Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés - AI Prediction & Analysis

Everyone expects a Real Madrid rout. The numbers tell a different story. Real Madrid sit 2nd with 70 points, 37 clear of Alavés, but their motivation is clouded by a packed schedule—they face Real Betis away in just three days, triggering a medium rotation risk. Key players like Rodrygo are out, and with the title race tight, they might conserve energy. Alavés are 17th with 33 points, dangling above relegation by a thread. Every point is survival gold. Their next match is in 3.7 days, so low rotation risk—full focus here. The motivational edge is stark: Real Madrid could be complacent, Alavés desperate. This isn't just a formality; Alavés will fight for their lives, making this a potential banana skin. Back Alavés to cover or even snatch a goal.

Real Madrid's recent form is a mixed bag. At home, they've overperformed xG—avg 2.29 xG vs 2.6 goals scored, a +0.31 gap that screams regression. Look deeper: drew 1-1 with Girona despite 2.22 xG and 10 corners, showing wastefulness. Beat Elche 4-1 with just 1.37 xG—lucky finishing. Lost to Getafe 0-1 with 1.91 xG, highlighting struggles against low blocks. In last 7 overall, they've conceded in 5 matches, including a 4-3 loss to Bayern. Alavés, meanwhile, are scrappy away: drew 3-3 at Sociedad with 0.94 xG, won 3-4 at Celta with 1.84 xG, and lost 3-2 at Valencia with 2.79 xG. They're overperforming slightly (+0.22 goals vs xG overall) but create chances—avg 1.48 xG in last 7. Both teams leak goals, but Alavés can punch above their weight on the road.

Real Madrid's absences hurt. Rodrygo is out—a key forward who adds depth, though Mbappé and Vinicius start, so the attack remains lethal. Courtois missing means Lunin in goal, a downgrade that could cost them a clean sheet. Defensive rotations with Valdepeñas and Martínez out might not matter much given Rudiger and Militão are fit. Midfield is strong with Bellingham and Valverde. Alavés are worse off: key midfielders Abderrahman Rebbach and Carlos Benavídez are absent, crippling their defensive organization and transition play. Without them, they'll struggle to contain Real's midfield and launch counters. The bench is thin—rotation players missing too. This imbalance tilts the game toward Real's dominance, but Alavés' desperation could see them park the bus and hope for set-pieces. Expect Real to control, but Alavés' weakened midfield means more pressure on their defense.

This is a clash of two defensive, corner-heavy teams. Real Madrid avg 55.4% possession, Alavés 46.0%—both prioritize organization over flair. Real will dominate the ball, but Alavés will sit in a low block, exactly the setup Real has struggled against. Look at the Getafe loss: 0-1 with 1.91 xG. Alavés are card-heavy away, averaging 1.78 yellows in markers, and will foul to disrupt tempo. Set-pieces are key: Real avg 8.11 corners at home, Alavés concede 4.11 away, so corners should fly. The tempo will be slow, with Real probing and Alavés countering rarely. This screams a tactical grind—goals likely from dead balls or individual brilliance, not open play. Under 2.5 might be in play, but Alavés' away xG against of 1.79 suggests they can concede multiple. Expect a controlled but not explosive match.

Real Madrid's home markers reveal a pattern of dominance without blowouts. Vs Girona: 1-1 draw, xG 2.22-0.52, 10 corners, but only one goal—wasted chances against a deep block. Vs Elche: 4-1 win, xG 1.37-0.84, 5 corners, overperformance thanks to clinical finishing. Vs Rayo Vallecano: 2-1 win, xG 2.21-1.03, 9 corners, needed a penalty to secure it. In all three, BTTS occurred, and corners averaged 10.78 total. Real create big chances (2.56 avg) but convert inconsistently. Alavés' away markers show they can score against top teams but leak goals. Vs Atlético Madrid: 0-1 loss, xG 0.85-1.78, 6 corners, defended well but created little. Vs Villarreal: 1-3 loss, xG 0.94-1.50, 6 corners, scored but conceded heavily. Vs Barcelona: 1-3 loss, xG 1.59-2.24, 4 corners, again BTTS. They avg 1.04 xG for and 1.79 against away, with 5.56 corners. The overlap: Real dominate corners and xG, but Alavés find a goal in 2 of 3 markers. This points to Real winning but not keeping a clean sheet—BTTS Yes is a strong trend.

Only one meeting in the last 12 months: December 2025, Real Madrid won 2-1 away. The stats tell the story: xG 1.83-1.36, big chances 2-3, corners 7-5. Alavés had 3 big chances—they threatened and scored, while Real edged it. Real led 1-0 at HT, but Alavés fought back. Both coaches are the same, so tactical familiarity exists. Real's squad has 4 changes, Alavés 4, but key players like Mbappé were present then. This H2H confirms Alavés can score against Real, even in a loss. It wasn't a rout; it was a competitive match with BTTS. Given the continuity, expect a similar script: Real ahead, Alavés responding. No data for more matches, so confidence is medium, but this one data point aligns with marker patterns.

Small markets data from markers: xG totals are 2.67 for Real home and 2.83 for Alavés away, suggesting goal potential but not extreme. Corners: Real avg 8.11 for, 2.67 against; Alavés avg 5.56 for, 4.11 against—total corners avg 10.78 vs 9.67, both above league averages. Cards: Real avg 1.67 yellows, Alavés 1.78, with Alavés conceding more fouls (10.67 avg). 1H patterns: Real score 0.89 goals in first halves, Alavés 0.33; 1H xG is 0.81 total for Real, 1.27 for Alavés matches. Real dominate 1H corners (4.11 avg), Alavés have fewer (1.56). For betting: Corners Over 9.5 at 1.73 looks solid—Real's home avg is 10.78. Cards Over 3.5 at 1.83 is plausible given Alavés' card-heavy style. 1H Real to score at 1.67 is backed by 0.89 goals avg. Opponent individual totals: Alavés avg 1.04 xG away, so Over 0.5 goals at 1.80 aligns.

Bookmaker odds: Home Win 1.30, Draw 5.50, Away Win 10.00. Fair probabilities after margin removal: Home 73.2% (fair odds 1.37), Draw 17.3% (5.78), Away 9.5% (10.51). My estimate: Home Win 65% (fair odds 1.54), Draw 25% (4.00), Away 10% (10.00). Compare: Draw at 5.50 offers value—my 25% vs fair 18.2% (1/5.50), EV = (0.25 * 5.50) - 1 = 0.375, clear value. Home Win at 1.30: my 65% vs implied 76.9%, negative EV. For totals: Over 2.5 at 1.44, Under 2.5 at 2.75. My probability for Over 2.5 is 60% (fair odds 1.67), so bookmaker 1.44 is undervalued, no value. Under 2.5 at 2.75: my probability 40% (fair 2.50), slight value. BTTS Yes at 1.80: my probability 70% (fair 1.43), bookmaker 1.80 offers value—EV = (0.70 * 1.80) - 1 = 0.26. Odds movements: BTTS Yes shortened to 1.80, Over 2.5 shortened to 1.44, indicating market bias toward goals, but data supports BTTS more.