82, value EV +0.144. Under 2.5 has drifted from 1.70 to 2.08, a 22% increase, suggesting over 2.5 has been heavily backed; this creates an opportunity on the under. BTTS Yes at 1.67 implies 59.9%; my estimate is 55%, negative EV. BTTS No at 2.10 implies 47.6%; my estimate 45% – also negative. Corners: Over 9.5 at 1.73 (57.8% prob), Under at 2.00 (50% prob). My estimate for Under 9.5 is 70%, so huge value (EV +0.4).