Osasuna vs Sevilla - AI Prediction & Analysis

Osasuna sit comfortably mid-table with 39 points, 10 points clear of the drop zone with six games left. They are essentially safe but can still push for a top-half finish. Sevilla, on the other hand, are in desperate trouble: 17th, just 34 points, only two points above the relegation zone. Every point is a fight for survival. The motivation differential is massive. Osasuna will want to please their home fans and build momentum, but their focus might not be razor-sharp. Sevilla need points and will treat this as a cup final. However, Sevilla’s away form is dreadful – they’ve lost three straight on the road, failing to score in two of them. The pressure is on them, and pressure can either bring out a heroic performance or a collapse. Given the stakes, Sevilla will be desperate to avoid defeat, but their fragility away from home suggests Osasuna have the edge. Calendar impact: neither has a midweek game, so full focus is on this match. Rotation risk is low for both with the season winding down.

Osasuna are inconsistent but solid at home. In their last seven overall: W2 D3 L2. The numbers look decent: they average 1.27 xG per game but have only scored 1.1 goals, slight underperformance. At home they average 1.57 xG and 1.8 goals, overperforming slightly. Recent home matches: a 1-1 draw with Betis (xG 1.32-0.40), a 1-0 win over Girona (dominated xG 1.71-0.21), a 2-2 draw with Mallorca (despite a red card), and a 2-1 win over Real Madrid. So they can produce high xG at home and have been unlucky not to win more. Sevilla are in freefall. Last seven: W1 D2 L4. Their away form is atrocious: lost four of last six, including a 5-2 thrashing at Barcelona (xG 3.66-0.83 for Barca) and a 1-0 loss at Real Oviedo (xG 0.66-0.48). Their only away win in that run was against Levante, who are also struggling. Defensively they are leaking: average 1.57 xG against away from home. They do create chances (1.18 xG away) but conversion is poor. Overall xG divergence shows they have overperformed (avg xG 0.72 vs 1.0 goals), so regression could hit. They are in bad shape.

Osasuna miss key centre-back Alejandro Catena due to injury. Catena has been a mainstay in defense; without him, the backline could be weaker, especially against Sevilla’s counter-attacks. Also missing rotation midfielder Asier Osambela and forward Iker Benito. But their starting XI remains strong, with top scorer Ante Budimir leading the line. Sevilla miss key defender César Azpilicueta, a huge blow for their backline. He provides experience and organization. Also missing rotation midfielder Adnan Januzaj and defender Marcão is doubtful. With Azpilicueta out, Sevilla’s defense becomes even more suspect. Both teams lose key defensive players, which could lead to more goals. But Sevilla’s defensive record without Azpilicueta is poor: they conceded 5 at Barcelona and 2 at Levante without him.

This is a tactical battle between two defensive-minded teams, but the numbers suggest goals could come. Osasuna at home are not just defensive; they create chances (avg 1.8 xG at home) and have scored in every home game this season. They play direct, use set pieces, and press high. Sevilla away are also defensive but have been forced to open up when trailing. They average 56% possession away, which is high for a struggling team, but they struggle to convert. The clash of defensive styles often leads to low scoring, but Osasuna’s home attacking numbers and Sevilla’s defensive frailties suggest Osasuna will create chances. Sevilla may also get chances if Osasuna’s missing defender Catena leaves gaps. Corners should be high: Osasuna average 6 corners at home, Sevilla 7 away. Both teams take many set pieces. Cards are also plentiful: Osasuna average 4.63 total cards at home, Sevilla 5.55 away. The referee not assigned but league card average is 4.6. Expect a scrappy, physical match with many fouls and cards.

