SSC Napoli vs Bologna - AI Prediction & Analysis

Napoli sit second with 70 points, comfortably in Champions League spots, but there's pride and home crowd pressure. Conte's side want to finish strong, especially after a 2-0 defeat to Lazio at home last month. Bologna are 10th, 21 points behind, with nothing to play for. Their season is effectively over, and with tough fixtures against Atalanta and Inter ahead, motivation is questionable. Napoli have the clear edge in intensity.

Napoli's recent home form looks strong on paper (4-0 vs Cremonese, 2-1 vs Torino, 1-0 vs Milan) but they are overperforming xG by +0.63 per game at home – a regression red flag. Bologna's away form is dire: lost 4 of last 5 away markers, failed to score in 3 of those. They created just 0.83 xG per game on the road, while conceding 1.82. Both sides are due a correction.

Napoli are without Lukaku, a key rotation forward, plus Meret, Gilmour, Anguissa, Olivera. But Conte's depth is solid: De Bruyne and Højlund lead the line. Bologna miss key winger Cambiaghi and defender Casale. The absences hit Bologna harder given their thin squad. Napoli's XI is stronger.

Both teams are described as defensive and corner-heavy, but Napoli dominate possession (57.9% vs 46.6%). Bologna will sit deep and look to counter. Napoli's home markers show they struggle to break down disciplined low blocks (0-0 vs Parma, 1-0 vs Sassuolo). Bologna's away markers show they concede plenty of shots (14.3 per game) but also limit big chances? They concede 4.1 big chances per game – a lot. However, Napoli's own attacking numbers are modest (1.03 xG per home marker). Expect a tactical battle with few clear openings.

Napoli's home markers: The 0-0 vs Parma is telling – Parma sat deep, Napoli had 1.37 xG but only 1 big chance. The 1-0 vs Sassuolo was similar (0.58 xG). Against stronger sides like Lazio (0-2) and Roma (2-2), Napoli were outplayed. When they faced weaker defensive teams like Cremonese (4-0) and Atalanta (3-1), they scored freely. Bologna away markers: They lost 0-2 to Juventus (0.54 xG), 0-4 to Aston Villa (0.96 xG), and 1-3 to Inter (0.85 xG). Only against Como (1-1) did they get a point. The pattern: Bologna rarely score on the road (avg 0.83 xG, 0 goals in 3 of last 5 away markers). They concede but not always heavily – Juve and Inter kept clean sheets. The tactical pattern: Bologna struggle to create but defend in numbers; Napoli can be frustrated by disciplined defenses.

Two meetings this season: Napoli won 2-0 at home in December (xG 2.34-0.70, 5-1 big chances). Bologna won 2-0 at home in November (xG 0.24-0.92, 0-3 big chances). Both home wins, suggesting home advantage is crucial. Neither side dominated away from home.

1H patterns: Napoli average 1.40 goals in the first half at home, Bologna average 0.00 away – a huge disparity. Corners: Napoli home 6.94 for, Bologna away 1.97 for – total around 8.9, supporting Over 8.5. Yellow cards: Napoli home avg 3.11 total, Bologna away 3.23 – but referee Piccinini averages 4.64 per match, so cards could exceed 3.5. However, marker consistency suggests under 3.5 more likely.

Home win is priced at 1.53, fair probability 61.8% after margin removal – no clear value. Under 2.5 at 1.91 (implied 52.4%) and BTTS No at 1.75 (implied 57.1%) look more promising given the defensive styles and Bologna's away scoring woes. Corners Over 8.5 at 1.73 (57.8%) aligns with marker data. 1st Half Home Win at 2.05 (48.8%) is interesting given Bologna's 1H struggles.