Pisa vs Lecce - AI Prediction & Analysis

This is a classic six-pointer at the bottom of Serie A, but the desperation levels are wildly different. Pisa sit rock bottom with 18 points, 5 points from safety with only 4 games left. They have lost their last 5 matches and have won just twice all season. A loss here effectively ends their survival hopes, so the motivation is maxed out – but that doesn't fix their attacking issues. Lecce have 29 points, 4 clear of the drop zone, with a tough run-in including Juventus next. They'll be content with a draw but would prefer to win to build a buffer. Lecce's motivation is slightly lower because a draw isn't a disaster. However, both teams are poor going forward, so motivation might translate into defensive solidity rather than goalmouth action. The calendar also favors Lecce slightly – they have a winnable home game against Genoa after Juventus, while Pisa face Cremonese away then Napoli. So Lecce might prioritize not losing here.

Pisa are in freefall: 5 straight defeats, scoring just 2 goals in the last 5 matches. Their xG over the last 7 games is 1.21 per match, but they've averaged only 0.5 goals per game – clear underperformance. At home, they've lost 5 of the last 6, averaging 0.7 goals per game from 1.11 xG. The only win came against Cagliari when they had a man advantage for most of the game. Without that anomaly, their home form is a disaster. Lecce have been grinding out results: draws against Hellas Verona and Fiorentina, a loss to Bologna (but 0-2 flattered Bologna). Their away form is better: 2 clean sheets in the last 4 away games, but they've only scored 1 goal in those 4. The xG for away matches is just 0.64 per game, and they've scored 0.5 per game – fair conversion. Both teams are struggling to create and finish chances.

Both teams are hit hard by injuries. Pisa are missing key midfielder Marius Marin, who is their engine in midfield. His absence removes a lot of cover for a leaky defense. Forward Matteo Tramoni is doubtful – he's their most creative outlet. Without him, they lack spark. Lecce have even more absences: key midfielder Joan González, key defender Kialonda Gaspar, and key midfielder Sadik Fofana are all out. That's the spine of the team. Their defense is weakened, but their style is to sit deep regardless. The squad changes from the last H2H: Pisa have 3 players different, Lecce have 6 – meaning Lecce's lineup has changed significantly. This could affect cohesion, but Di Francesco has drilled a defensive system that relies on structure rather than individual brilliance.

This is a clash of two defensive, low-possession teams. Pisa average 40% possession at home, Lecce 47% away. Both rely on set pieces and counter-attacks. Pisa take 12 shots per game at home but only 4.8 on target – poor accuracy. Lecce allow 10 shots away but only 2.6 on target. The match will likely be a midfield slog with few clear chances. Corners could be a factor: Pisa average 4.2 home corners, Lecce 3.7 away, but both concede plenty – total corners averages around 9 for both. Fouls will be high: Pisa commit 17 fouls per home game, Lecce 16 away. Cards will be frequent: referee Marco Guida averages 4.62 yellows per match, above the league average of 3.7. Expect a stop-start game with many set pieces. The tactical battle is about who can force an error from the other's defense. Goals from open play are unlikely; set pieces or penalties might decide it.

Examining Pisa's home marker matches against similar defensive opponents: vs Genoa (lost 1-2): xG 1.07-1.63, total xG 2.70, corners 10, cards 4. Genoa created much better chances but Pisa scored from a set piece. vs Cagliari (won 3-1): xG 2.47-1.18, total xG 3.65, corners 6, but this match had a red card to Cagliari after 37 minutes, skewing the numbers. Without the red, it would have been tighter. vs Cremonese (won 1-0): xG 0.92-0.97, total xG 1.89, corners 9, cards 6. A tight, low-scoring game decided by one moment. Pattern: Pisa's home markers average total xG 2.59, total corners 9.2, total cards 4.7. They rarely see high goal totals. For Lecce away markers: vs Hellas Verona (0-0): xG 0.64-0.32, total xG 0.96, corners 6, cards 7. A defensive stalemate. vs Cagliari (won 2-0): xG 1.38-1.19, total xG 2.57, corners 10, cards 4 – but this was a game where Cagliari dominated possession and lost due to poor finishing. vs Cremonese (lost 0-2): xG 0.92-2.08, total xG 3.00, corners 10, cards 3. vs Fiorentina (lost 1-0): xG 1.15-1.46, total xG 2.61, corners 8, cards 5. Pattern: Lecce away markers average total xG 2.13, total corners 8.3, total cards 5.2. Both patterns point to low-scoring, corner-heavy, card-heavy games. The overlap is clear: average total goals from markers is around 2.5-2.6 xG, but actual goals have been even lower. Under 2.5 looks solid.

Only one meeting this season: 2025-12-12 at Lecce, which Lecce won 1-0. The match was completely one-sided: xG 2.20-0.22, shots 21-5, corners 12-1, big chances 4-0. Lecce dominated but only scored one. Pisa offered nothing going forward. This suggests that when these teams meet, Lecce control the game but don't run up the score. Pisa at home might be slightly more competitive, but the historical data is thin. Both coaches are the same, but squad changes are significant – 3 for Pisa, 6 for Lecce. Still, the tactical approach should be similar: Lecce dominate possession (51% in that match) and create chances, but Pisa's defensive setup keeps it low-scoring.

For small markets: Corners – Pisa's home markers average 4.19 earned, 5.00 conceded, total 9.19. Lecce away markers average 3.67 earned, 4.67 conceded, total 8.34. The average total corners across both is around 9, consistent with the market line of 9.5. Over 9.5 is at 2.00 – the data suggests it's close to a coin flip, but with a slight lean to under given the standard deviation. Yellow cards – Pisa markers average 4.71 total, Lecce 5.22, referee Guida averages 4.62. Over 4.5 cards is at around 1.83 (implied probability 55%). Given the high foul rates (combined 33 per match from markers), cards should be plentiful. Over 4.5 cards looks good. 1H markets: Pisa at home average 1.58 total goals in 1H, Lecce away average 0.33. That's a huge discrepancy, but Lecce's sample includes many 0-0 first halves. However, Lecce have conceded early in several away games. 1H corners: Pisa home markers average 5.03, Lecce away average 3.88. First half corners might be tricky. Given the defensive nature, first half under 1.5 goals could be considered, but odds are around 1.50 – no value.

The odds movement is dramatic. Under 2.5 has shortened from 2.38 to 1.61 – a 32% shift. That's a massive move, indicating heavy money on low goals. The market now prices Under 2.5 at 62% probability (fair odds 1.61). My estimate based on marker data and form: actual probability around 68%, fair odds 1.47. So there is still value at 1.61, but the margin is slimmer. Lecce win has shortened from 2.70 to 2.38, implying 42% probability. My estimate: Lecce win 40% (fair odds 2.50) – no value. Draw at 3.10 is slightly above my estimate of 30% (fair odds 3.33). Home win at 3.25 has drifted – my estimate is 30% (fair odds 3.33) – no value. The best value is in Under 2.5 and possibly cards. BTTS No at 1.80: marker data shows Pisa score in 1 of their last 5 home games, Lecce score in 2 of their last 5 away. BTTS occurred in only 1 of the 3 home markers and 1 of 4 away markers. Estimated probability: 67% for BTTS No, fair odds 1.49 – value at 1.80.