SJK vs VPS - AI Prediction & Analysis

Both teams enter this mid-table clash with clear motivation, albeit from different angles. SJK sit 11th with just 6 points from 9 matches, already 7 points adrift of VPS in 6th. For the home side, this is a must-not-lose to avoid slipping further into the relegation mire. Despite a leaky defense and poor results, SJK have shown they can create chances – they simply can't finish. VPS, meanwhile, are comfortably mid-table but still have ambitions for a top-half finish. They have a solid defensive record on the road, conceding only 0.95 xG away. However, their schedule is manageable, and a win here could push them closer to the European spots. The point gap between the teams (7 pts) suggests VPS have a slight edge in quality, but SJK's desperation could level the playing field. Neither side has cup distractions, so full focus is on this league fixture. The calendar is light – this is a standalone match – so no rotation concerns. Both coaches (Jarkko Wiss for SJK, Jussi Nuorela for VPS) have full squad availability, making this a straight tactical battle.

SJK have been woeful, winning just once in 9 league matches (1W-3D-5L). Their underlying numbers, however, tell a different story. In their last 7 matches, they've averaged 1.81 xG per game but scored only 0.75 – a massive underperformance of -1.06 xG per match. At home, it's even starker: 2.07 xG created but just 1.29 goals scored. That regression risk is sky-high. The 3-0 win over Mariehamn in April and the 1-1 draws against Ilves and FF Jaro show they can dominate. But defeats to Inter Turku (1-3) and AC Oulu (0-1) highlight their finishing woes. VPS, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but better: 3W-4D-2L, with a similar xG underperformance (-0.74). Their away numbers show they create less (1.14 xG) but still concede few (0.95 xG). The 4-5 defeat at KuPS suggests they can score freely but also leak. Overall, both teams are due a goal-scoring correction, which points to goals in this match.

Both teams have clean injury reports with full squads available. SJK's 22-man roster includes all key players, notably their top scorer and creative midfielders. No rotation risk is expected as this is a crucial league game. VPS also have no absences among their 32 players. The absence of any key unavailabilities means both coaches can field their strongest XIs. This is a rarity in modern football and should lead to a high-quality contest from a tactical perspective. The lack of suspensions or injuries means no forced changes, so the patterns we see in their recent form and markers should hold true.

This is a classic clash of two defensive, corner-heavy teams. SJK average 57.7% possession at home, while VPS average 43% on the road – a significant disparity. SJK like to dominate the ball and build slowly, while VPS prefer to sit deep and hit on the counter. Both prioritize set pieces: SJK average 7.09 corners per home game, VPS 4.22 away, but VPS concede plenty (4.44 away corners). This suggests SJK will win a lot of corners – potentially double digits. VPS, despite their defensive style, have shown they can create chances (2.00 xG away markers), but they struggle to convert (0.4 goals away). The tactical battle will revolve around whether SJK can break down a low block. Given they've struggled to score despite high xG, VPS's defense should hold firm. However, VPS's own finishing issues mean this could be a low-scoring affair, but the xG totals suggest otherwise. The corner market looks promising.

Let's break down SJK's home markers. Against AC Oulu (0-1 loss), they had 2.31 xG to 1.38, 7 corners, but couldn't score. Against Inter Turku (1-3), they produced 3.64 xG but allowed 1.12 xG and had 10 corners. The 1-1 draw with Ilves saw 2.45 xG and 10 corners again. These three matches alone show SJK dominate xG and corners but concede on the counter. The 3-0 win over Mariehamn (1.69 xG, 7 corners) was their only clean sheet. VPS's away markers are limited (only 3) and include a 6-0 thrashing of SJK in a friendly (6 goals from 6 shots on target – an anomaly). In league matches: at Lahti (1-1), they had 1.31 xG for and conceded 1.25 xG, with only 1 corner. At Mariehamn (1-0 win), they had 3.37 xG and 8 corners. The pattern: VPS are clinical when given chances but don't create many corners away. The tactical pattern from markers: SJK dominate at home (high xG, high corners) but are vulnerable to counter-attacks. VPS defend deep but can be exposed to corners. Overlap: both teams create chances (total xG 3.54 for SJK home, 2.95 for VPS away), suggesting a goal-laden game. However, the consistency of corners for SJK is moderate, but 4 of 8 matches had 10+ corners. For VPS away, only 1 of 3 had 10+ corners. So corners favoring SJK is a safer bet.

Only two H2H matches in the last 12 months – both recent. In February 2026 (friendly), SJK hosted VPS and lost 0-6, with VPS scoring 6 from 6 shots on target – a freak result. In August 2025 (league), SJK won 2-1 away, with xG 2.23-0.90, corners 10-8, and cards 4-5. That match was more representative: SJK edged the xG but both teams created chances. The friendly result is an outlier but shows VPS can punish SJK on the break. With both coaches still in charge (Wiss and Nuorela), tactical continuity exists. The pattern from these limited matches: high xG totals (3.13 average) and high corners (13.33 average). That supports the Over 2.5 and Over 9.5 corners angle.

Small markets show SJK's home stats: avg xG total 3.54, corners 9.53, shots on target 9.15, fouls 22.36. VPS away: xG total 2.95, corners 8.66, shots on target 7.67, fouls 25.00. The totals suggest a busy match. First-half patterns: SJK concede early (1.40 1H goals against at home) while VPS score early away (1.44 1H goals for). This points to a first-half goal. Combine with low 1H goals for SJK (0.40) – VPS likely to score first. Yellow cards: both teams average around 2-3 cards per match, but league average is 3.5. Low end likely.

No bookmaker odds data available. Without odds, we cannot calculate expected value. However, based on data patterns, we can identify markets that are likely undervalued. The high xG totals and regression risk suggest Over 2.5 goals is a strong candidate. Similarly, SJK's corner dominance at home indicates Over 9.5 corners for SJK or Over 9.5 match corners. Given the small VPS away sample (3 matches), confidence is medium. We will note that odds are missing and treat this as a qualitative analysis.