Pisa vs Genoa - AI Prediction & Analysis

Pisa are dead last with 18 points from 32 games, 18 points behind Genoa in 14th. At 84% of the season played, relegation is a foregone conclusion for Pisa – their motivation is shot, morale is in the gutter. Genoa are safely mid-table at 36 points, with nothing to play for except avoiding embarrassment. Their upcoming schedule includes tough games against Atalanta and Milan, so rotation or a lack of intensity is a real risk. The key difference: Pisa have no hope left, Genoa have no urgency. This isn't a high-stakes battle; it's a dead rubber where both sides might just go through the motions. Pisa might try to salvage pride at home, but with their form, it's unlikely to translate into a win. Genoa, without pressure, could take their foot off the gas. Betting conclusion: Expect a low-energy affair with minimal attacking intent from both sides.

Pisa's form is abysmal. In their last seven matches, they've lost six, with only a 3-1 win over Cagliari that was inflated by a red card. Home form is just as bad: one win in five, and they're underperforming xG by -0.57 on average – they create chances but can't finish. For instance, against Torino at home: 0-1 loss with 0.32 xG, dominated but toothless. Against Cagliari: 3-1 win but with 2.47 xG and a red card skewing the result. Genoa have been inconsistent but fair in xG terms. Away, they managed a 2-0 win at Hellas Verona with just 0.59 xG, showing they can grind out results. Their xG divergence is minimal (-0.04 away), meaning they score what they create. Pisa's regression risk is high – they're due goals, but against Genoa's defense, it might not materialize. Betting conclusion: Pisa's poor finishing and Genoa's solidity point to low scores.

Pisa are missing key midfielder Marius Marin due to injury – without him, their midfield creativity drops significantly, reducing their ability to break down defenses. Genoa have a crisis with eight players unavailable, including key defenders Brooke Norton-Cuffy and Mattia Bani, and midfielders Mikael Ellertsson and Morten Frendrup. This decimates their defensive and midfield units, forcing coach Daniele De Rossi to patch up a lineup. The absences mean Genoa's organization suffers, especially in transition, while Pisa's attack is further weakened. With both teams missing crucial players, the overall quality on the pitch is reduced, leading to a scrappy, low-quality affair. Betting conclusion: Injuries compound the defensive nature, favoring a game with few clear chances.

This is a clash of two defensive, corner-heavy teams. Pisa average 42.2% possession at home, sitting in a low block and relying on counters and set-pieces. Genoa, away, average 58.6% possession, but their style is also defensive – they control the ball but don't take many risks. With both prioritizing defensive solidity, expect a slow tempo, few open chances, and a midfield battle. Pisa's low block will force Genoa to break them down, which they struggle with given their absentees. The possession disparity means Genoa will have the ball, but Pisa will sit deep, leading to a congested game with limited goalmouth action. Corners might be frequent due to set-piece reliance, but goals will be scarce. Betting conclusion: The tactical setup screams Under 2.5 and possibly a draw.

For Pisa at home, the 12 marker matches reveal a consistent pattern of low scoring. Against Torino: 0-1 loss with 0.32-1.83 xG – dominated but couldn't score. Vs Cagliari: 3-1 win but NPxG was 1.71-1.18, inflated by a red card. Vs Bologna: 0-1 loss, 0.47-0.64 xG – another tight affair. Vs Milan: 1-2 loss, 0.77-2.33 xG – outclassed. Vs Sassuolo: 1-3 loss, 1.06-2.26 xG. The average total xG is 2.52, but actual goals are lower due to poor finishing; 8 of 12 matches had under 2.5 goals. For Genoa away, only three matches: vs Hellas Verona: 2-0 win with 0.59-0.30 xG – a smash-and-grab. Vs Cremonese: 0-0 draw, 1.34-1.88 xG – a stalemate. Vs Cagliari: 3-3 draw, 1.42-0.90 xG with a red card – chaotic but high-scoring anomaly. The sample is small, so confidence is low, but it shows Genoa can be involved in low or high-scoring games; with key players out, low-scoring is more likely. The overlap: both teams struggle to score freely against defensive opponents, reinforcing the Under 2.5 trend.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: on 2026-01-03, Genoa drew 1-1 with Pisa. The stats are telling: xG was 0.62-0.54, total 1.16, with Pisa having 3 big chances to Genoa's 0. Pisa scored early, Genoa equalized, and it was a cagey affair with 7 corners for Pisa, 2 for Genoa. Both teams had similar coaches and squads, but with changes since then – Pisa has 4 player changes, Genoa 6. This match reinforces the defensive nature – low xG, few goals, and a draw outcome. Betting conclusion: The H2H supports a low-scoring draw, though the sample is tiny.

Small markets analysis: Total xG averages are 2.52 for Pisa home and 1.98 for Genoa away, pointing to Under 2.5. Corners: Pisa home averages 7.23 total, Genoa away 10.11, but Genoa's sample is small; bookmaker line is 8.5, making it a coin flip. Cards: Referee Valerio Crezzini averages 4.76 yellows per match, above the league baseline of 3.7, so cards Over 3.5 has value. 1H patterns: Pisa scores only 0.10 goals in first halves at home, Genoa scores 0.67 away; 1H total goals average is 0.53 for Pisa and 2.67 for Genoa, but Genoa's is inflated by small sample. 1H corners share: 32% for Pisa, 57% for Genoa, indicating Genoa start aggressively. For betting: focus on cards Over and 1H Under markets, but data is mixed for corners.

Bookmaker odds: Under 2.5 at 1.57, Over 2.5 at 2.38. Fair probabilities from margin removal: Home Win 29.1% (fair odds 3.43), Draw 30.6% (fair odds 3.27), Away Win 40.3% (fair odds 2.48). My probability estimates: Under 2.5 at 65% (fair odds 1.54), bookmaker offers 1.57 – EV = (0.65 * 1.57) - 1 = 0.0205, slight value. Draw at 40% (fair odds 2.50), bookmaker offers 3.10 – EV = (0.40 * 3.10) - 1 = 0.24, clear value. Odds movements show shortening for Pisa-related bets (e.g., Asian handicap Pisa from 1.98 to 1.80) and drifting for Genoa (e.g., Away Win from 2.20 to 2.35), indicating money leaning towards Pisa or draw. Betting conclusion: Value on Draw and Under 2.5.