Lille vs Le Havre - AI Prediction & Analysis

Lille sit 4th, six points off the top three, but with only seven games left, every point matters in the race for Champions League. Next week’s trip to Monaco is a tougher assignment, so today’s home game is a must-win to keep pressure on the leaders. Le Havre, 14th and only five points above the relegation zone, are desperate for points. But they face a brutal fixture run: Marseille at home then Lorient away. Their primary aim is damage limitation and hoping for a draw. The motivation gap is clear: Lille need to attack, Le Havre will park the bus. This often leads to tight, low-scoring games.

Lille’s recent form is solid but unspectacular. They’ve won three of their last five league games, but two of those were narrow 1-0 victories (vs Nantes and Paris FC away). At home, they’ve been tough to break down: three clean sheets in their last five home matches, but also two goalless draws (vs Nice, Lorient) and a 1-1 with Stade Brestois. Their xG at home (1.23) is higher than goals scored (0.8), indicating underperformance that could regress. Le Havre are on a staggering run of five consecutive draws (overall) and haven’t won in seven. Away from home, they’ve lost four of their last five, scoring just once in those four defeats (0.5 goals per game). However, their xG away (1.22) suggests they create chances but can’t finish – a regression risk that might see them finally score. Still, their defensive organization is poor: they’ve conceded at least two goals in four of their last five away trips.

Lille are missing two key midfielders: Ivan Cavaleiro and Nabil Bentaleb, plus rotation winger Zhegrova. This depletes their creative depth and could slow their build-up against a packed defense. But their squad remains strong, with André and Bouaddi capable of controlling midfield. Le Havre are hit harder: four key defenders (Sangante, Operi, Ballo-Touré, Touré) are out or doubtful. Their backline, already shaky, will be patched up. That’s a big problem against a Lille side that dominates possession and creates from wide areas. Without a settled defense, Le Havre will likely concede – but maybe not too many, as they’ll sit deep.

This is a classic strong-home-favorite vs. weak-away-defense match. Lille average 61.5% possession and love to build patiently. They’ll face a deep block from Le Havre, who average 42.6% possession and defend in numbers. Le Havre are also corner-heavy, but they’ll struggle to hold the ball. The clash of styles usually produces low goal totals: Lille’s home games against defensive sides often end 1-0 or 2-0. Le Havre’s away markers show they concede plenty of corners and shots but keep scores relatively low (0-1, 0-1, 0-3). Expect Lille to dominate territory but struggle to convert dominance into a rout.

Lille’s home markers: vs Nice (0-0, xG 0.43-0.19, low quality), vs Nantes (1-0, xG 0.63-0.19, tight), vs Paris FC (4-2, but two penalties inflated xG; NPxG 2.51-1.52, more open), vs Angers (1-0, xG 2.04-0.37, dominant but only one goal). Three of four ended Under 2.5, with total xG averaging 2.07. Le Havre’s away markers: vs Lens (0-1, xG 0.55-2.08), vs Lyon (0-1, xG 1.31-2.56), vs PSG (0-3, xG 1.19-3.46). All three ended with Le Havre failing to score and conceding at least one. Their xG for was decent (0.95 avg) but finishing was poor. The pattern: Lille keep clean sheets at home against non-top teams; Le Havre rarely score away. The overlap suggests a low-scoring Lille win with a possible clean sheet.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: Lille won 1-0 away in November 2025. That match saw Lille edge xG 1.62-1.18, but Le Havre had a red card early in the second half. Even before the red, Le Havre created chances (7 shots on target to Lille’s 2). The scoreline was tight. With both coaches still in charge and only minor squad changes, that result remains relevant. It reinforces the narrative of a narrow, defensive contest.

Small markets favor low events. Lille home corners avg 6.28, Le Havre away corners avg 3.56; total corners around 8.8, Under 9.5 at 1.73 looks solid. Yellow cards: Lille home avg 2.22, Le Havre away avg 2.44; total around 3.3, Under 4.5 at 1.67 is attractive. First half goals: Lille home 1H goals avg 0.56, Le Havre away 1H goals NO DATA but their opponents score 0.67 on average in the first half. 1H corners: Lille home 2.78, Le Havre away 1.00; total 3.78, Under 4.5 likely. Fouls: total around 21.5, Over 20.5 is probable but not bettable. Shots: Lille dominate but many from distance.

Bookmakers have Lille at 1.42 (implied 67.1%), which is about right given the gulf in class. But the value is in unders. Over/Under 2.5 is evenly priced at 1.91 each. My estimate: Under 2.5 has a 55-60% probability based on markers and H2H, so 1.91 offers slight value. BTTS No at 1.70 seems generous: Lille have kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 home games (excluding the Paris FC anomaly), and Le Havre have scored in only 3 of last 5 away. That gives BTTS No around 60-65% chance. The odds imply 58.8%, so it’s fair but not a steal. Corner Under 9.5 at 1.73: home markers avg 8.78, away markers avg 8.34, so under is slightly more likely. Yellow card Under 4.5 at 1.67: markers suggest avg 3.28-4.00, league avg 3.9, so under is plausible.