Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC - AI Prediction & Analysis

Philadelphia Union sit dead last in MLS with 5 points from 10 matches, 17 points behind third-placed Nashville. Desperation is the word. Every point is gold for them to avoid the wooden spoon. Their upcoming fixtures are brutal – away to New England, Orlando, Columbus, then Inter Miami. This home game against a top side is their best chance to grab something. Nashville, meanwhile, are flying high at 22 points, but have a midweek CONCACAF Champions Cup clash against Tigres UANL. That's a massive continental game. Coach B.J. Callaghan might rotate key players to keep them fresh. The motivation gap is real: Philly fights for survival, Nashville has bigger fish to fry. Philly's crowd at Subaru Park will be up for it, but the team has won only once all season. Nashville's 3-match winning streak could be interrupted by rotation. The edge here is Philly's hunger vs Nashville's potential distraction.

Philadelphia Union have been dreadful. One win in 10, seven losses, a -8 goal difference. At home it's even worse: 0 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw in the last 5. But dig into the xG: at home they average 1.58 xG per match and concede 1.95. The 0-0 draw vs DC United was an outlier – they created 1.34 xG but couldn't score. The 1-2 loss to Chicago Fire? Chicago out-xG'd them 2.22-0.84. Philly underperform overall (avg xG 1.25 vs 0.9 goals scored) but at home they're roughly fair (1.58 vs 1.56). Nashville are on a 7-1-1 run, scoring 2.1 goals per game from 1.42 xG. That's overperformance of +0.68 – regression is coming. Their away form: 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw in last 5. But away xG is just 1.01 per match, and they conceded only 0.50 xG away. They beat Atlanta 2-0 despite 0.62 xG and 6 big chances against – unsustainable. Philly's home xG creation vs Nashville's away defensive numbers suggest a low-scoring affair.

Philadelphia are missing three key starters: Japhet Sery Larsen (defender), Olivier Mbaizo (defender), and Quinn Sullivan (midfielder). That's their entire right side gutted. Their backline has conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 5 home matches, and without those two, it's even weaker. Also, six more rotation players are out. They'll rely on a makeshift XI. Nashville have five key absentees: Edvard Tagseth, Randall Leal, Sam Surridge (all starters), plus Tyler Boyd and defender Lukas MacNaughton doubtful. Surridge is their top scorer profile – big loss. But they still have Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza, and a deep squad. The trade-off: Philly's defense is weakened, Nashville's attack loses its focal point. But Nashville's defense remains solid with Palacios and Woledzi. Rotation risk for Nashville is low due to Champions League midweek, but they might rest one or two. Philly's squad depth is terrible – they have no bench quality. This favours Nashville's superior depth even with absences.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy. That's a rare combination. Philadelphia, despite being poor, dominate corners at home – averaging 8.97 corners per match while conceding only 2.00. They'll likely generate many set-piece opportunities. Nashville away average 4.33 corners for and 5.11 against – they don't get many but they don't concede many either. The clash of styles: Philly will press for corners, Nashville will try to keep the game tight. Possession is balanced (Philly 52.2%, Nashville 46.1% away). But Philly's low-block approach at home? Actually they average 52% possession, so not a low block. They attack via the wings and crosses, leading to corners. Nashville's defense is disciplined – they allow few big chances away (0.22 per match in markers). That's elite. Goals? Philly's attack is poor (only 5 goals all season), Nashville's defense is stingy. Expect a low-scoring, tactical battle with Philly winning the corner count but struggling to score.

