Ipswich Town vs Queens Park Rangers - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is a dead rubber for both teams in different ways. Ipswich are 2nd with 81 points, already assured of promotion (likely automatic). A final home game might see them wanting to put on a show for fans, but intensity could dip. QPR are 14th, 14 points clear of relegation and 10 off playoffs – truly mid-table nothingness. With six key players out, their motivation to travel and fight is questionable. However, Ipswich's defensive absences (Ashley Young, Leif Davis) could offset any lack of urgency from QPR. The edge is clearly with Ipswich, but the motivational gap isn't as wide as the table suggests.

Ipswich are unbeaten in 8 home league matches (W4 D4), but the draws against Middlesbrough and Millwall show they can be held. Their home xG numbers are solid: 1.69 for, 0.56 against, but the recent 2-2 vs Middlesbrough saw 2.69 xG conceded – a red flag with key defenders out. QPR have lost 3 of their last 5 away, including a 5-0 thrashing at Southampton. Their away xG is pitiful (0.43 for, 1.51 against), but note that in 2 of their 3 away markers they created under 0.3 xG. They struggle to create chances on the road, but Ipswich's missing defenders could gift them opportunities.

Ipswich are without both first-choice full-backs: Ashley Young and Leif Davis. That's a massive blow to their defensive structure – both are key in McKenna's system. Conor Townsend is also out, so they're forced into makeshift full-back positions. QPR have an injury crisis: 6 key players out, including creative hub Karamoko Dembélé and top scorer Richard Kone. Their attacking threat is severely depleted. This is a battle of attrition – both sides weakened, but Ipswich's depth is superior.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy. Ipswich average 56% possession at home, QPR 48% away. Expect Ipswich to dominate the ball, but their lack of natural width (missing fullbacks) might make them predictable. QPR will sit deep, but they've conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches. The corner battle is key: Ipswich average 6.5 home corners, QPR concede 6.33 away. This screams corners over 10.5.

Ipswich home markers show a clear pattern: they dominate xG but rarely blow teams away. vs Birmingham (2-1): 1.89-0.46 xG, 6 corners, 2 yellows. vs Hull (1-0): 1.47-0.28 xG, 6 corners, 6 yellows. vs Swansea (3-0): 1.18-0.42 xG, 4 corners. vs Preston (1-1): 2.79-1.19 xG, 9 corners, 3 yellows. vs Bristol City (2-0): 1.08-0.71 xG, 9 corners, 7 yellows. The common thread: Ipswich create big chances (3.37 avg) but also allow opponents chances (1.20 big chances against). The match totals are moderate: 3,1,3,2,2 goals. QPR away markers paint a grim picture: at Millwall (0-2): 0.13-1.08 xG, 0 big chances for, 10 corners. At Southampton (0-5): 0.26-1.56 xG, 0 big chances, 3 corners. At Middlesbrough (1-3): 1.30-2.29 xG, 1 big chance, 4 corners. QPR rarely create from open play away – their only goal in these 3 matches came from a penalty. The pattern for Ipswich is controlled dominance but with defensive lapses; for QPR it's defensive fragility with zero attacking threat. Where they overlap: expect Ipswich to have the better chances, but both teams could score given Ipswich's defensive injuries.

The only recent H2H was in November 2025, won 4-1 by Ipswich away. That match was a statistical anomaly: QPR had 1.56 xG to Ipswich's 1.03, yet Ipswich scored 4. Big chances were 3-2 to Ipswich. QPR had 4 yellow cards, Ipswich 0. Ipswich had 62% possession but only 2 corners. That result was influenced by QPR's indiscipline and Ipswich's efficiency. With both sides now weakened, that match has limited predictive value but confirms goals are possible.

First half patterns: Ipswich home 1H goals average 1.74 (1.07 for, 0.67 against). QPR away 1H goals average 2.00 (0.00 for, 2.00 against) – they consistently concede early. 1H corners: Ipswich home 5.87, QPR away 8.11. 1H cards: Ipswich home 1.00, QPR away 1.89. This suggests early goals and corners from Ipswich. Individual totals: Ipswich home corners 6.50, QPR away corners 6.33. Total corners average ~10.9. Cards: Ipswich home total yellows 3.56, QPR away total 2.33. Combined around 5.9, but referee Gavin Ward averages 3.41 per match, well below league average 4.1. Cards market likely Under 3.5. Shots on target: Ipswich home 8.13, QPR away 8.22. Decent action. Streaks: Ipswich have scored in 13 consecutive home matches (14/15). QPR have failed to score in 2 of last 3 away, but overall scored in 8/15 away. This supports BTTS possibility.

Odds movement is striking: Over 2.5 shortened from 2.50 to 1.53, Under 2.5 drifted from 1.53 to 2.50. That's a massive shift, reflecting market confidence in goals. Home win 1.27 is short but fair given the gap. BTTS Yes at 1.83, No at 1.83, implying 50% probability. My estimate: BTTS Yes around 55%, slight value. Corners Over 10.5 at 1.91, given averages around 11, that's fair value. Cards Under 3.5 at 1.80, but referee below average, could be value. Margin-removed fair odds: Home Win 72.7% (1.38). I see home win probability ~70%, so no value.