Let's analyze Osasuna's home markers against similar defensive teams. First, against Girona (1-0 win): Osasuna dominated, xG 1.71-0.21, 3 big chances, 11 shots on target. Girona is not defensive, but they sat back. Osasuna created plenty but only scored one. Against Mallorca (2-2 draw, red card): xG 2.56-1.08, 4 big chances, 8 corners. Mallorca is defensive; Osasuna still created high xG. The red card changed the game. Against Real Oviedo (3-2 win, red card): xG 1.37-1.34, 3 big chances each, 5 shots on target each. High xG but also defensive lapses. Against Deportivo Alavés (3-0 win): xG 2.01-0.57, 3 big chances, 9 corners. Dominant performance against a defensive side. Against Levante (2-0 win): xG 1.05-0.48, only 1 big chance. Lower xG but still controlled. Pattern: Osasuna at home consistently generate 1.5+ xG against defensive teams, averaging 2.97 big chances per match. They also average 6 corners and 1.8 yellow cards. Defensively they concede few big chances (1.2) but sometimes allow xG to higher-quality opponents. Overall, home markers show they are solid and can break down defensive sides. Sevilla's away markers against stronger/equal teams: at Levante (0-2 loss): xG 0.27-1.50, dominated in defense, poor attacking. At Real Oviedo (0-1 loss, red card): xG 0.66-0.48, even but red card hurt. At Mallorca (1-4 loss): xG 1.13-2.63, outplayed. At Elche (2-2 draw): xG 3.00-1.54, created lots but also conceded. At Valencia (1-1 draw): xG 0.32-1.19, lucky to draw. At Espanyol (1-2 loss): xG 1.82-1.09, created chances but lost. Pattern: Sevilla away are inconsistent with defense; they concede 1.57 xG per match and allow many big chances (1.88). However, they also create big chances (1.75). The overlapping pattern: Osasuna create high xG at home, Sevilla concede high xG away. So goals from both sides are plausible, but Osasuna's defense is also solid at home (0.74 xG against). Sevilla's attack away is weak (1.18 xG). The marker data suggests Osasuna should win, but Sevilla might score.

Only one H2H match in the last 12 months: on November 8, 2025, Sevilla won 1-0 away (xG 1.29-1.70 in favor of Osasuna). That means Osasuna actually created the better chances (1.29 xG to 1.70, but NPxG 1.29-0.94) but lost. The match had 11 corners, 8 cards, and Sevilla scored from a penalty. Very limited sample, but it shows Osasuna can dominate this fixture. Both coaches are the same, so tactics likely similar. The previous result might give Sevilla confidence, but Osasuna will be keen to revenge at home.

Small markets: Corners Over 9.5 is priced at 2.00, and the average total corners in markers is 8.1 for Osasuna home and 11.5 for Sevilla away. Combined, that's 19.6, but that's skewed by high away corners. In H2H, total corners were 11. The line of 9.5 seems high but plausible given Sevilla's average away corners of 7.09 and Osasuna's home corners of 5.97 sum to 13.06. So Over 9.5 is likely. Yellow cards: total average 4.63 for Osasuna home, 5.55 for Sevilla away. League average 4.6. So Over 4.5 cards is likely. Both teams average many fouls. 1H patterns: goals in 1H are low (Osasuna 0.47 for, 1.00 against; Sevilla 0.33 for, 0.72 against). So Under 1.5 1H goals could be value. Saves data: Osasuna average 2.1 saves at home, Sevilla away average 2.12, so low saves.

Bookmaker odds: Osasuna win at 2.05, draw 3.25, Sevilla away 4.00. Margin-removed fair probabilities: Home 46.7%, Draw 29.4%, Away 23.9%. My estimate: Osasuna win probability around 52% given home strength and Sevilla's poor form. That gives fair odds 1.92, so 2.05 is slight value (EV +0.06). Draw probability 30% - close to fair. Sevilla win 18% - value in away win? Probably not given away form. Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.10, Under 1.73. My estimate: about 45% over, 55% under. Under 2.5 at 1.73 has negative EV (0.55*1.73=0.95). Over 2.5 at 2.10 has EV? 0.45*2.1=0.945, also negative. So no clear value on total. BTTS: Yes 1.91, No 1.91. My estimate: 50% each, so no edge. Corners Over 9.5 at 2.00: My estimate 55% probability, fair odds 1.82, value. Yellow cards Over 4.5: market not shown but likely around 1.85. Estimate 60% probability, value. The odds movement: significant drift on away win (3.50 to 4.00) suggests money on home side. Draw no bet home shortened, indicating confidence in Osasuna.