Philadelphia home markers (6 matches, relaxed filter): Their corner numbers are eye-popping. vs DC United: 13-1 corners, 0-0 draw. They dominated possession (62%) and had 18 shots but zero on target. vs Chicago Fire: 6-2 corners, lost 1-2, but conceded 2.22 xG. vs San Jose: 11-1 corners, lost 0-1, but had 20 fouls. vs New York City FC: 5-4 corners, lost 1-2, but created 2.07 xG including a penalty. vs CF Montréal: 2-4 loss, no corner data but two red cards. vs New York City FC (2025): 8-3 corners, lost 0-1. The pattern is clear: Philly dominates corners at home (avg 8.97 for, 2.00 against) but struggles to score. They concede about 2 big chances per game and average 4.24 yellow cards total. They also get red cards (2 in 6 matches). Nashville away markers (3 matches, strength-style filter): Their away defense is rock solid. xG against: 0.50, big chances against: 0.22. vs Atlanta: 6-5 corners, won 2-0 with 0.62 xG. vs Columbus: 3-6 corners, won 1-0 with 0.22 xG. vs FC Dallas: 3-4 corners, 0-0 draw. They are compact, hard to break down. Corner counts are moderate (avg 4.33 for, 5.11 against). They average 4.22 yellow cards per away game. The overlap: Philly's corner dominance vs Nashville's defensive resilience. Philly will likely get 8-12 corners, but goals will be scarce. Don't expect a high-scoring game.

Only two meetings in the last 12 months, both won by Nashville. In September 2025, Nashville won 3-1 away at Philly with xG 2.11-0.55. Philly had 59% possession but created just 0.55 xG and 5 big chances against. In July 2025, Nashville won 1-0 at home (MLS), xG 2.48-1.20, with a red card for Nashville (min 63). Philly actually had more possession (50%) but only 1.20 xG. The pattern: Nashville dominates the xG battle, limits Philly's chances. Both matches saw 7 total corners (3-4 each). Yellow cards were high: 9 total in the first (5-4) and 5 in the second (4-1). H2H suggests another Nashville win, but with low totals. Philly haven't scored in these two matches. However, coach continuity is there for both sides. Small sample size lowers confidence, but the trend is clear.

Small markets: Corners – Philly home avg 8.97 for, Nashville away avg 5.11 against. Total corners per match in Philly's home markers: 10.97. In Nashville's away markers: 9.44. The Over 9.5 line at 1.91 looks good. Yellow cards – Philly home avg 4.24 total, Nashville away avg 4.22, referee averages 4.13. The Under 4.5 line at 1.83 is tight, but given consistency, Under might be slight value if the match is disciplined. Fouls – Philly home avg 27.07, Nashville away avg 18.00. That's a big difference, but not a market. Shots on target – Philly home avg 7.44, Nashville away avg 8.00. Philly's home markers show 4-14 SoT range. First half patterns: Philly home avg 1.66 total goals in first half, but Nashville away avg 0.00 (in 3 matches, all first halves were 0-0). That's a strong trend: Nashville away first halves are sterile. Under 0.5 first half goals at around 2.50? Not directly available but could be inferred. 1H corners: Philly home avg 4.06, Nashville away avg 4.56 – both moderate. The data suggests a slow start.

Bookmaker odds show Philadelphia home win at 2.32, away win at 2.85, draw at 3.50. After margin removal, fair probabilities are Home 40.4%, Draw 26.8%, Away 32.9%. My estimated probabilities: Home 30%, Draw 30%, Away 40%. So away win has slight value (estimated 40% vs 32.9% fair). But given motivation and squad rotation, I lean towards Philly getting a result. Under 2.5 is at 1.85, Over 2.5 at 1.95. Expected goals: Philly home xG 1.58, Nashville away xG against 0.50, so total around 2.08, but Nashville attack overperforms. Estimated probability Under 2.5: 55% (fair odds 1.82), so 1.85 offers small value. BTTS Yes at 1.75 (implied 57%), No at 2.00 (50%). Estimated BTTS Yes: 40% – no value. Corners Over 9.5 at 1.91 (implied 52%). Estimated Over 9.5: 65% given Philly's corner dominance. That's strong value. Cards Under 4.5 at 1.83: estimated 55% but limited data. Overall, corners seems the best value.