New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams sit mid-table with just 1 point separating them. NYRB are 21st, Dallas 13th, but neither is in a relegation fight or chasing a playoff spot at this early stage. Motivation is balanced – both need points but neither is desperate. NYRB have the home advantage, but their fans expect attacking football. Dallas are comfortable away and will look to counter. The season is only 26% complete, so every point matters, but the urgency isn't high. NYRB face a tough upcoming schedule (Chicago away, Columbus home), while Dallas have easier home matches against Real Salt Lake and Vancouver. This slight schedule advantage might push Dallas to be more conservative, but NYRB's style and personnel dictate an open game.

NYRB are wildly inconsistent: they drew 4-4 with DC United at home despite an xG loss (1.28-3.41), beat Cincinnati 4-2 but conceded 2.80 xG, and lost 0-3 at home to Montreal where they had 67% possession but created only 0.65 xG. They score and concede freely. At home, they average 2.5 goals scored but 3.0 conceded per game. Their xG at home is just 1.28, meaning they are overperforming in attack, which suggests regression. FC Dallas are defensively sound on the road: they held Seattle to 1.80 xG, DC United to 0.61 xG, and LAFC to 1.20 xG. However, they have scored only 1.2 goals per away game on 1.18 xG. Their recent form shows they can keep it tight but struggle to create chances away. The key is that both teams' recent away/home form points to contrasting styles: NYRB leaky, Dallas compact.

NYRB are severely depleted in defense: key defenders John Tolkin, Justin Che, Noah Eile, and Sean Nealis are all out. That's their entire first-choice backline. The replacements are inexperienced, and it showed in the 4-4 draw with DC United where they conceded 3.41 xG. Dallas are missing key forwards: Anderson Julio, Bernard Kamungo, and Petar Musa are injured. Musa is their top scorer, so losing him blunts their attack. However, their defensive unit is intact, with Osaze Urhoghide and Sebastien Ibeagha at the back. The absence of NYRB's defenders is more impactful because it directly affects their goal-conceding rate, while Dallas's defensive shape remains solid. Expect NYRB to struggle to keep a clean sheet, and Dallas to find it harder to score but still capable via set pieces or counters.

This is a classic low-block vs. high-possession clash. NYRB average 54.9% possession, while Dallas average 43.7% on the road. NYRB like to control the ball but are vulnerable to counter-attacks due to their high defensive line and missing defenders. Dallas sit deep, absorb pressure, and look to break quickly. In marker matches, NYRB conceded an average of 4.44 big chances per home game – that's alarming. Dallas, despite their defensive setup, concede an average of 3.11 big chances away, but they also create 2.67 themselves. The match type suggests NYRB will have the ball but leave space for Dallas to exploit. Goals look likely from both sides, especially with NYRB's defensive absences. Corners should be plentiful: NYRB average 4.44 corners for at home, Dallas 5.67 away, total around 10, which aligns with the over 9.5 line.

NYRB's three home markers are all high-scoring chaos. Against DC United, they drew 4-4 but were out-xG'd 1.28-3.41, with 4 big chances conceded. Against Cincinnati, they won 4-2 but allowed 2.80 xG and 6 big chances, and the game had a red card. Against Montreal, they lost 0-3, managing only 0.65 xG while conceding 1.92 xG. The pattern is clear: NYRB create little but score a lot (overperforming), while conceding a ton of chances. Their home games average 4.26 total xG, with 6.22 big chances. For Dallas away, they lost 1-2 to Seattle despite creating 1.80 xG and 5 big chances, but conceded 1.80 xG. They won 4-0 at DC United, a game where they were out-xG'd 0.61-2.07 but scored from 4 big chances – regression alert. They lost 0-1 to LAFC, creating 0.50 xG while conceding 1.20. Dallas away matches average 2.39 total xG, but they are overperforming (0.4 goals above xG). The overlapping pattern: NYRB home is a goal-fest waiting to happen, and Dallas away can both score and concede. The small sample (3 each) limits confidence, but these trends are consistent.

The two most recent H2H meetings were wild. In February 2026, NYRB lost 2-3 away, with 1 penalty and 1 red card. In May 2025, NYRB won 6-5 at home, a game that had 2.43-1.27 xG but 19 shots vs 6, 2-3 big chances, and a red card. Both saw at least 5 goals and multiple cards. The 6-5 game stands out as an outlier, but it shows that when these teams meet, discipline breaks down. With both coaches still in charge and many players still around, the pattern of high goals and cards could continue. However, only 2 matches is a tiny sample, so we give it limited weight. The lack of clean sheets in both is notable.

First-half patterns: NYRB home 1H goals average 2.89 total (1.67 for, 1.22 against), with 1.56 xG and 2.44 big chances. Dallas away 1H goals average 2.66 total (1.33 each side), but with only 0.79 xG and 2.45 big chances. So goals come early, but xG suggests some overperformance. For corners, NYRB home 1H corners total 4.00, Dallas away 1H corners total 4.44 – both below 5. Cards: NYRB home 1H cards total 0.33, while Dallas away 1H cards total 1.67. Given the referee averages 3.01 yellows per game, the under 3.5 cards line at 2.20 might be a play. NYRB home total cards average 2.89, Dallas away 4.12. League average is 4.3, so NYRB are below, Dallas above. The referee's low card average (3.01) suggests the under. Fouls are also slightly below average.

The market has moved sharply towards goals. Over 2.5 shortened from 2.40 to 1.48, indicating heavy money. BTTS Yes shortened from 1.50 to 1.40. Under 2.5 has drifted to 2.60. The margin-removed fair probabilities give Home Win 45.5%, Draw 25.9%, Away Win 28.7%. I estimate Over 2.5 probability at 85% given NYRB's home markers and defensive absences, which would make fair odds 1.18, so 1.48 offers value (EV = 0.85*1.48 - 1 = 0.258). For BTTS Yes, I estimate 75% probability (fair odds 1.33), so 1.40 also has value (EV = 0.75*1.40 - 1 = 0.05). On the result, I see value on Away Win: I estimate 35% probability (fair odds 2.86), but bookmaker offers 3.25, so EV = 0.35*3.25 - 1 = 0.1375. However, away wins in MLS are less common, so I keep confidence medium. The odds movement suggests the crowd backs goals and NYRB, but the away-win odds drifted slightly (3.60 to 3.25? Actually it shortened from 3.60? The movement shows 2: 3.25 ↓, so shortened. But margin-removed is 3.49, so current 3.25 is below fair, meaning no value. I'll adjust away win probability to 30%, EV negative.