Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid - AI Prediction & Analysis

Osasuna are comfortably mid-table with nothing to play for but pride. Atlético Madrid, however, are locked in a tight battle for Champions League spots – just 4 points clear of 5th with 3 games left. Every point is crucial for Simeone's men. The fixture calendar brings no immediate distractions: both teams have a full week until their next match, so rotation risk is minimal. Osasuna will want to finish their home campaign on a high, especially after beating Real Madrid and pushing Barcelona recently. But the visitors have far more at stake. Motivation edge clearly to Atlético, but Osasuna's home crowd can level the mental intensity.

Osasuna have been resilient at home, going undefeated in their last 5 at El Sadar (3W, 2D) and scoring in all 15 home matches this season. Their xG at home (1.57 per game) is solid, and they've overperformed slightly. However, overall form is patchy – 1 win in 5 matches overall. Atlético are coming off a shock home loss to Celta (0-1) and a midweek Champions League exit to Arsenal. Their away form is erratic: 4 losses in 6 away games, but those defeats came against strong sides (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Arsenal). Notably, they've been involved in high-scoring away games lately, but that's partly due to red cards skewing data. Regression risk is moderate given their overperformance away from home.

Osasuna are missing key goalkeeper Sergio Herrera and attacker Bryan Zaragoza, which weakens both their defense and creativity. Atlético have a lengthy injury list: key defenders Giménez and Molina are out, key midfielders Barrios and Cardoso missing, and star striker Julián Alvarez doubtful. That's 7 key players unavailable – a huge blow to Simeone's usual XI. The starting lineup shows Lookman and Sørloth up front, but without Alvarez's movement and Giménez's stability at the back, Atlético may lack their usual defensive solidity. Osasuna's injuries hurt, but Atlético's are more impactful given they disrupt the entire spine of the team.

Both teams lean defensive: Osasuna average 40.7% possession, favor set pieces and corners. Atlético under Simeone are traditionally compact, press high, and rely on counter-attacks. This creates a tactical battle where neither will commit many players forward. Osasuna's corner-heavy style (avg 4.33 corners at home) could trouble Atlético's makeshift defense. However, Atlético's discipline in cards (avg 3.29 yellows away) suggests a physical, stop-start game. The clash of two defensive systems typically produces low goal counts, but set pieces and errors can still yield goals. Expect a tight, midfield-heavy affair with few clear chances.

Osasuna's home markers: vs Barcelona (1-2 loss, xG 0.91-1.20, 10 corners, 3 yellows) – they competed well but couldn't hold off a superior side. vs Real Betis (1-1, xG 1.32-0.40, 9 corners, 7 yellows) – dominated xG but only drew, typical defensive solidity. vs Real Madrid (2-1 win, xG 2.29-1.70, 10 corners, 6 yellows) – a famous victory built on set pieces and high foul count. vs Villarreal (2-2, xG 1.37-0.92, 8 corners, 4 yellows) – again high corners and fouls. The pattern: Osasuna concede possession (>60%) but create chances from set plays, with consistent corner totals (8-10) and yellow cards (4-7). Atlético's away markers: vs Elche (3-2 loss, xG 1.01-2.67, 16 corners, 4 yellows, red card) – chaotic match with early red for Atlético, inflating all stats. vs Sevilla (1-2 loss, xG 0.79-1.78, 12 corners, 8 yellows) – fought back but conceded late, high card count. vs Tottenham (2-3 loss, xG 1.02-2.39, 14 corners, 7 yellows) – again high corners and cards in a high-tempo match. Even excluding the red-card match, Atlético's away markers average 13 corners and 7.5 yellows. The overlap: both teams produce high corner and card counts, but goals are moderate – Osasuna home total goals avg 2.45, Atlético away avg 3.06 but bloated by anomalies. Under 2.5 fits the underlying trends.

Only two meetings in the last 12 months. At Atlético in October 2025: a tight 1-0 home win for Atlético, but the xG was heavily in their favor (2.58-1.14). Osasuna defended deep but created little. At Osasuna in May 2025: a surprising 2-0 home win for Osasuna, despite xG 0.58-1.36 – classic overperformance. Both matches had low corner counts (6-7 total) and moderate cards (4-5 yellows). The pattern is low-scoring, with the home team often outperforming expectations. However, the sample is tiny and both sides have changed personnel significantly (6 each). Still, the historical trend supports a tight, under-2.5 encounter.

First-half patterns: Osasuna home 1H goal total avg 1.27, with 1H corners avg 6.11 and 1H yellows avg 2.50. Atlético away 1H goal total avg 2.55 (inflated by red cards), but 1H corners avg 7.52 and 1H yellows avg 2.06. The 1H is often the more cautious phase for both. Yellow card totals: Osasuna home avg 4.94, Atlético away avg 6.90 – both well above league average of 4.7. Fouls are consistent: Osasuna home 23.67, Atlético away 21.39. Corners: Osasuna home 9.39, Atlético away 13.42 – but the latter includes a 16-corner outlier. Overall, a physical match with many set pieces.

Bookmaker fair probabilities: Home 38.8%, Draw 27.2%, Away 34.0%. My estimates: Home 35%, Draw 30%, Away 35%. Slight value on Draw at 3.50 (implying 28.6%) vs my 30%. Significant odds movements include shortening on Under 2.5 from 2.00 to 1.80, indicating money on low goals. Over 3.5 cards shortened from 1.83 to 1.61, reflecting heavy support. Under 2.5 at 2.00 offers value given my 60% probability estimate (fair 1.67). Cards Over 3.5 at 1.61 has positive EV at 85% probability (fair 1.18). First team to score Osasuna at 1.91 is attractive given their 100% home scoring record and Atlético's away defensive lapses.