Mirassol vs Corinthians - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams are stuck in the lower half of the table, but their situations are different. Mirassol sit 18th with just 9 points from 12 matches, firmly in the relegation zone. Every point at home is crucial for survival, especially against a direct rival. They have a Libertadores match midweek, but given their league struggles, expect full focus here. Corinthians, 14th with 15 points from 13 games, are more comfortable. They also have a Libertadores trip to Santa Fe in three days, which might prompt some rotation. The motivation edge clearly goes to Mirassol – they need the win more, and the crowd at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia will push them. Corinthians can afford a draw or even a loss without panic.

Mirassol are in terrible shape – lost 6 of their last 7 overall, including three straight home defeats. The only win came at Internacional (2-1) where they actually created less xG (1.28 vs 1.63). At home, they've failed to win in 5 games (2 draws, 3 losses) and have scored just 4 goals in those 5. The xG numbers tell a mixed story: overall they underperform (avg xG 1.28 vs 0.9 goals), but at home they overperform (1.42 xG vs 1.8 goals) – that's unsustainable. Corinthians are more stable away: 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses in their last 6 travels. They've kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 7 overall and have been difficult to break down. Their away xG is low (0.76 per game) but fairly reflected in goals (0.8 per game). Both sides lack attacking punch right now.

Mirassol are missing key forward Negueba (injured) and key midfielder Yuri (doubtful). That hurts creativity. They also have several rotation players out, but the first-choice attack is weakened. Corinthians are hit harder: key midfielders André Carrillo and André Luiz are out, key defender Gustavo Henrique is doubtful, and star forward Memphis Depay is doubtful. That's five crucial players potentially missing. The squad depth is tested, especially in midfield. Both teams will likely start with defensive setups, but Mirassol's attacking absences could make them even more reliant on set pieces. Corinthians' missing creators mean fewer chances from open play. This further tilts the match towards a low-scoring grind.

This is a tactical battle between two defensive, corner-hungry sides. Mirassol average 57% possession at home but their style is 'defensive, corner-heavy' – they keep the ball but struggle to create clear chances. Corinthians away are also defensive and card-heavy, with only 51% possession. The clash of two cautious systems usually produces few high-quality chances. Mirassol's home markers show a total xG of 2.79 per game, but that's inflated by red card anomalies. Corinthians' away markers average just 1.88 total xG – incredibly low. Set pieces and cards become key. Mirassol win many corners (8.56 per home game), Corinthians concede few (3.02 away). Expect a physical, stop-start game with many fouls and cards.

Mirassol's home markers (5 matches) show a pattern: high corners (avg 12.23 total), consistent yellow cards (avg 4.35 total), and a lot of shots (avg 31.28). But goals are low: only 2 of 5 had over 2.5 goals. The 2-2 draws against Santos and Cruzeiro were affected by red cards and penalties. Against Bragantino and Coritiba they lost 0-1, creating good xG (1.74 vs Coritiba) but failing to score. The 2-1 win vs Vasco had low xG (0.68). So Mirassol at home create chances but are wasteful, while opponents often punish them on the counter. Corinthians' away markers (7 matches) are a goal-shy story. Average total xG is just 1.88, and only 2 of 7 had over 2.5 goals. They struggle to create: avg xG for is 0.70, shots on target 2.28. But they are disciplined defensively: 3 clean sheets in 7 away markers. The matches are card-heavy (avg 6.56 yellows) and foul-heavy (avg 29.90 fouls). Corners are low (avg 8.43 total). The pattern is clear: Corinthians play tight, tactical games on the road, rarely involved in high-scoring affairs. Overlapping patterns: both teams produce low total goals, high cards, and moderate corners. Mirassol's home corners are high, but Corinthians' away corners are very low, so total corners might not reach high lines. The card total, however, is consistently elevated.

Only 2 meetings in the last 12 months. In October 2025, Corinthians won 3-0 away (xG 2.14-1.60, Mirassol even created chances but converted none). In May 2025, Mirassol won 2-1 at home (xG 2.68-1.35, a deserved win). Both matches had over 2.5 goals and high xG totals, but the sample is tiny. The coaches are the same for both sides, but squad changes are significant (8 for Mirassol, 7 for Corinthians). The H2H suggests potential for goals, but current form and missing players contradict that.

Small markets: Mirassol's home xG for 1.36 vs Corinthians' away xG for 0.70 – both low. Corners: Mirassol take many (8.56), Corinthians concede few (3.02), so total corners around 11-12. Yellow cards: Mirassol home 2.19, Corinthians away 3.21 – total around 5.4. 1H patterns: low scoring – Mirassol 1H goals 1.00, Corinthians away 1H goals 0.69. 1H corners also moderate. 1H cards high for Corinthians (1.18 yellows). The match is likely to be tight in the first half, with cards accumulating in the second half as frustration builds.

The odds have moved sharply. Under 2.5 shortened from 2.30 to 1.60 (-30%) – the market expects a low-scoring affair. Winner Home dropped from 2.45 to 2.25, while Away drifted from 2.82 to 3.30 (+17%). Cards Over 4.5 shortened to 1.73. The margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 41.5%, Draw 30.1%, Away 28.3%. My estimates: Home 40%, Draw 35%, Away 25%. Draw has marginal value but not strong. Under 2.5: I estimate 65% probability (fair odds 1.54), bookie offers 1.60 – slight value. BTTS No: I estimate 60% (fair 1.67), bookie 1.80 – good value. Cards Over 4.5: I estimate 70% (fair 1.43), bookie 1.73 – clear value.