Londrina vs Avaí - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both Londrina and Avaí are in the bottom two of the Série B table separated by just two points. Londrina sit 18th with 8 points from 12 matches (W2 D2 L8), while Avaí are 17th with 10 points (W2 D4 L6). With the season only one-third complete, every point is crucial to avoid relegation. Both teams desperately need a win, but their poor form and conservative styles suggest caution rather than attacking abandon. Londrina have lost three straight, the last two by 1-0 and 0-1, while Avaí have lost four consecutive matches, though they at least scored in the last two. The pressure is high, but neither side has shown the quality to dominate. Motivation is at its peak for both, but that often leads to tight, nervous affairs rather than open football.

Londrina's recent form is dreadful: they have lost their last three matches, failing to score in each. Their last home game was a 0-1 defeat to Vila Nova where they played an hour with 10 men. That followed a 1-3 home loss to São Bernardo and a 3-0 away thrashing at Fortaleza. Over their last seven overall, they have scored just 2 goals from 1.1 xG per game, highlighting a serious attacking deficiency. At home, they average 0.8 goals per game but concede 1.6. Their xG at home is only 0.97, so they slightly underperform but still create little. Avaí's form is similarly poor: four consecutive losses, including a 2-1 loss at Ceará and a 1-2 home loss to Criciúma. However, they have scored in each of those four defeats, showing a bit more bite in attack. Away from home, Avaí average 1.1 goals per game but concede 2.0. Their NPxG on the road is just 0.72, so they rely on finishing over creation. Both teams are in a rut, but Avaí at least have a pulse going forward.

Londrina have two key injuries: forward Gilberto (doubtful) and midfielder Lucas Marques (missing). With only 15 of 17 key players available, and no clear replacement for their main attacking threat, the home side's already weak attack could be further blunted. The squad depth is thin, and without Marques, creativity in midfield suffers. Avaí have a longer injury list with eight players unavailable, including key defender Jonathan Costa (missing) and key forward Rafael Bilú (doubtful). Three important players are missing or doubtful, which destabilises both defence and attack. Given the teams' low-quality squads, these absences lower the overall ceiling of the match. Neither side can rely on a star to unlock a tight game, making a goal-fest unlikely.

Both teams are described as defensive, corner-heavy, and card-heavy. Londrina average 45.5% possession at home, while Avaí average 52.2% away, suggesting Avaí may have a slight edge in ball retention but not enough to dominate. The tactical clash pits two defensive outfits against each other, which typically leads to low-scoring affairs. However, both concede chances: Londrina's home xG against is 1.42, and Avaí's away xG against is 1.67, so there will be openings. But with both prioritising organisation over risk, the tempo will be slow, and clear-cut chances should be scarce. Set pieces could be a key route to goal, as both teams are corner-heavy: Londrina average 8.23 corners for at home, Avaí concede 5.89 away. Expect a cautious but occasionally scrappy game, with few goals.

LONDRIÑA HOME MARKERS (5 matches): The sample includes one match with an early red card (Vila Nova), which distorts averages. In that game, Londrina had just 2 corners and lost 0-1. In the other four, corners averaged 8.5 for and 4.75 against, totals around 13. Goals: 0-0 vs Ceará (xG total 2.18), 1-2 vs Sport Recife (xG total 3.08, penalty included), 2-2 vs Goiás (xG total 3.74), 1-3 vs São Bernardo (xG total 1.57). So 3 of 5 had Under 2.5 (the 0-0, 1-2, and the red-card game), while 2 went Over. Big chances per match: 1.26 for, 2.19 against – opponent creates more. The pattern: Londrina are not prolific but concede decent chances. AVAI AWAY MARKERS (6 matches): No red-card distortions in the sample. Goals: 1-2 loss at Ceará, 0-2 loss at Vila Nova, 1-2 loss at Atlético Goianiense, 2-2 draw at Sport Recife, 1-0 win at CRB, 1-2 loss at Criciúma. That's 4 of 6 Under 2.5 (the three 1-2s and the 1-0) and 2 Over (2-2 and 1-2 vs Ceará? Actually the Ceará match ended 1-2, that's Under 2.5 – wait, 1-2 is 3 goals, Over 2.5. Let me recount: 1-2 (3 goals), 0-2 (2 goals), 1-2 (3), 2-2 (4), 1-0 (1), 1-2 (3). So Under 2.5 in 2 matches (0-2 and 1-0), Over in 4 matches (1-2 three times and 2-2). That's actually 67% Over? But earlier I said 67% Under. Let me correct: the numbers show 4 Over, 2 Under. So Avaí away matches have tended to go Over 2.5 (67%). However, their average total xG is 2.50, and NPxG 2.14, so expected goals slightly below the threshold but outcomes have been high-scoring due to opponent finishing. The pattern: Avaí concede plenty but also score on occasion, leading to open games. Overlap: Londrina home markers and Avaí away markers suggest a potential Under 2.5 if Londrina's defensive home form cancels Avaí's attacking flashes. But given Avaí's away trend, caution is warranted.

No meetings between these teams in the last 12 months. Historical record shows Londrina 1 win, 3 draws, Avaí 5 wins, but without detail this is of limited use. Both coaches (Rogério Micale for Londrina, Cauan for Avaí) have not faced each other recently. The lack of recent H2H means we rely solely on current form and markers.

Londrina home corners: total avg 13.09, with 5.48 in first half. Avaí away corners: total avg 8.40, with 3.53 in first half. Combined total corners around 10.75 on average, but with high variance. Yellow cards: Londrina home total 4.36, Avaí away total 7.00, league average 5.3, so expect around 6-7 cards. 1H goals: Londrina home 1H goals avg 1.50, Avaí away 1H goals avg 1.70, so first halves often have at least one goal. However, these averages are inflated by a few high-scoring halves. The 1H xG totals are 1.24 and 1.17 respectively, supporting a moderate chance of a first-half goal. BTTS in 1H? Less likely given the low scoring nature.

The odds have moved significantly: Under 2.5 shortened from 2.25 to 1.70 ( -24% ), while Over 2.5 drifted from 1.61 to 2.10 ( +30% ). This is a huge shift signalling strong market belief in a low-scoring game. Fair probabilities from margin-removed market: Home win 42.3% (fair odds 2.37), Draw 29.3% (3.41), Away win 28.4% (3.52). Current market odds: Home 2.15, Draw 3.10, Away 3.20. All three have negative EV against the market's own fair probabilities. For Under 2.5 at 1.70, if we estimate 60% probability, fair odds are 1.67, giving a small positive EV of 0.02. The market movement suggests the Under is now fairly priced, but there may still be a tiny edge. The Over at 2.10 implies 47.6% implied probability, but our estimate is around 40%, so Over has negative EV.