New York City FC vs Columbus Crew - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams sit on 12 points, level in the standings, just outside the playoff spots. Every point matters at this early stage, and neither can afford to slip. New York City FC have lost two straight overall and three of their last four at home, so the pressure is on to turn things around. Columbus Crew, meanwhile, have won two of their last three away matches and have been scoring consistently on the road. With a midweek US Open Cup tie against each other looming, both sides will want momentum. Motivation is high on both sides, but Columbus have the slight edge in recent away form and confidence.

New York City FC are in poor form with two consecutive defeats, including a disappointing 0-2 home loss to DC United where they managed only 0.56 xG. Their 4-4 draw with Cincinnati showed attacking potential but also defensive fragility — they conceded 4 goals from 1.49 xG, an anomaly that suggests luck ran against them. Over their last seven, they've overperformed xG by 0.48 overall, and at home by a huge 1.04 — regression is coming. Columbus Crew, on the other hand, have won three of their last five, though their 2-3 loss to Minnesota United at home was a setback. Their away form is solid: 3-1 win at Atlanta United (despite red card), 2-1 loss at New England (but led 2-0 at half), and a 2-2 draw at Sporting KC. They are creating chances: 3.47 xG per away marker match, 4.35 big chances. While NYCFC's home numbers are decent (1.32 xG for, 1.05 against), Columbus's away attack looks sharper.

New York City FC are hit hard by injuries: key midfielder Aiden O'Neill and forwards Alonso Martínez and Kevin O'Toole are out, while Talles Magno is doubtful. That's four key players missing from the starting XI. Their squad depth is tested, especially in attack. Columbus Crew have two key absentees: forward Jamal Thiaré is out, and Wessam Abou Ali is doubtful. But their attacking core remains intact with Diego Rossi and Dániel Gazdag likely to start. The Crew's defensive setup may be weakened slightly, but NYCFC's missing attacking options could blunt their home advantage.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy, but the data tells a different story. NYCFC at home average 52.4% possession, while Columbus away average 53.6% — both are comfortable on the ball. Despite the 'defensive' tag, marker matches show total goals averaging 2.37 for NYCFC home matches and 3.47 for Columbus away matches. This suggests a clash where both sides can create chances. NYCFC tend to funnel play through the wings (high throw-ins, corners), while Columbus rely on set pieces and counters. The key battle will be in midfield: NYCFC's depleted midfield vs Columbus's more settled unit. Expect an open game with chances at both ends.

New York City FC home markers (3 matches): vs St.Louis City (1-1, xG 1.14-1.40, BC 2-1, corners 2-4) — a fairly even game with limited chances. vs Colorado Rapids (3-1, xG 1.34-0.76, BC 4-2, corners 4-4) — dominant win with good chance creation. vs Orlando City (5-0, xG 2.40-0.16, BC 3-0, corners 5-2) — early red card for Orlando distorted the match. Combined averages: 2.37 total xG, 4.19 big chances, 6.87 corners. Despite the defensive label, NYCFC create chances at home. Columbus Crew away markers (3 matches): vs Atlanta United (3-1, xG 1.46-1.24, BC 5-2, corners 8-4) — impressive win despite red card. vs Sporting KC (2-2, xG 3.15-1.49, BC 7-3, corners 4-4) — high xG, lots of chances. vs Portland Timbers (2-3, xG 1.25-0.94, BC 0-4, corners 8-6) — lost but created chances. Averages: 3.47 total xG, 7.48 big chances, 10.71 corners. The patterns are clear: Columbus away matches are open, with lots of shots and big chances. NYCFC home matches are moderate but not low-scoring. Overlap points to goals and corners.

Only one H2H match in the last 12 months: on September 17, 2025, New York City FC won 3-2 at home. The xG was 2.04-1.31 in NYCFC's favor, but Columbus had a penalty. Shots were 18-8, corners 7-3. Both teams created chances, and the game ended with 5 goals. This suggests that when these teams meet, goals are likely. Continuity is good: both coaches are the same, and only 4 players have changed for each side. The pattern from that match supports an over 2.5 expectation.

Small markets data from marker matches: NYCFC home average total corners 6.87, Columbus away average 10.71. Yellow cards: NYCFC home total 3.77, Columbus away total 2.67. Referee Rubiel Vazquez averages 3.70 yellows per match, below league average of 4.4. First half corners: NYCFC home 4.32, Columbus away 6.97 — suggesting early corner activity. Shots on target: NYCFC home total 9.69, Columbus away 9.71 — very similar. The data points to a game with decent attacking stats, especially from Columbus's perspective.

Bookmaker odds imply a balanced match with a slight away lean. Winner odds: Home 2.40, Draw 3.60, Away 2.65. After removing margin: Home 38.9%, Draw 25.9%, Away 35.2%. Significant odds movements show money coming for Columbus: Away win shortened from 3.00 to 2.65, Draw no bet away from 2.20 to 1.91, First team to score Columbus from 2.10 to 1.95. Meanwhile, Home win drifted from 2.15 to 2.40. The market is clearly leaning towards Columbus. BTTS Yes is priced at 1.61, implying ~62% probability, which aligns with marker data showing high chance creation. Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 (59% implied) seems fair given both teams' tendencies. Value may exist on Columbus win or BTTS Yes.