Parma vs Pisa - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams have little to play for in this bottom-half clash. Parma sit 14th with 39 points, nine clear of the relegation zone, and their season is effectively over. They've been drifting in mid-table mediocrity since February, with nothing but pride on the line. Pisa, rock bottom with just 18 points, were relegated long ago. They've lost four consecutive away games, conceding 12 goals in the process, and have mustered only one win in their last 20 overall. With both sides having nothing to fight for, intensity will be low. The upcoming fixtures don't help either: Parma face Inter and Roma next, while Pisa host Lecce and Cremonese – both easier on paper. But that doesn't change the fact that this is a dead rubber between two teams that can't wait for the season to end. Expect a slow, low-intensity affair with minimal commitment in duels.

Parma's recent form is tepid: one win in seven, four draws, two losses. They scraped past Udinese 1-0 but were dominated in xG (1.13-1.23). At home, they've scored just 0.6 goals per game on an average xG of 0.79 – they're actually underperforming expected goals at the Tardini. The 1-1 draw with Napoli was a smash-and-grab: 0.19 xG for, 1.21 against. Against Cremonese they lost 0-2 with 0.36 xG. So Parma's attack at home is blunt. Pisa are in freefall: six losses in seven, with only a home win against Cagliari (3-1) where they overperformed xG (2.47-1.18). Away from home, they've been demolished by Roma (3-0), Como (5-0), and Juventus (4-0). But those were against top sides; against weaker teams like Hellas Verona they managed a 0-0 draw with 0.82 xG for and 0.06 against – showing they can be stubborn when needed. Their average xG on the road is 0.81, but they've scored only 0.7 goals per game, so slight underperformance. Neither side is in good goal-scoring form.

Parma are missing two key players: midfielder Cremaschi and forward Kowalski, both injured. Cremaschi is the heartbeat of their midfield; without him, they lack creativity. Also out are rotation forwards Benedyczak, Charpentier, and Frigan. That leaves Pellegrino as the main striker, who has been inconsistent. Pisa are without key midfielder Léris, and Marin is doubtful. Their midfield is weakened, which hurts their ability to hold possession. Both teams lose important cogs in their offensive machinery, further reducing goal potential.

This is a classic tactical battle of two defensive-minded teams. Parma, at home, average 53% possession but don't create much: their attacking style is cautious, with a low xG per shot. They rely on set pieces and corners – they average 5.09 corners per home game. Pisa, away, sit deep in a low block (43% possession) and also rely on set pieces, averaging 3.61 corners away. They are card-heavy on the road (2.17 yellows per game) and commit many fouls. Both teams prioritize defensive organization over fluid attack. The result should be a low-tempo game with few clear-cut chances. Possession will be split but neither side will penetrate easily.

Parma's home marker matches reveal a clear pattern: low-scoring, defensive affairs. Against Cremonese (0-2), they had only 0.36 xG and 1 shot on target. Against Cagliari (1-1), 1.31 xG for but only 4 SoT. Against Hellas Verona (2-1), they had 1.66 xG but faced an early red card (11th minute) – that anomaly inflated the goal count; without it, the match likely ends 1-0 or 1-1. Against Fiorentina (1-0), 0.95 xG and 2 SoT. Three of four matches had under 2.5 goals, and the average total xG is just 1.69. So when Parma face similar-level opposition at home, they struggle to score. Pisa's away markers show a similar low-scoring trend, with one exception: the 2-2 draw at Cagliari (2.54 xG for Pisa, a penalty). The other three matches had 0, 1, and 1 goals. Against Fiorentina (0-1), they mustered 0.28 xG. Against Hellas Verona (0-0), 0.82 xG but no goals. Against Lecce (0-1), 0.22 xG. So away from home, Pisa rarely score or concede many – except when facing a team that pushes forward. The overlapping pattern: both teams create low xG totals and produce under 2.5 goals. Even with the Verona match (which had a red), the pattern is consistent: when these defensive teams meet, goals are scarce.

Only one meeting in the past 12 months: Parma won 1-0 away at Pisa in December 2025. That match was tight: Parma had 1.18 xG (with a penalty), Pisa had 1.52 xG but hit the post. The only goal came from a penalty. Corners were 0-6 in Pisa's favour, and the match saw one red card in stoppage time. So it was a low-scoring, tense affair – exactly what the marker data suggests. Both coaches are still in charge, and squad changes are minimal (5 players each), so the tactical setup should be similar.

First-half stats: Parma's home markers average 0.21 total goals in the first half (0.13 for, 0.08 against). Pisa's away markers average 1.44 first-half goals (1.00 for, 0.44 against) – but that's inflated by a single match (Cagliari). The other three away matches had 0, 0, and 0 first-half goals. So 1H goals are rare. Corners: Parma home average 3.74 1H corners, Pisa away average 5.17 – but Pisa's opponent corners are 3.00, meaning Parma may get fewer at home. Total corners in markers: Parma home 7.73, Pisa away 9.61. Combined, that's around 8.7 – near the bookmaker line of 8.5. Yellow cards: Parma home markers average 5.36 total, Pisa away 4.45 – combined 4.9, above league average of 3.7. So cards could be a market. BTTS: Parma home markers: BTTS in 2/4 (50%). Pisa away markers: BTTS in 1/4 (25%). Combined, BTTS only 37.5%. So 'No' is more likely.

The bookmaker's margin-removed probabilities give Home 45.3%, Draw 29.7%, Away 25.0%. My estimate: given low motivation and defensive styles, Home is overvalued at these odds. I'd peg it at 38% Home, 35% Draw, 27% Away. That means no value on the result. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.61 (implied 62%). But marker data suggests a 75% probability (3/4 for both sides). Even accounting for small sample, a conservative 65% gives fair odds of 1.54. The market offers 1.61, so slight value. BTTS No at 1.80 (implied 55.6%) is generous given marker frequency of 62.5% (5/8 matches BTTS No). My estimate: 65% No, fair odds 1.54, so clear value on BTTS No. Corners Over 8.5 at 1.80 (implied 55.6%) vs marker average of 8.67 total corners, which is just above 8.5. But consistency is moderate; I'd avoid corners.